PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Lol IDK if they know what SAR actually does but radio waves cannot pass through an array of conductors with spacing much less than the wavelength. That's what the grid on the microwave oven does. And that is what wet ground is. China has thousands of road and rail tunnels in jungle or forest conditions.
They only have 5 military SAR satellites in SSO.
China has at least 10 SAR satellites in SSO or LEO. But there's also a SAR satellite in GEO staring at them.
There is nowhere to hide. All enemy assets are tracked at radar refresh rate. Any unusual activity in sub pens means silos go on hair trigger alert and warnings go out to Russia and North Korea. Who knows what they'd do with that info?
BTW I'd be very impressed if the US is tailing Chinese subs in Bohai - which is 18 m deep and shallow enough to see the bottom with your eyes from the air.
Doesn't mean Chinese subs have the same problem, as there's only Chinese planes overflying Bohai.
Doesn't mean Chinese subs have the same problem, as there's only Chinese planes overflying Bohai.
self inflicted!
Press all of them at once!
Yes, in the 2030s, I see the US withdrawing support for Taiwan.
In the past 3 years, we've already seen the US and Japan walk back statements that in the event of a Taiwan-China conflict, they have the option of going to war with China.
That leaves potential economic sanctions, which are still enough of a deterrent given that China can live with the status quo and doesn't want a war which will inevitably district from domestic development. In the longer-term, that economic development will translates into much greater military capability and political/economic influence anyway.
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Just going back to the topic of Israel.
Suppose China were to formally recognise a Palestinian state? I reckon most of the world would support this. For example:
1. The Australian government is formally floating this idea in the press
2. Spain is pushing for this as well. And inside the EU, you've got Spain, Belgium, Ireland and Slovakia pushing against Germany, Austria, Hungary etc. And remember the view outside of the West is generally far more pro-Palestine
3. In a prior UN resolution over Israeli colonists trying to take over the West Bank, it was literally every single country in the world voting against Israel, with the sole exception of the USA
4. Even in the US, 55% of Americans disapprove of Israel's actions in Gaza
It should be clear that decades of Israeli military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank haven't worked, and that the conflicts on Israel's borders will not stop until either the Palestinians have their own state or the Palestinians are full citizens of Israel.
Given that there would be more Palestinians than Jews in such a Greater Israel, a democratic Israel would cease being a Jewish State. The alternative is full-on apartheid in Israel which isn't going to work either.
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So if China (and others) were to recognise a Palestinian state (at least in the West Bank), what would happen?
The Palestinians could demand the removal of the Israeli Army and 500,000 Jewish colonists from the West Bank. My guess is that Israel would resist the removal of its colonists, as Israeli society has taken a sharp turn towards the conservative, religious right over the past 2 decades. Plus the demographic and political trends are for Israel to become even more so in the future.
At a minimum, these Israeli Army bases supporting those Jewish colonists in the West Bank become valid targets.
Rationally, it is not in US interests to be dragged down by supporting such Israeli actions and siding with the bad guys. But my guess is that the Israel Lobby would still be powerful enough to convince US politicians into supporting Israel's colonial oppression of Palestine.
lcloo
Captain
China recognised the State of Palestine in 1988. The embaasy of the State of Palestine is located at 2, Dongshan road, Sanlitun, Chaoyang District, Beijing.
The embassdor is Fariz Mehdawi.
Well, that makes it easier for Palestine to formally request assistance
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The Iranians gave the Americans and friends a 72h advanced warning of the attack. The Iranian counter strike was intentionally designed to not cause significant damage. Most of the drones were shot down by aircraft not SAMs.
Trying to apply that to other more realistic scenarios would be like thinking actors would do well in real sword duals because they managed to do a flashy choreographed fight scene on TV.
The intercept rate of Shaheed type drones is entirely irrelevant when effectively all of Taiwan’s air defences are expected to be obliterated by the PLA’s opening salvo of advanced missiles. By that logic LGBs are worthless as any half decent SHORAD system should be able to achieve near 100% intercept rates against them.
China can easily produce ridiculous quantities of Shaheed drones, but it doesn’t need to resort to such crude means when it has conventional overmatch across the board. It will use conventional missiles to destroy Taiwan’s AD and C&C capabilities and then swarms of conventional UCAVs will move in to comb the island for anything and everything worth hitting while manned fast jets operate as QRF to rapidly respond to any attacks against UCAVs and to drop heavier ordinances on worthy targets.
The only challenge would be the expected direct involvement of the U.S. in combat. If it was just Taiwan, regular PLA training exercises would be more taxing.