PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Mainland Maritime police rescued two Taiwanese fishermen who fell overboard in the general vicinity recently. One of them is in service with ROC Army. Was this an attempt at espionage?

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Apparently Mainland didn’t return them so that was a misreporting. Did they defect again?
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Apparently Mainland didn’t return them so that was a misreporting. Did they defect again?
Maybe they sent the guy who swam over to Xiamen last year to talk to these two?
Surely there must be some military regulation against active service people from just taking a boat out and fish in such sensitive areas. This incident doesn't install much confidence in military discipline in these outlying islands.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
CMSA doing their thing around Kinmen:
50466893ly1hnwial13iwj20wi0l67dx.jpg
I suppose these days if you want to swim over to Xiamen holding basketballs it's a lot safer with all these patrols, you'll get picked up by one of these very quickly instead of having to swim all the way like in the old days.
 
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aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
I really think that military observers in the US are literally all in on SSNs as they realise that due to saturation cheaper fires, mathematics and the overwhelming advantage that land based radars/EW without power output restrictions give to China because of the tyranny of distance their surface fleet/air force just can't defeat China. If SSNs didn't exist then I think most would acknowledge its a wrap.

This is why the 095s are so important. When they come out and the admirals reveal that it's as good as the Virginia there is going to be serious discussions in the US about coming to terms with their inability to prevent AR.

I can't imagine the unbelievable cope we will see from think tanks in 2031 when the 095s have outnumbered/are going to outnumber the Virginias, the Chinese destroyer/warship fleet has more VLS cells and greater tonnage and the PLAAF has at least an equal amount of 5th/6th gens as the US.

At that point how would you justify an intervention when a loss is guaranteed?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I really think that military observers in the US are literally all in on SSNs as they realise that due to saturation cheaper fires, mathematics and the overwhelming advantage that land based radars/EW without power output restrictions give to China because of the tyranny of distance their surface fleet/air force just can't defeat China. If SSNs didn't exist then I think most would acknowledge its a wrap.

This is why the 095s are so important. When they come out and the admirals reveal that it's as good as the Virginia there is going to be serious discussions in the US about coming to terms with their inability to prevent AR.

I can't imagine the unbelievable cope we will see from think tanks in 2031 when the 095s have outnumbered/are going to outnumber the Virginias, the Chinese destroyer/warship fleet has more VLS cells and greater tonnage and the PLAAF has at least an equal amount of 5th/6th gens as the US.

At that point how would you justify an intervention when a loss is guaranteed?

The use of SSNs in this case is just a bad fanfic plot device to salvage a win out of a hopeless situation.

In the scenario where the PLAAF enjoy air dominance and the PLAN owes the surface, any SSN that goes into the Taiwan strait is just on a suicide mission, with the most damage it can realistically expect to do from the pollution of its own destruction since PLA MPAs will easily find and kill it before it can get within torpedo range of anything worthwhile.
 
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