PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ember said:

Regarding the blockade strategy and the risk of intervention by the US and vassals, what if on the first day of the blockade China declares its nuclear doctrine null and void? Xi steps in front of a camera and says "any foreign attack on a Chinese ship or submarine will be met with an immediate nuclear strike on the port where the attacker came from".

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I still believe that the best strategy to deter the US is to behave like a madman with an itchy trigger finger. That's why Iran and North Korea are still standing and unharmed.

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SinoAmericanCW said:

What if the U.S. calls the bluff?



I'd argue that North Korea still stands primarily because Clinton refused to go to war with Pyongyang in the 1990s.

As for Iran, I'd say it's because the U.S. doesn't want a bigger, mountainous version of the Iraq occupation.

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ember said:

Regarding the shock-and-awe strategy where China launches thousands of missiles and drones on the first day of AR, what if the Taiwanese army deliberately hides its assets among civilians? Would the mainland risk killing thousands or even hundreds of thousands of Chinese compatriots on the first day of glorious reunification?

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ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Well I hate to sound cold blooded, but if you look at polls, less than 5% of Taiwanese support unification. Also, most Taiwanese consider themselves not only different from Mainlanders, but also superior culturally and politically, leading to a sub-racial cleavage characterized by malign us the “civilized” Taiwanese hating them the “rude, stupid, poor, and barbaric” Chinese others. They are pretty much similar to the HK blackshirts in 2019 (HK/Taiwanese supremacists in relation to Mainlanders). Such construction of nativist Taiwanese identity was the result of a combination of Japanese colonialism, Chiang’s dictatorship (White Terror), and US influence.

Now, for the CCP, the Party’s legitimacy lies in getting China’s land (lost since 1895) back and unify with the CHINESE (mostly conservative KMT Chinese nationalists, or other right-wing Confucian nationalists folks like me) population in the Island. For the rests who consider themselves as distinctively Taiwanese or Formosan, well, it is not the PLA’s mission to protect a staunchly hostile population standing in the line of fire. Nor was the US military’s mission to protect pro-communist Vietnamese civilians (or pro-Saddam Iraqis). Collateral damages are unavoidable in wars, and if you care too much about moral goodness and focus too much on avoiding civilian casualties, haha, your enemy will surely take advantage of your kindness. War is about achieving your political objectives by turning your opponents into piles of blood and guts, not trying to become Mother Theresa. This is also why I believe any military action in this context must absolutely be the last resort.

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ember said:

Regarding the blockade strategy and the risk of intervention by the US and vassals, what if on the first day of the blockade China declares its nuclear doctrine null and void? Xi steps in front of a camera and says "any foreign attack on a Chinese ship or submarine will be met with an immediate nuclear strike on the port where the attacker came from".

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Hood_Rat said:

Worth noting that William Lai, the DPP candidate, even post invasion, declared himself the Taiwanese Zelensky. He explicitly called out Zelensky's strategy of arresting and harassing oligarchs and politicians of the opposition and reforming the education system along the lines the Ukrainians did in the 2010s (remember the Hitler Youthesque programs?) as an inspiration for the DPP.

Most of the people here who are arguing that people juiced up on notions of civilizational and racial supremacy will just lie down and surrender after you whack them real hard just once probably wouldn't have been out of place in the Russian general staff in January of 2022; it is a fantasy, a beautiful one but a fantasy nonetheless.

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OTCDebunker said:

There is one thing I'm a little puzzled on though.

Ok so if you go through this full thread you already know that this war won't just be for Taiwan. Just like how the assassination of Franz Ferdinand wasn't just an Austro-Hungarian affair. It quickly bloomed to encompass the 'world'.

Same thing here, it begins as "tAiWanesE fREedUmb" but will be about whether or not America and it's whores can be kicked out of everything west of the 1IC.

What do we all think North Korea's strategy is going to look like?

As soon as this war starts in its full and first chapter all of East Asia will be shooting at each other, and obviously nobody is gonna believe for second that North Korea is just going to chillax and do nothing while South Korea is ripe for the taking having dedicated likely most of its military to whatever the white slavemasters in Washington D.C. command them to do.

I have to admit I don't know enough about either Koreas military to confidently say if one side or the other can gain a significant advantage even IF we assume that the bulk or majority of South Korean military assets are committed against us.

Plus, it certainly lightens the workload if north Korea is able to singlehandedly hold down their territory and at the very least ensure that Zhongnanhai does not have to worry about any serious incursion from the other side of the Yalu River once again.

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