PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ChongqingHotPot92 said:

Technology has indeed changed, and it is not POSSIBLE for PLA to win in a Taiwan contingency, but I think it is a matter timing, overwhelming firepower within an extremely short span of time (hours, not even days), COMPLETE incapacitation of blue forces (especially air defences) within hours before reinforcements (from US and Japan) could mobilize, and capture of key landing spots (especially ports for unloading armour) BEFORE the arrival of reinforcements. If the PLA cannot achieve all of these objectives within hours after the first barrage, China could risk losing the war before it even starts. In other words, the PLA would need to completely establish new status quos in Taiwan within a few hours completely to its favour. Or the situation would just turn into a war of attrition (with full US, Australian, Japanese, and Indian involvement, so two front war for China) lasting months before returning to status quo ante bellum. The current ROCA strategy is for Taiwan to last for at least a week, and the PLA's job is to stop that within a matter of hours. Otherwise as soon as the QUAD gets its forces in order and start flying to toward Taiwan (in Jai Hind's case, open up a new front in the Himalayas), it would be game over. . Thus, I believe it is possible to win, but the first wave of attack better punch above its weight, or else...

As with amphibious landings, the PLARF and the PLAGF's PCL-161 units (and PLAAF units as well) would need to closely coordinate with the landing force to "clean" the proximities of each landing sites and ports with cluster and thermobaric munitions. The amount of joint force collaboration and firepower needed in this scenario would be unprecedented even for the US military.

Honestly, the speed, firepower, and joint-force collaboration needed in this scenario would be unprecedented in human history. Definitely extremely challenging for the PLA, but it is not impossible.

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actually, Taiwan is only secondary in an actual Taiwan scenario. Bomb their air defense, ports, fuel storage and electricity, which is much easier than attacking mobile ground forces, and they starve. Taiwan is 70% food import dependent and 97% energy import dependent.

Now adversaries have a choice: watch Taiwan starve then surrender and suffer a PR blow 100x worse than Suez, or go on the offensive and invade. Invading China is the only way to stop Taiwan from starving. As proven by Ukraine and Iraq, even with air superiority it's almost impossible to stop mobile MLRS and SRBM TELs from shooting stationary targets like port machinery. But if they fail at invading China their expeditionary forces get crippled and they lose the physical basis of imposing hegemony.

it would be very difficult to establish air superiority over not just Fujian but Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Guangdong as well. That's all within the range of SRBMs like DF-15. They'll also have to establish naval supremacy in the Taiwan Strait to sweep mines. So they can't do a 'light' attack. They commit all or nothing if they want Taiwan back.

India can even be ignored at the border. There's no road from the Indian border to anywhere of value in Tibet. Bait them into the Tibetan tundra, bomb the mountainous supply lines behind them, they won't even have anywhere to surrender. They'll just starve.

I seriously believe that people here need to get rid of any notion, belief and/or hope that any kind of direct military conflict between China and the US&LC in the WestPac (whether that be due to Taiwan, South China Sea, Diaoyu, etc) would be a "Blitzkreig" "lightining war" "72 hours/100 hours/6 days war" for China.

Instead, we should be realistic. That is, China should be fully prepared to fight a long, attritional, dual-symmetry and multi-dimensional Pacific War 2.0.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

I seriously believe that people here need to get rid of any notion, belief and/or hope that any kind of direct military conflict between China and the US&LC in the WestPac (whether that be due to Taiwan, South China Sea, Diaoyu, etc) would be a "Blitzkreig" "lightining war" "72 hours/100 hours/6 days war" for China.

Instead, we should be realistic. That is, China should be fully prepared to fight a long, attritional, dual-symmetry and multi-dimensional Pacific War 2.0.

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This is the correct take.

I would go further and suggest that any Taiwan contingency should be understood as the beginning of a protracted, generalized hegemonic war with the U.S. and (at a minimum) its East Asian treaty allies (i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia and, more likely than not, the Philippines).

Winning such a war would not be easy, or even guaranteed.

In any event, it would usher in a completely transformed world order and would require an all-of-society effort for victory to be conceivable.

I think Chinese strategy can be broadly split into 2 types.

First type is the hope of reclaiming Taiwan with minimum bloodshed. Lets say China is aiming to be strong enough to deter any foriegn intervention from happening. In this case simply winning is not sufficient, China must be strong enough that no one even dare to entertain the idea of interference. This is very difficult. China must grow more than 10 years to even try this. The alternative is some sort of collapse happening to US that cripple it more than current trajectory.

The second strategy assume interference as almost certainty regardless of force disparity. Perhaps through idealogical reasons Americans will attempt to stop China even knowing high chance of failure. Under this framework China must be ready for a war of attrition. The good news is if China is forced to committ, then it may as well committ bigger than simply reclaim Taiwan. Under this scenario China should seek to evict US out of East Asia completely. By that I mean all the way to the pacific islands. If China must earn its victory through hardship, it may as well exploit more from the victory if it were to happen.

I would say 2nd scenario is the most likely outcome. Western economy in cold war was much superior to Soviet Union, but it did not stop Soviet to be a credible threat. I admit the first scenario is sort of wishful on Chinese behalf. We humans naturally prefer the happiest outcome. But if history taught us anything case 2 is far more likely. I don't think US is going anywhere unless it go down like Soviet Union. Even if China has strong military advantage it will not stop US bashing its head despite disadvantage. This level of humiliation is too much for Americans to accept without some fight.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

I seriously believe that people here need to get rid of any notion, belief and/or hope that any kind of direct military conflict between China and the US&LC in the WestPac (whether that be due to Taiwan, South China Sea, Diaoyu, etc) would be a "Blitzkreig" "lightining war" "72 hours/100 hours/6 days war" for China.

Instead, we should be realistic. That is, China should be fully prepared to fight a long, attritional, dual-symmetry and multi-dimensional Pacific War 2.0.

Click to expand...

TK3600 said:

I think Chinese strategy can be broadly split into 2 types.

First type is the hope of reclaiming Taiwan with minimum bloodshed. Lets say China is aiming to be strong enough to deter any foriegn intervention from happening. In this case simply winning is not sufficient, China must be strong enough that no one even dare to entertain the idea of interference. This is very difficult. China must grow more than 10 years to even try this. The alternative is some sort of collapse happening to US that cripple it more than current trajectory.

The second strategy assume interference as almost certainty regardless of force disparity. Perhaps through idealogical reasons Americans will attempt to stop China even knowing high chance of failure. Under this framework China must be ready for a war of attrition. The good news is if China is forced to committ, then it may as well committ bigger than simply reclaim Taiwan. Under this scenario China should seek to evict US out of East Asia completely. By that I mean all the way to the pacific islands. If China must earn its victory through hardship, it may as well exploit more from the victory if it were to happen.

I would say 2nd scenario is the most likely outcome. Western economy in cold war was much superior to Soviet Union, but it did not stop Soviet to be a credible threat. I admit the first scenario is sort of wishful on Chinese behalf. We humans naturally prefer the happiest outcome. But if history taught us anything case 2 is far more likely. I don't think US is going anywhere unless it go down like Soviet Union. Even if China has strong military advantage it will not stop US bashing its head despite disadvantage. This level of humiliation is too much for Americans to accept without some fight.

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I completely agree, there are two main strategies of either a small war on Taiwan or a new Pacific war with the US and its allies. But if we consider how incredibly costly what is essentially a third world war would be, then we should think about strategies China can take to avoid it. If all it takes is another 10 years of development to gain even more conventional as well as nuclear superiority, then why not wait 10 years? Given American history, they are likely to attack another country by then and waste their energy there

Am I missing something here?

I say this in regards to the India and QUADS thing.

Let's just focus on India for now...why in the everliving fuck would they go to war with us?

And yes that was a serious question.

Yes I am well aware of how much cringe white worshipping mental illness exists in their entire cultural identity. I was someone who shared a similar experience to all those east Asian tech bros who got screwed for promotion or whom saw their projects derailed at work because an Indian CTO or CFO would only promote Indians and give contracts to Indian companies overseas. No I was not a tech bro myself. Just something similar, sort of.

And I'm also well aware of how badly they wish they were white and that's why they serve white people's interests so much.

None of that means that they will actually go to war against us just over Taiwan of all things.

Even IF the westerners asked for their help.

This is real life and not a Tom Clancy plotline or a Hollywood trash tier writing. Countries going to war and especially countries going to war against a formidable opponent (even in the minds of the dumbest of the JAI HINDS they know that fighting us is downright suicidal) like China just simply does not happen unless it's for VERYYYYY good reason(s).

And in India's case so-called Taiwanese freedom is not even in the minds of the wildest fantasy fictions possessing of the faintest shadow of enough value to go to war with China over.

For that matter I personally believe that no one other than the US, Japan, and possibly South Korea would ever consider differently either. And yes I mean even other US allies would similarly not want to fight and die on behalf of Taiwan of all places.

If nothing else look at Ukraine. How many of all those NATO warmongers and their war loving citizens who are also Russophobic AS FUCK are actually clamoring for full scale war with Russia themselves?

None!

They are happy to use Ukrainians like StarCraft players use Zerglings or Terran Marines in a casual match, but as for actually having to fight and die for Ukraine themselves.

*crickets crickets crickets crickets...silence*

And Ukrainians are white christians.

Now do any of you truly believe that they will die for Taiwanese...a people who are very obviously neither white nor Christian? Lol like come on, seriously.

I'm not sure how much of this forum actually lives in America, and even then how much of this forum has spent enough time and enough socializing hours with Americans to fully understand them, but the real truth of Americans is that they are like the school kid you knew as a child who always tells everyone about how he would totally be a hero if something tragic happened and he was in the middle of it...and everyone knew full well that he would be the first kid to cry, piss his pants, and then shit himself too out of sheer terror.

That is why their government is so obsessively pumping propaganda of American Exceptionalism to them, but also why they (the American people) like to gobble up the propaganda so much too. Ever wonder why propaganda is so successfully brainwashing Americans? Because it's what they wanted to hear anyways.

And for this same exact reason it's why at least their allies won't actually choose to war with China. Propaganda will never beat material reality in a head to head battle with each other.

Now do I believe that there won't be any war whatsoever? Maybe not that peacefully.

America may or could go to war with China if nothing else because of just how hateful and bigoted they are, and we present the perfect enemy for their paranoid minds since well...they can't fight the Arabs and the Muslims again.

I do believe, for the record, that both Japan and South Korea will war with China IF the Americans war with us.

Japan because they are no different from the monsters that did Nanjing, and South Korea because quite frankly North Korea will see this as the perfect chance to strike at the South. Honestly, it prolly kind of is.

And with that being said I have to say that too many people here are missing other parts of the story.

If armed reunification is what happens then the truth is that this will be a war for the entirety of the 1IC up to and including Japan.

Look I know this sounds bad, and I will concede that what I'm about to say may be an uncomfortable truth for many to accept. It is still the truth nonetheless.

China would be very happy to get revenge back on Japan. Plain and simple.

Is it morally the coolest thing ever. Lol it's revenge ok? Not the most complicated feeling in the world.

But if you don't believe that the very first time a Japanese military member so much as wounds one of us that all of China will not respond with anger the likes of which only being pent up for nearly a 100 years can explode forth with. Then you are 100% mistaken here..more than 100% even.

Whether you agree or disagree with the sentiment is beside the point, and quite frankly I would go so far as to say that maybe there really is some cosmic entity or force who has at least some kind of sense of justice even if it may appear wholly unfathomable to us...or maybe that's just crazy talk?

And if you still don't believe me then realize this. That America can only war with China if they do so through deployment points of either Okinawa, Japan, South Korea, or Guam. All of those besides Guam requires that you basically might as well enter within the limits of the 1IC. And of course China won't just stand by as they enter within combat distance. So ya even if there wasn't that whole bad blood thing between china and Japan well there's no choice because they would be passing their forces through an area that makes it very easy to attack them.

This war will be much longer than a few days as people have pointed out, but it will be longer because China will be fighting the Korean War 2.0 and the REAL operation downfall (America's name for the plan to invade Japanese homeland), and not because dueling in the Taiwan strait happens or because of brutal CQC on Taiwan Island itself.

TK3600 said:

I think Chinese strategy can be broadly split into 2 types.

First type is the hope of reclaiming Taiwan with minimum bloodshed. Lets say China is aiming to be strong enough to deter any foriegn intervention from happening. In this case simply winning is not sufficient, China must be strong enough that no one even dare to entertain the idea of interference. This is very difficult. China must grow more than 10 years to even try this. The alternative is some sort of collapse happening to US that cripple it more than current trajectory.

The second strategy assume interference as almost certainty regardless of force disparity. Perhaps through idealogical reasons Americans will attempt to stop China even knowing high chance of failure. Under this framework China must be ready for a war of attrition. The good news is if China is forced to committ, then it may as well committ bigger than simply reclaim Taiwan. Under this scenario China should seek to evict US out of East Asia completely. By that I mean all the way to the pacific islands. If China must earn its victory through hardship, it may as well exploit more from the victory if it were to happen.

I would say 2nd scenario is the most likely outcome. Western economy in cold war was much superior to Soviet Union, but it did not stop Soviet to be a credible threat. I admit the first scenario is sort of wishful on Chinese behalf. We humans naturally prefer the happiest outcome. But if history taught us anything case 2 is far more likely. I don't think US is going anywhere unless it go down like Soviet Union. Even if China has strong military advantage it will not stop US bashing its head despite disadvantage. This level of humiliation is too much for Americans to accept without some fight.

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The main difference is that I don’t think there is such a thing as minimal bloodshed, at least not as something you can plan on. Just look at what happened to the Russians thinking that way.

Either don’t shed blood, or shed so much of it so fast the other side cannot maintain any illusions of winning no matter how much mental gymnastics they perform.

So, the options are, peaceful reunification, or armed reunification. In the case of armed reunification, the PLA cannot pull its punches, the enemy can surrender or be destroyed without mercy or hesitation.

In a way, that also applies to external interference. I think there is a high chance America might send one of its vassals in first to test the waters, Japan literally jumps out here. So, it is most likely imo that America will push Japan to send ships and planes to test China’s blockade first to gauge Chinese resolve. If that happens, China must respond robustly to leave no wiggle room, but do so in an above board way. I would suggest China declares that any breaches of its blockade will be viewed as a declaration of war. Once Japanese warships cross the line, China immediately declares war on Japan and sinks everything flying a Japanese flag afloat and shoots down everything Japanese in the air. Then give them an ultimatum of surrender or start suffering systematic strategic strikes all across its home islands. At the same time, China should tell the Americans that the Japanese brought this on themselves by deliberately engaging in an act of offensive hostility against China first, so any American Japanese defence treaties does not apply. Any American military active will be seen as an act of war by America.

American politicians love to operate in the grey zone and sneak stuff under the radar where the voters gives them mandate for one thing, and they interpret that as a mandate for something more. Take that away from them and make it crystal clear what they will be getting into. It will be too much to expect that would be enough to dissuade America, but there is an outside hope it might work. But the primary target for such action is not America, but it’s lackeys in Asia, Europe and elsewhere. Basically make it impossible to not think that getting involved means WWIII and see their people’s riot to stop it happening. America might have bought and paid for European elites, but enough of their people are still awake enough that they will literally fight to stop themselves being needlessly dragged into a world war. Even if it cannot dissuade their elites, it will massively degrade their ability to make meaningful contributions.

OTCDebunker said:

Am I missing something here?

I say this in regards to the India and QUADS thing.

Let's just focus on India for now...why in the everliving fuck would they go to war with us?

And yes that was a serious question.

Yes I am well aware of how much cringe white worshipping mental illness exists in their entire cultural identity. I was someone who shared a similar experience to all those east Asian tech bros who got screwed for promotion or whom saw their projects derailed at work because an Indian CTO or CFO would only promote Indians and give contracts to Indian companies overseas. No I was not a tech bro myself. Just something similar, sort of.

And I'm also well aware of how badly they wish they were white and that's why they serve white people's interests so much.

None of that means that they will actually go to war against us just over Taiwan of all things.

Even IF the westerners asked for their help.

This is real life and not a Tom Clancy plotline or a Hollywood trash tier writing. Countries going to war and especially countries going to war against a formidable opponent (even in the minds of the dumbest of the JAI HINDS they know that fighting us is downright suicidal) like China just simply does not happen unless it's for VERYYYYY good reason(s).

And in India's case so-called Taiwanese freedom is not even in the minds of the wildest fantasy fictions possessing of the faintest shadow of enough value to go to war with China over.

For that matter I personally believe that no one other than the US, Japan, and possibly South Korea would ever consider differently either. And yes I mean even other US allies would similarly not want to fight and die on behalf of Taiwan of all places.

If nothing else look at Ukraine. How many of all those NATO warmongers and their war loving citizens who are also Russophobic AS FUCK are actually clamoring for full scale war with Russia themselves?

None!

They are happy to use Ukrainians like StarCraft players use Zerglings or Terran Marines in a casual match, but as for actually having to fight and die for Ukraine themselves.

*crickets crickets crickets crickets...silence*

And Ukrainians are white christians.

Now do any of you truly believe that they will die for Taiwanese...a people who are very obviously neither white nor Christian? Lol like come on, seriously.

I'm not sure how much of this forum actually lives in America, and even then how much of this forum has spent enough time and enough socializing hours with Americans to fully understand them, but the real truth of Americans is that they are like the school kid you knew as a child who always tells everyone about how he would totally be a hero if something tragic happened and he was in the middle of it...and everyone knew full well that he would be the first kid to cry, piss his pants, and then shit himself too out of sheer terror.

That is why their government is so obsessively pumping propaganda of American Exceptionalism to them, but also why they (the American people) like to gobble up the propaganda so much too. Ever wonder why propaganda is so successfully brainwashing Americans? Because it's what they wanted to hear anyways.

And for this same exact reason it's why at least their allies won't actually choose to war with China. Propaganda will never beat material reality in a head to head battle with each other.

Now do I believe that there won't be any war whatsoever? Maybe not that peacefully.

America may or could go to war with China if nothing else because of just how hateful and bigoted they are, and we present the perfect enemy for their paranoid minds since well...they can't fight the Arabs and the Muslims again.

I do believe, for the record, that both Japan and South Korea will war with China IF the Americans war with us.

Japan because they are no different from the monsters that did Nanjing, and South Korea because quite frankly North Korea will see this as the perfect chance to strike at the South. Honestly, it prolly kind of is.

And with that being said I have to say that too many people here are missing other parts of the story.

If armed reunification is what happens then the truth is that this will be a war for the entirety of the 1IC up to and including Japan.

Look I know this sounds bad, and I will concede that what I'm about to say may be an uncomfortable truth for many to accept. It is still the truth nonetheless.

China would be very happy to get revenge back on Japan. Plain and simple.

Is it morally the coolest thing ever. Lol it's revenge ok? Not the most complicated feeling in the world.

But if you don't believe that the very first time a Japanese military member so much as wounds one of us that all of China will not respond with anger the likes of which only being pent up for nearly a 100 years can explode forth with. Then you are 100% mistaken here..more than 100% even.

Whether you agree or disagree with the sentiment is beside the point, and quite frankly I would go so far as to say that maybe there really is some cosmic entity or force who has at least some kind of sense of justice even if it may appear wholly unfathomable to us...or maybe that's just crazy talk?

And if you still don't believe me then realize this. That America can only war with China if they do so through deployment points of either Okinawa, Japan, South Korea, or Guam. All of those besides Guam requires that you basically might as well enter within the limits of the 1IC. And of course China won't just stand by as they enter within combat distance. So ya even if there wasn't that whole bad blood thing between china and Japan well there's no choice because they would be passing their forces through an area that makes it very easy to attack them.

This war will be much longer than a few days as people have pointed out, but it will be longer because China will be fighting the Korean War 2.0 and the REAL operation downfall (America's name for the plan to invade Japanese homeland), and not because dueling in the Taiwan strait happens or because of brutal CQC on Taiwan Island itself.

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TBH re: Japan, I think this is what most people are thinking

tygyg1111 said:

TBH re: Japan, I think this is what most people are thinking

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Due to the nature of Japan's geography, modern economy, and demographics, they are ripe for regime change after their master exhausts their forces and materials engaging in an unwinnable campaign.

Japan could be blockaded pretty easily but doing an actual invasion would be PHENOMENALLAY difficult.