PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf said:

Well, as I said, I don’t think China has set itself any deadlines for AR.

However, it’s still worth noting a number of pertinent factors you do not seem to be considering, or which you seem to be viewing from an American prospective and model, rather than Chinese.

In terms of general national preparedness and manufacturing consent, one could easily argue that America is doing all the heavy lifting for Beijing.

If we ignored all of America’s precipitating actions and just list out all of China’s responses since the Trump years and compare that to a checklist of the core preparations China would need to undertake before launching AR and I think you will find a shocking amount of overlap, and that is very much not by chance. China has been very careful and deliberate in which provocations to respond to, and how it does so.

The second important factor you are not appearing to consider is that even in the event of China launching AR proactively, it is extremely probable that Beijing will still frame it as a reactionary move. Again, America has already given China more than enough material to play the straw-that-broke-the-canal’s-back route to escalate any tiny move into full blown AR.

This is important from both an international, but more critically, internal political POV.

Irrespective of the military outcome, the political and economy results from AR would be a watershed movement for China, and the lives of almost everyone living in China, and people of Chinese or even Asian descent and appearance worldwide will change significantly if not fundamentally as a result.

As such, I think Beijing would be keen to demonstrate to its own people and the world (especially the global south) that this was not a choice made lightly or even that this was a choice Beijing proactively made at all. Rather, I think Beijing will do everything in its power to frame this as something forced upon it by external forces, and that it was forced to act against its own wishes because it no longer has any room left to give to avoid the conflict. This is almost a polar opposite of how America and the west would typically try to manufacture consent, but it is the most logical play for Beijing, because for China, Taiwan isn’t a far away war of choice, it’s a war of existential importance for China right on its doorstep. One does not want to show oneself as overeager to trigger such a war.

If we look back at history, this has basically been the standard template for China to justify going to war all the way back to the Korean War. It would frankly be incredible for China to break with this pattern for Taiwan.

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The term "manufacturing consent" in this reply stuck out to me as onto something and I considered it overnight.

I'll add more context to the screenshots from the video. The videos titled "逐梦" or "Chasing the Dream", release as part of this years August 1st anniversary are eight 20 minute long episodes showing lives of different PLA members in 5 minute blocks. So far 4 episodes have aired in China and you can see the first 3 on youtube here on CCTV's official youtube account:

The particular block is in the 2nd 5 minute block of episode 1, here's a direct link:
This is the story of a ZBD-05 crew. Yankee and crew have gone out and said this is someone from 73rd Group Army facing Taiwan.

This video is having such an impact that in the second Chahuahui podcast this week the crew devoted 1/3 of the running time talking about it, even dedicating the title of the podcast to this video:

In context of both this video and last year's big exercise after Pelosi's visit the team said the critical thing to note is government now refers to ROC as "the enemy" rather than "compatriots" as in the past. This is not a change to be taken lightly and point at determinations regarding future events.

This week being one year anniversary of Pelosi's visit it's useful to look back at "manufacturing consent" around this incident. You may recall in running up to the visit MFA and Chinese media (in particular Hu Xijin) all threw out big statements like "拭目以待" that fired up the public into thinking something will be done if the visit went ahead. When the visit occurred without an immediately response from PLA the nation was in deep shock and I recall people were saying this is another repeat of the Three Great Hate of 90s. Ayi went ballistic for an entire week and made proclamations like the now well known "是，形式和人心都出了问题" meme that got his own weibo account permanently banned and event sent the whole Guancha military affairs team into hiding for several days. Just earlier this week Yankee was telling a story of a PLA friend he knew complaining to him that that night he got a call from his wife and the two of them started arguing on the phone when the wife demanded to know why the PLA wasn't doing anything.

We don't know weather or not the public pressure contributed to the scale of the big exercise that took place a few days after. But in retrospect people blame the huge public reaction to the consensus building before the visit, singling out Hu Xijin in particular.

Which brings me back to the video. Does the video constitute "manufacturing consent" around AR in general and 2027 in particular? I feel so and last night I pitched the question to the Chinese military fan telegram group (the same one that hosts all the free copies of Guancha livestreams) I hang out in to get a feel. Some people feel it's a nothingburger, but some people do feel the same as me. To the point that this morning even as the group's conversation drifted to the two US Navy sailors caught for spying for China a regular saw fit to drag the topic back to 2027 and said this:


In response to someone else saying nothing will happen in 2027 he said
"Did you not see the proclamation in Chasing the Dream? I'll put my words on record here, if after 1st of August 2027 nothing at all happens with PLA then situation and morale will really have problem. The party and PLA's legitimacy will be questioned".
Note he again referred to Ayi's meme from Pelosi's trip.

So I think highlighting this video as possible hint at AR is not being unreasonable. It's not just me who understood the video as such and if indeed nothing happens in 2027 this sort of "manufacturing consent" if not intended would be a huge mistake on part of publicity departments.

Temstar said:

The term "manufacturing consent" in this reply stuck out to me as onto something and I considered it overnight.

In context of both this video and last year's big exercise after Pelosi's visit the team said the critical thing to note is government now refers to ROC as "the enemy" rather than "compatriots" as in the past. This is not a change to be taken lightly and point at determinations regarding future events.

So I think highlighting this video as possible hint at AR is not being unreasonable. It's not just me who understood the video as such and if indeed nothing happens in 2027 this sort of "manufacturing consent" if not intended would be a huge mistake on part of publicity departments.

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This is unfortunate. And wasteful for the Chinese nation. Can "manufacturing consent" turn this around?

RobertC said:

This is unfortunate. And wasteful for the Chinese nation. Can "manufacturing consent" turn this around?

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In this case "manufacturing consent" is the very thing that's turning the characterisation of ROC from compatriot to enemy.

my humble opinions.
China could try to prepare and get 100% ready for AR at a time of its choosing. But the realities on the ground are that:
1, America and its vassals are not going to sit idle and allow the above to happen. America will attack when it is still having the
advantage and upper hand, to maintain its top dog position.
2, TW youth are being taught to alienate themselves from Chinese culture and heritage. As years go by, the percentage of TW population who still considers themselves Chinese will shrink as the seniors pass and younger ones grow up. To the latter who do not consider themselves Chinese, the concept or narrative of the existing estrangement of the Mainland and TW being a continuation of the civil war in China is incomprehensible and meaningless. This a grave threat, as the PLA soldiers who land on TW will be considered a foreign invasion force to be fought to the death, rather than being viewed as blood brothers who somehow are coming with good intentions despite some bloodshed. Of course, the morale and training of the TW army is another story.
3, America will continue to stoke up tensions across the Strait, as Uncle Sam has many tools inside his toolbox. The latest provocations include Lai Ching-te's planned transit through New York and San Francisco and whom he will meet there, and the rumour that Congress and Senate are going to pass a bill recognizing TW to gain admission into the UN as an independent country!! If Biden signs that bill, it would mean the end of peace, at least diplomatic relationship between China and America.
evidence at hand points to an early AR before 2027, rather than a timeline of 2035.

Temstar said:

In this case "manufacturing consent" is the very thing that's turning the characterisation of ROC from compatriot to enemy.

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Yes that was apparent. My too-short question was can the direction of "manufacturing consent" be turned around to change the enemy characterization back to compatriot?

RobertC said:

Yes that was apparent. My too-short question was can the direction of "manufacturing consent" be turned around to change the enemy characterization back to compatriot?

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Sure it can be done, trivially easy to do so in fact under the principle of United Front. If there's a need CPC can always tune the media to send the message that "only diehard separatists are the enemy, the majority of the people in ROC are still compatriots", which was pretty much the message previously.

To give another example, it wasn't until I was an adult that I really understood what "国民党反动派" means. On the surface level it looks as if this phase is saying "the counterrevolutionary KMT" to characterise the KMT as a whole but this is in fact not the case. What this phrase really means is "the counterrevolutionaries in KMT" with the unsaid subtext being "if you're in KMT but you don't count yourself as a counterrevolutionary then you're not the enemy" and indeed a branch of KMT called Revolutionary Committee of KMT still exists in mainland as the largest non-CPC political party.

Shilao by the way is a member of Revolutionary Committee, that's why when issues of KMT comes up he will talk about it by prefacing "As a member of RCCK my opinion on this is..." and also why people joke that he's the chief because he has high United Front value. And this demonstrates what DPP will have to do to get the RCCK treatment: they have to show values to United Front by abandoning separatism.

The use of military force to accomplish China's goals is quite exciting to contemplate and observe but I believe the Chinese military (specifically the integrated PLAN-CCG-MM) and political leadership will accomplish those goals without accompanying loss of life and property. There may be military conflict between the US and China but I believe it will be kept on the outer edge of the first island chain safely away from Taiwan.

you are too kind to America. It is not a benevolent country, but one that has no qualms to lie, cheat, steal, and kill in order to stay on top by stepping on the bodies of those it slains, as long as the actual fighting and devastation do not take place on American soil. that's the concept behind the whole forward deployment strategy.
just as America has instigated the Russo-Ukraine war to sow hatred between the 2 peoples, it will replicate and double down on its efforts in a bloody Sino-TW civil war, part 2.
America wants fighting and horrific devastation to take place on Taiwanese soil, the more blood bath the better, to keep the TW populace as alienated from Beijing as possible, so as to make post-unification governance as difficult as possible. Perpetual anger and hatred will give room to continual American intervention, overt and covert. That's why America is selling anti-personnel mines, anti-tank missiles, and Stingers to TW, all close-quarter tactical weapons designed to be used against PLA troops that have landed on TW soil.

RobertC said:

The use of military force to accomplish China's goals is quite exciting to contemplate and observe but I believe the Chinese military (specifically the integrated PLAN-CCG-MM) and political leadership will accomplish those goals without accompanying loss of life and property. There may be military conflict between the US and China but I believe it will be kept on the outer edge of the first island chain safely away from Taiwan.

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Serb said:

I think the US is planning to initiate the war, not China and it can be proven. I think the US will start x10 their provocations after US and Taiwan elections.

The US would want the war by 2025, however, China will respond to provocations only in 2027. China would want reunification in 2035, or 2050, but why does it matter when they will be forced?

As for the evidence, just take statements from the US leaders in general always speaking about 2025 or 2027, preparing their population.

Also keep in mind the exponential trend of their provocations, if this trend continues, in 2025 more serious stuff than Pelosi visiting is coming.

At this point those who deny that the US wants and is actively preparing for a war with China are delusional. They are literally saying it to your face all day.

They are not stupid, if you all here understand where China will be in 2035 and 2050, and where will they be, it is normal to strike earlier when their chances are better.

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Really depends on the US and Taiwan elections. Trump doesn't want to start a war. The Democratic party in their ideological zealotry does. Will Biden even survive until 2027? If the US government doesn't change, then yes, the risk of conflict is high. But we can't really predict the election outcome at this point

Jono said:

you are too kind to America. It is not a benevolent country, but one that has no qualms to lie, cheat, steal, and kill in order to stay on top by stepping on the bodies of those it slains, [...]

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I keep tryin’ to tell everyone, here, y’alll don’t really understand the depth of savagery that is AmeriKKKa! This nation is capable of absolutely soulless inhumanity, depravity, and destruction! The, unfortunate, reality is that China must be prepared to lose person for person against AmeriKKKa until AmeriKKKa, or the threat thereof, exists, no more! Yes, it sounds drastically unimaginable, but, “trust me bro‘“, this is what it’s going to take to rid China, and the world, of this parasitic predator! Unless and until AmeriKKKa understands that this will be the outcome, AmeriKKKa will persist in its attempts to violate China, and to devour the world!