airsuperiority
Captain
I understand all you have said...and can only say this in response.
If, as so many indicate, that Taiwan is essential to the PRC and an object of such absolute poignancy and focus...then why has Taiwan been essentially free for 60 years? All of the things you have talked about have existed throughout that period.
Is it soley because of US power? In terms of pure numbers and capability, the ratios have not changed that much.
There have been numerous ocassions when the US was diverted with other compelling issues (Vietnam, the height of the Cold War, Desert Storm, and(a few years ago) when Iraq and Aghanistan were going at the same time in major fashions, when the PRC could have done exactly the same thing, with exactly the same rational as you speak of now.
And yet they did not.
My guess is that there are other considerations, beyond the nationalistic fervor that you speak of, which are driving the issue behind the scenes as well. The PRC would definitely not divert ALL of its air or naval strength purely for Taiwan. That would be to invite other squabbles to be taken abject advantage of as well on other borders and with other islands and regional concerns.
Perhaps the PRC is reaching a point where they feel that the composition and make-up of forces make it more possible. But I believe the US is still holding the technological and capability edge that it has held throughout...and is verging on technologies that will even extend it.
My guess is also that there would be a point in any war of attrition, where enough losses would compel the PRC to cease and desist if they had not gained the upperhand. They would not use up and lose all of the more modern systems they had accumulated if it looked like that might be the case.
Would that happen? I honestly do not know...but it could, and that would be one of the worst case scenarios they would have to plan for.
As I said earlier...I hope and pray it never need come to that, and will leave this discussion on that note.
It matters because the people of Taiwan particularly, and the U.S. are going to be more open to reunification as the differences in these particular areas are lessened.
You may think that is trivial...but it is not.
I cannot make a solid prediction that it will make the difference. But it certainly could and I am simply expressing my hope that it does.
No one has stated that China need give up its desire, or its claim to Taiwan. However, the people of Taiwan have been (from their own perspective) free and independent for over 60 years. A lot of that time, they were recognized by the international community as such. Now they are not. But you have generations now of those people living that way and of themselves you can understand how they might not want to so easily give that up.
That is why I say through economic and through these other means a point could be reached where giving it up (what they deem to be there own soveriegnty) would be worthwhile because of reaching a point where the differences are so small that they are fine with it.
That's all. I for one, hope it goes that way as opposed to armed conflict That was the whole point of my comments and I stand by them.
...and with that, I believe we have expressed our viewpoints directly and I do not need to punctuate them any further on this count...so I will leave them at that.
Sorry but I have a lot of disagreement on this one. One who follows the history timeline will know the answers to the questions you proposed. After Chiang fled, the PLA doesn't possess any sorts of cross-straits capabilities. The rest of the decades were pretty much China having identity crisis, reforms, and modernizations. None of these show that China didn't care about Taiwan. Plus, up until Lee, both sides had always recognized one China, and never anything involving an independent Taiwan. It was Lee's actions which began to bring a new light to evolution of mentality on the island. Also, we had never given a shit about what the West thinks. Just because ROC is democratic in the latter decades doesn't mean they are "independent people who are separate". Will we say SK and NK are independent from each other because of different identity? Or the Germans?
To Chinese and the Koreans, this is not a matter of political identity; this is an ethic issue, same as why the Palestinians will be unyielding about their cause. No one else in the world will have the right to tell them what to do, not to mention the right to attempt to judge their cause as legit or not.
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