All of China's other potential threats are land based, and the PLA is strong enough to hold their own long enough for air power to be diverted if another threat presents itself.
If Beijing commits to using force to re-take Taiwan, then all other consideration would come a distinct second.
No my friend, it would be a colossal mistake for the US to think that China would view Taiwan as a war of choice as the US does. For China, Taiwan is a matter of principle, of the very survival of the CCP itself, as if there is one thing that is almost guaranteed to cause the people and military of China to turn against the CCP, is if they 'lost' Taiwan.
Once committed, the Chinese will not back down until they have taken Taiwan no matter the cost. The sooner the US realises this simple fact, the fewer lives might be lost.
Well we will just have to disagree on that one.
I do not think the US forces in the western pacific are strong enough to carry out the blocking role you envisaged. It is probably strong enough to block the PLAN from pushing past the second or third island chains, but then the PLAN has never had much interest in going that far .
I understand all you have said...and can only say this in response.
If, as so many indicate, that Taiwan is essential to the PRC and an object of such absolute poignancy and focus...then why has Taiwan been essentially free for 60 years? All of the things you have talked about have existed throughout that period.
Is it soley because of US power? In terms of pure numbers and capability, the ratios have not changed that much.
There have been numerous ocassions when the US was diverted with other compelling issues (Vietnam, the height of the Cold War, Desert Storm, and(a few years ago) when Iraq and Aghanistan were going at the same time in major fashions, when the PRC could have done exactly the same thing, with exactly the same rational as you speak of now.
And yet they did not.
My guess is that there are other considerations, beyond the nationalistic fervor that you speak of, which are driving the issue behind the scenes as well. The PRC would definitely not divert ALL of its air or naval strength purely for Taiwan. That would be to invite other squabbles to be taken abject advantage of as well on other borders and with other islands and regional concerns.
Perhaps the PRC is reaching a point where they feel that the composition and make-up of forces make it more possible. But I believe the US is still holding the technological and capability edge that it has held throughout...and is verging on technologies that will even extend it.
My guess is also that there would be a point in any war of attrition, where enough losses would compel the PRC to cease and desist if they had not gained the upperhand. They would not use up and lose all of the more modern systems they had accumulated if it looked like that might be the case.
Would that happen? I honestly do not know...but it could, and that would be one of the worst case scenarios they would have to plan for.
As I said earlier...I hope and pray it never need come to that, and will leave this discussion on that note.
i.e. said:
How the Hell does free-market and Individual freedom matters when other people are squabbling over with you on EEZs or worse leveraged overwhelming united states military might to prolong what nearly everyone in the world considers a civil war and a internal matter.
It matters because the people of Taiwan particularly, and the U.S. are going to be more open to reunification as the differences in these particular areas are lessened.
You may think that is trivial...but it is not.
I cannot make a solid prediction that it will make
the difference. But it certainly could and I am simply expressing my hope that it does.
No one has stated that China need give up its desire, or its claim to Taiwan. However, the people of Taiwan have been (from their own perspective) free and independent for over 60 years. A lot of that time, they were recognized by the international community as such. Now they are not. But you have generations now of those people living that way and of themselves you can understand how they might not want to so easily give that up.
That is why I say through economic and through these other means a point could be reached where giving it up (what they deem to be there own soveriegnty) would be worthwhile because of reaching a point where the differences are so small that they are fine with it.
That's all. I for one, hope it goes that way as opposed to armed conflict That was the whole point of my comments and I stand by them.
...and with that, I believe we have expressed our viewpoints directly and I do not need to punctuate them any further on this count...so I will leave them at that.
