PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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Asking them to surrender or imposing sanctions just gives them time to prepare.
That's a good idea, but I'm personally opposed to anything that weakens the suddenness of action.The DPP leadership is very smart. They have gone to foreign countries for "visits" more than once when the situation is tense.
I don't think the reservists they mobilized have any combat effectiveness,but it is not good to give them enough time for general mobilization.
Once you have made up your mind, you should never do any superfluous political performance.
But to be honest, I'm not happy about it.Although sometimes the confidentiality system only works for "our own people", Taiwanese people have gained many advantages by virtue of unilateral opening up：You have to understand that due to the language barrier, the intelligence agencies of Japan and the United States cannot fully understand all aspects of China like the Taiwanese.
Taiwan's ability to create unrest in Chinese Mainland is also much more sophisticated and covert than that of the United States.Most importantly, Taiwan has an intelligence sharing mechanism with the United States and Japan. They cooperate to closely monitor the dispatch routes of nuclear submarines in Chinese Mainland.
From the perspective of national security, people will not be able to sleep at night if Taiwan is not resolved.Although the United States has powerful satellites and reconnaissance aircraft, sometimes its intelligence gathering effect on China is not necessarily better than that of the Taiwanese.
If the rebel leadership just deserts at the first sight of danger then China will oust them much more easily.
Besides, after imposing a policy to end the ROC's ability to get continued funding, Beijing would probably declare a no fly zone and no sail zone soon after, so there's no way to run anywhere.
I strongly doubt the KMT has enough administrative efficiency to mobilize any more fighters than what they already have, in fact, most efforts from their side would be focused on making the existing fighters not run away. Forcing guns into the hands of random civilians will not work, on the contrary, by diluting the soldiers with unwilling fighters, you lower overall morale.
Through the PLA has the ability to massacre the area like American military did to North Korea or Vietnam, Beijing wouldn't be able to muster the political will to do so unless Taiwan has been invaded by a foreign power already. So any victory must be won using a morale break as the main tool.
Although in general, their speculative mentality is very heavy.However, we should not expect too much for the self collapse of Taiwan's Armed Forces.From a military point of view, this is reckless.
The younger generation has received more "taiwanism" education,although it does not have a large fascist social group like Ukraine,their mentality towards Chinese Mainland is still extremely hostile and hateful, constantly cursing the destruction of the enemy.
Of course, this extreme emotion relies heavily on external "appreciation".They chattered about their important position in the world.At the war beginning, even a little meaningless verbal support will make them extremely stubborn.They firmly believe that the United States and Japan will launch an ideological crusade war for them. Their superstition and dependence on the west is more crazy than Ukraine.
Remember the book I shared?I saw a book review as follows:Veterans in the KMT era have exaggerated the horror of PLA. Now we should have a "correct" understanding (that PLA is not a terrible opponent), and we will defend our homeland without hesitation.We will not be intimidated by the PLA's war threats.
Publicity can largely offset your strength.But sadly, Taiwan's media are still hyping up how the Ukrainians move from victory to another victory,DPP attaches great importance to publicity tools.
Of course, it is doubtful how many "warriors" will be left after realizing that the war is not as they imaginedEven the self-confidence brought by ignorance and arrogance can make them persist for a few——minutes.At least they won't surrender immediately under the threat of war.But without electricity, that determination will be at least half gone.
Protect Taiwan's leaders to escape in the first time is already an annual exercise program.This is undoubtedly the most incredible scene:Taiwan's media proudly publicized the escape, claiming that it reflected their political openness and transparency.
Is there really a need to take back Taiwan by force? So long as Taiwan does not declare independence, the status quo can and should be maintained. A forceful unification does not do China much good. I do not doubt that the PLA can 'win' such a conflict, and most likely can deter foreign intervention. But it will suffer unnecessary losses, and inflict heavy damage on Taiwan's infrastructure, much of which is useful for Chinese national aims (shipbuilding and semiconductor). Military action will expose the mainland to risk of sanctions by the West. I do not doubt that these sanctions will also severely hurt the West, but it also hurts China, and there are ideological politicians in the West that rather their own country suffer in order to inflict pain on China.
Taiwan's youths are indeed more brainwashed and feel more Taiwanese rather than Chinese, but it is unwise to discount the very significant amount of people that still consider themselves Chinese first and foremost. Democratic politics are, as you all know, partisan, and it is easy to be drawn in to DPP's anti-China policy platform, even if you are actually far more concerned about the other issues that they claim to have the solution for (intergenerational wealth gap, high property prices, youth unemployment, gay rights, so on and so forth). In the current manifestation of the democratic system, you can't do micro-voting, so people that care about these other issues have to vote for the entirety of the DPP's package. I would caution against interpreting support for the DPP as necessarily all driven by anti-mainland sentiment.
I feel these books and publications that the other commenters have brought up exagerrates the extent the people in Taiwan actually care about 'resisting' China, or the CPC, let alone do anything stupid. Most people are realistic. They know that conflict with the mainland will be a tragedy on an enormous scale, and there is no real point of fighting for a cause is not just nor have a chance of winning. If the DPP wants to declare independence, there would be very few people that would be willing to follow in their stead. To illustrate what I'm talking about, a retired RoC general, Gao An-Kuo 高安國, called upon troops to surrender if push comes to shove. This sentiment is by no means uncommon, but there is a lot of personal ramification for openly expressing it. He is calling for surrender not out of cowardice, but because it is the right thing to do. There is clearly a lot of support for the mainland, and it is important not to damage the perception among the people through unnecessary military action - which would create problems later down the track when it comes to governance and stability.
Re-taking Taiwan should be viewed as a long-term goal. It should be peaceful if at all possible, and that is the official stance of China. I believe it is still very possible given the long-term diverging trend in economic and military power between China and DPP's foreign backers. The threat of force should be exercised as a last resort. I also think a lot of Chinese are becoming quite impatient - they want to see with their own eyes the completion of the unification. I think this is entirely counterproductive, and there is no need to speed up the process forcefully with in order to satisfy emotional needs. Whether or not unification is achieved in one's own lifetime is completely irrelevant to the national interest, which should be the only important consideration on the timing and method.
Taiwan's youths are indeed more brainwashed and feel more Taiwanese rather than Chinese, but it is unwise to discount the very significant amount of people that still consider themselves Chinese first and foremost. Democratic politics are, as you all know, partisan, and it is easy to be drawn in to DPP's anti-China policy platform, even if you are actually far more concerned about the other issues that they claim to have the solution for (intergenerational wealth gap, high property prices, youth unemployment, gay rights, so on and so forth). In the current manifestation of the democratic system, you can't do micro-voting, so people that care about these other issues have to vote for the entirety of the DPP's package. I would caution against interpreting support for the DPP as necessarily all driven by anti-mainland sentiment.
I feel these books and publications that the other commenters have brought up exagerrates the extent the people in Taiwan actually care about 'resisting' China, or the CPC, let alone do anything stupid. Most people are realistic. They know that conflict with the mainland will be a tragedy on an enormous scale, and there is no real point of fighting for a cause is not just nor have a chance of winning. If the DPP wants to declare independence, there would be very few people that would be willing to follow in their stead. To illustrate what I'm talking about, a retired RoC general, Gao An-Kuo 高安國, called upon troops to surrender if push comes to shove. This sentiment is by no means uncommon, but there is a lot of personal ramification for openly expressing it. He is calling for surrender not out of cowardice, but because it is the right thing to do. There is clearly a lot of support for the mainland, and it is important not to damage the perception among the people through unnecessary military action - which would create problems later down the track when it comes to governance and stability.
Re-taking Taiwan should be viewed as a long-term goal. It should be peaceful if at all possible, and that is the official stance of China. I believe it is still very possible given the long-term diverging trend in economic and military power between China and DPP's foreign backers. The threat of force should be exercised as a last resort. I also think a lot of Chinese are becoming quite impatient - they want to see with their own eyes the completion of the unification. I think this is entirely counterproductive, and there is no need to speed up the process forcefully with in order to satisfy emotional needs. Whether or not unification is achieved in one's own lifetime is completely irrelevant to the national interest, which should be the only important consideration on the timing and method.
I'm of the opinion it is gonna happen this decade, and most likely by force.
As for why, because like you self pointed out, the younger people is getting more and more anti-mainland (partly also because of education) and the current leadership also looks like it wants to 'finish' the Taiwan problem this decade as well.
Besides all of this, Taiwan really has become something of a 'US-China battleground', and China taking Taiwan would be the one blow that ends US hegemony and the world would truly then be a multipolar world.
Moreover economically China is also poised to rise past US (in nominal gdp).
Other than discussions on military strategies in a Taiwan scenario, how about strategies involving the use of sleeper agents, saboteurs and subversive elements within Taiwan to help with neutralization or destruction of military and civilian infrastructures, and HUMINT to spot hidden military assets. There's a lot of mainlanders that have connections or live and work in Taiwan, so it would be easy to slip in or recruit a lot of these agents to activate during the Taiwan scenario. How effective they would be in a military reunification scenario?
There are basically 2 separate scenarios and these should be discussed separately because while both will lead to war over and around Taiwan and Fujian, they're very different scenarios.
The 1st is extremist forces in Taiwan deciding to restart the civil war by themselves, that's the situation where tactics aimed at causing a morale break would be most effective, using both targeted strikes and economic/blockade coercion over a longer period of time (months). Beijing would also take control over nearby islands and use them as staging ground for decapitation/anti special weapon strikes.
The 2nd and far more dangerous is a revanchist leader taking power in USA and/or Japan, with said leader launching an invasion into Taiwan using separatism as an excuse for land grab. This scenario would see the enemy try and land on Taiwan east coast with as many troops as possible, so they can occupy the area before the PLA can fortify up.
If that happens, there will be a race for the main Taiwan island, China would have to remove the separatists if necessary as fast as possible through intense bombing campaign as well as air dropping, in order to use Taiwan as well as the nearby islets to defend the east coast. US military and IJA soldiers cannot land on Taiwan that easily, due to the waters being defended by missiles and ships. However, to hold long term against an invasion on Taiwan, China must fortify the island itself and not just the surroundings with SAM, ASM etc.
The failures of Donbass and the failures of Crimea shows China that in order to stop a land grab, it is imperative to prevent US/IJA "little green men" from making it into Taiwan to begin with, in other words, China must first defend the coast using the mainland defenses and the navy, and then as rapidly as possible expand the defensive line to East Taiwan.
Quite frankly I don't believe Japan alone is capable of such a drastic move, but an ultranationalist American ruler might just be, China should remain vigilant because countries that are willing to sacrifice millions of lives whether their own or foreign citizens in order to achieve survival and greater power cannot be considered fully rational actors. Like the former soviet union when they invaded Hungary, America is a military threat to peace in the Asia Pacific.
The 1st is extremist forces in Taiwan deciding to restart the civil war by themselves, that's the situation where tactics aimed at causing a morale break would be most effective, using both targeted strikes and economic/blockade coercion over a longer period of time (months). Beijing would also take control over nearby islands and use them as staging ground for decapitation/anti special weapon strikes.
The 2nd and far more dangerous is a revanchist leader taking power in USA and/or Japan, with said leader launching an invasion into Taiwan using separatism as an excuse for land grab. This scenario would see the enemy try and land on Taiwan east coast with as many troops as possible, so they can occupy the area before the PLA can fortify up.
If that happens, there will be a race for the main Taiwan island, China would have to remove the separatists if necessary as fast as possible through intense bombing campaign as well as air dropping, in order to use Taiwan as well as the nearby islets to defend the east coast. US military and IJA soldiers cannot land on Taiwan that easily, due to the waters being defended by missiles and ships. However, to hold long term against an invasion on Taiwan, China must fortify the island itself and not just the surroundings with SAM, ASM etc.
The failures of Donbass and the failures of Crimea shows China that in order to stop a land grab, it is imperative to prevent US/IJA "little green men" from making it into Taiwan to begin with, in other words, China must first defend the coast using the mainland defenses and the navy, and then as rapidly as possible expand the defensive line to East Taiwan.
Quite frankly I don't believe Japan alone is capable of such a drastic move, but an ultranationalist American ruler might just be, China should remain vigilant because countries that are willing to sacrifice millions of lives whether their own or foreign citizens in order to achieve survival and greater power cannot be considered fully rational actors. Like the former soviet union when they invaded Hungary, America is a military threat to peace in the Asia Pacific.