PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Michaelsinodef said:

I'm of the opinion it is gonna happen this decade, and most likely by force.

As for why, because like you self pointed out, the younger people is getting more and more anti-mainland (partly also because of education) and the current leadership also looks like it wants to 'finish' the Taiwan problem this decade as well.

Besides all of this, Taiwan really has become something of a 'US-China battleground', and China taking Taiwan would be the one blow that ends US hegemony and the world would truly then be a multipolar world.

Moreover economically China is also poised to rise past US (in nominal gdp).

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I disagree.

I think China can live with the status quo.
If China lives up to its potential in the following decades, the Taiwan issue will be resolved without a war.

5unrise said:

Is there really a need to take back Taiwan by force? So long as Taiwan does not declare independence, the status quo can and should be maintained.

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It depends on the cost of "maintaining the status quo".However, with the increasingly open support of the United States and the involvement of European countries, this cost is bound to rise to an unacceptable level in the future.

5unrise said:

Taiwan's youths are indeed more brainwashed and feel more Taiwanese rather than Chinese, but it is unwise to discount the very significant amount of people that still consider themselves Chinese first and foremost.

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Unfortunately, the most extreme ideas in the world tend to have the most power to act. A small number of crazy people who dare to act are enough to force all silent people to follow their actions.
I have ever heard the most shameless speech.
These extreme remarks can't even show the whole content when I use translation tools to proofread,considering that it is not appropriate to preach hatred too much, I do not provide content translation.

Because of network regulation, most people in Chinese Mainland can't see these words.For political correctness, these contents are not allowed to be spread.Once these arrogant provocative words appear on any official media in Chinese Mainland, I believe there will only be voices calling for war.

On the contrary, Taiwan's media will take the initiative to publicize the extreme remarks of mainland netizens.But the injury is not unilateral,they should be grateful for CPC's moderation,the fascist words of the keyboardman are enough to make anyone lose all sympathy.

5unrise said:

In the current manifestation of the democratic system, you can't do micro-voting, so people that care about these other issues have to vote for the entirety of the DPP's package. I would caution against interpreting support for the DPP as necessarily all driven by anti-mainland sentiment.

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I don't believe this excuse of trying to get away with responsibility.The madman I listed is the main force that DPP relies on most: "awakened youth".
I do not believe in any Taiwanese youth who have been educated in "taiwanism".DPP may make a mess, but as long as they can get rid of the traces of "China" they hate, DPP will not lose support.

Biscuits said:

The 2nd and far more dangerous is a revanchist leader taking power in USA and/or Japan, with said leader launching an invasion into Taiwan using separatism as an excuse for land grab. This scenario would see the enemy try and land on Taiwan east coast with as many troops as possible, so they can occupy the area before the PLA can fortify up.

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Your second idea sounds interesting.I think these Taiwan opportunists will "take the initiative to invite" Americans, Japanese and even NATO troops under the temptation of the Americans.

They dare not declare "independence" alone, but once they have security guarantees, they will not hesitate to implement them（according to a survey）.As long as Americans give them some illusions, they will not hesitate to seize this opportunity.

Coalescence said:

Other than discussions on military strategies in a Taiwan scenario, how about strategies involving the use of sleeper agents, saboteurs and subversive elements within Taiwan to help with neutralization or destruction of military and civilian infrastructures, and HUMINT to spot hidden military assets. There's a lot of mainlanders that have connections or live and work in Taiwan, so it would be easy to slip in or recruit a lot of these agents to activate during the Taiwan scenario. How effective they would be in a military reunification scenario?

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This question is difficult to answer. No one will publicly publicize such secret activities. After the end of the cold war, it was difficult for the CPC to find supporters in Taiwan. At least, the seemingly attractive political rights, social welfare and visa exemption system made it difficult for people to choose to be "traitors".
In addition, the Taiwan authorities are very alert to the mainland people.DPP relentlessly monitors and censors those opposition parties who have close ties with the mainland.

I find the attachment in the above post to be just incredible. I question whether the remarks are authentic, because even if he believes everything he says, there is just nothing to be gained from angering both mainlanders and the vast majority of people on Taiwan, regardless of political persuasion.
Let me assure you, 99 percent of people I know will look at what he said and feel very offended. This is not mildly representative of anyone's point of view on Taiwan. Maybe you will find a tiny number of people you can count on one hand... but I will tell you it is completely misleading to use his words as representative of what any sane people on the island thinks. I know I am going off topic, but the legitimacy of these attachments, or at least the identity of the commenter therein, really has to be challenged.

I think it's best to get back on topic again to PLA strategy

AndrewS said:

I think it's best to get back on topic again to PLA strategy

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Well, looking at those crazy people will make me express my emotions uncontrollably.

At present, I am most concerned about the "Hankuang exercise" held in Taiwan.There were a lot of relevant materials and news about Han Kuang 37 last year.The 38th Han Kuang exercise had little discussion in the Forum.Unfortunately, I haven't found any more valuable information yet.However, considering the abolition of computer simulation this year, I believe that the value of discussion will be greatly reduced.

July will be the stage of live fire exercises. At that time, I think we can see a series of new Taiwan Army jokes.

zhangjim said:

This question is difficult to answer. No one will publicly publicize such secret activities. After the end of the cold war, it was difficult for the CPC to find supporters in Taiwan. At least, the seemingly attractive political rights, social welfare and visa exemption system made it difficult for people to choose to be "traitors".
In addition, the Taiwan authorities are very alert to the mainland people. DPP relentlessly monitors and censors those opposition parties who have close ties with the mainland.

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There's bound to be supporters in Taiwan which can be convinced to join the cause, people who have common interest or ideology with CPC, or who were wronged by the current administration in Taiwan like the opposition parties you mentioned. It would be difficult to catch these agents even with monitoring because they'll only act when the operation begins.

Unless the DPP actively seek out and imprisons everyone with even the slightest ties to the mainland before the armed reunification operation starts, they won't be able to effectively stop them from carrying their objectives. But after saying this, China should also look out for agents before the operation or create countermeasures against sabotage on their military infrastructures and assets.

Jesus H Christ, did we move on from comics and board games only to get into reddit-style shitposts?

FFS, could we stop posting these irrelevant crap and focus on real information?

@5unrise What is likely to happen is that it won't be anything ROC itself makes that will make the PRC act.
If the US vastly expands its military presence in the ROC then it is highly likely the PRC will move into military conflict.
Part of the deal made with Nixon was withdrawal of US troops from Taiwan. Yet recently the US moved troops back. As "advisors".
Then you will see same scenario as in Ukraine. Military drills of US troops on rotation in Taiwan. Officially US troops won't be stationed in Taiwan as in South Korea or Japan. But in practice those rotations and drills will be so frequent, might even have equipment prepositioned, that the PRC will find it intolerable. Another option would be the US stationing weapons systems which the PRC can't tolerate so close to their own territory. Like moving B61 bombs to bunkers in Taiwan.

Coalescence said:

There's bound to be supporters in Taiwan which can be convinced to join the cause, people who have common interest or ideology with CPC, or who were wronged by the current administration in Taiwan like the opposition parties you mentioned. It would be difficult to catch these agents even with monitoring because they'll only act when the operation begins.

Unless the DPP actively seek out and imprisons everyone with even the slightest ties to the mainland before the armed reunification operation starts, they won't be able to effectively stop them from carrying their objectives. But after saying this, China should also look out for agents before the operation or create countermeasures against sabotage on their military infrastructures and assets.

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How many agents do you need to create a beachhead? After an initial shock and awe campaign most ROC equipment will be damaged, so only a very small number of spies plus some special forces with artillery support from the PLAN might be enough to secure a beach until the main force can arrive from the mainland

Minm said:

How many agents do you need to create a beachhead? After an initial shock and awe campaign most ROC equipment will be damaged, so only a very small number of spies plus some special forces with artillery support from the PLAN might be enough to secure a beach until the main force can arrive from the mainland

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Airborne troops (likely from helicopters) would also come and aid the amphibious assault.

In general, it's pretty safe to say that China can take Taiwan by force today (2022), but there's merit/positives in actually waiting for China, and there's also various risks and uncertainties in taking Taiwan, which really aren't from taking Taiwan itself, but responses (mostly US) and other impacts it will have on world economy etc.