PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hi everyone. I'm a white American here who is curious about Chinese culture and military strategy. Recently, I read
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by scholar Harlan Ullman arguing that the PLA is unable to take Taiwan given its current capacity, nor will they be in the foreseeable future. I'll quote the relevant part of
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in full,




The three-to-one ratio apparently refers to a common ratio taught in military schools. The author explains,



I'm curious what people here have to say about this article. I asked a friend who knew more about PLA strategy and they said something like "simple ratios are totally obsolete in modern warfare." But I never went to a military academy, so I'm completely clueless here.
By that logic how did North Vietnam beat South Vietnam after US left?

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1.5 million ARVN in 1974 vs. 700k PAVN + 200k Viet Cong.

ARVN folded in 1 year.
 

Jason_

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi everyone. I'm a white American here who is curious about Chinese culture and military strategy. Recently, I read
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by scholar Harlan Ullman arguing that the PLA is unable to take Taiwan given its current capacity, nor will they be in the foreseeable future. I'll quote the relevant part of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in full,




The three-to-one ratio apparently refers to a common ratio taught in military schools. The author explains,



I'm curious what people here have to say about this article. I asked a friend who knew more about PLA strategy and they said something like "simple ratios are totally obsolete in modern warfare." But I never went to a military academy, so I'm completely clueless here.
It is complete bullshit.

Taiwan does not have anything close to 450,000 troops. The actual number from the Taiwan MOD, is around 180,000 total service personnel across all three branches. The army has about half of that, at slightly less than 100,000. Among those, only about 35,000 are organized into 7 armor or mechanized infantry brigades, which are the "proper" army. Another 30,000 are in 6 brigades of light infantry made up of mainly new recruits. These are the "cannon fodders" who are suppose to "delay" the PLA until the proper army arrives. The remainder are in non-combatant roles.

Mountains. Yes, Taiwan has big mountains. The problem is: no one lives there and the strategically important cities are all located on flat plains right next to the coast. It doesn't matter if there are guerrilla fighters left in the mountains. China can spend years systemically cleaning them out if necessary. Guerrilla never win wars on their own. And of course, the Taiwan military never trained for guerrilla warfare and has no operating procedures on operating as a guerrilla.

Land zones. This is the biggest myth out there. Taiwan has bad landing zone on the EAST COAST, facing the Pacific. The west coast facing China are mostly flat land. The northwestern half of Taiwan has nice beaches suitable for landing both people and vehicles. The southwestern half has fish ponds and rice paddies unsuitable for vehicles but are still fine for people.

Transport. Doctrinally, it's an open secret that the PLA plans on using civilian vessels to augments naval ships following the initial assault, after which the PLA should have an intact port or have engineers build a makeshift pier. Chinese merchant marine is immense and can be commandeered in wartime. The available PLAN amphibious force are meant for the initial landing, not for transporting the entire force.

And of course, the article completely ignored the PLAAF, PLAN and PLARF, not to mention the 1.5 million strong PAP.

Comparison with a nonexistent WWII invasion plan is nonsensical.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
By that logic how did North Vietnam beat South Vietnam after US left?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1.5 million ARVN in 1974 vs. 700k PAVN + 200k Viet Cong.

ARVN folded in 1 year.
But didn't you said on a different forum (PDF) that in your estimation, the PLA is the weakest of the Chinese military branch. Suggesting that the PLA lacks sufficient amount of self-propelled artillery, lacks helicopters etc..and that the Type 99 isn't a match against K-2, Type 90, of India, and South Korea
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
But didn't you said on a different forum (PDF) that in your estimation, the PLA is the weakest of the Chinese military branch. Suggesting that the PLA lacks sufficient amount of self-propelled artillery, lacks helicopters etc..and that the Type 99 isn't a match against K-2, Type 90, of India, and South Korea
Shh, you gotta give them a little bit... can't always tell them they're hopeless, they'll stop trying.

Yes I believe PLA tanks aren't as upgraded with the latest imported toys as K-2 and Type 90.

But PLA has better rocket artillery, drones, and most of all a better doctrine. Indians and South Koreans are spending billions on having just the tiniest better imported German engines/transmission, foreign optics, etc... And are both hugely neglecting long range and networking capabilities.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Shh, you gotta give them a little bit... can't always tell them they're hopeless, they'll stop trying.

Yes I believe PLA tanks aren't as upgraded with the latest imported toys as K-2 and Type 90.

But PLA has better rocket artillery, drones, and most of all a better doctrine. Indians and South Koreans are spending billions on having just the tiniest better imported German engines/transmission, foreign optics, etc... And are both hugely neglecting long range and networking capabilities.
I see. I had some doubts that it's you who's posting on that forum because your writings here carries an air of expertise, whereas your style on that other forum is a little more informal/casual.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I see. I had some doubts that it's you who's posting on that forum because your writings here carries an air of expertise, whereas your style on that other forum is a little more informal/casual.
PDF does not have the quality or freedom of speech here. We allow even far right neocon to post here as long as they follow the rules. But on PDF they banned me for responding to racism at one point and now banned me from citing several sources on Ukraine (literally banned entire sources from citations, attempt to link them replaces the website with ***)

OK. So now I correspondingly respond in language they do understand.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
PDF does not have the quality or freedom of speech here. We allow even far right neocon to post here as long as they follow the rules. But on PDF they banned me for responding to racism at one point and now banned me from citing several sources on Ukraine.

OK. So now I correspondingly respond in language they do understand.
I see. Well, you're simply adopting to the environment you're on. Flexibility, adaptability are some of the key hallmarks or traits we have to exercise when engaging on many different forums if we want to extract any kind of dialogue, as well as exchange of information about all kind of topics.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
PDF does not have the quality or freedom of speech here. We allow even far right neocon to post here as long as they follow the rules. But on PDF they banned me for responding to racism at one point and now banned me from citing several sources on Ukraine (literally banned entire sources from citations, attempt to link them replaces the website with ***)

OK. So now I correspondingly respond in language they do understand.
We allow even far right murican neocons to post here as long as they follow the rules. But on PDF they banned me for responding to racism at one point and now banned me from citing several sources on Ukraine.
Are they more Pro-Ukrainian over there? And why were you banned for defending yourself (Chinese) against racist attacks that usually comes out from the most Jai Hind folks on that forum. Which also surprised me since that site is supposed to be for Pakistanis, yet those folks are far more indulgent to their Indian users along with their vile rhetoric compared to some of the most frequent Chinese users there.
 

solarz

Brigadier
PDF does not have the quality or freedom of speech here. We allow even far right neocon to post here as long as they follow the rules. But on PDF they banned me for responding to racism at one point and now banned me from citing several sources on Ukraine (literally banned entire sources from citations, attempt to link them replaces the website with ***)

OK. So now I correspondingly respond in language they do understand.

A bit off topic, but it's something I've always wondered, what's the relation between SDF and PDF? Seems like a lot of posters came from PDF or something?
 
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