No. There is no way they can hide that many people from social media/satellites, not even in a military culture as secrecy obsessed as the PLA.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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No. There is no way they can hide that many people from social media/satellites, not even in a military culture as secrecy obsessed as the PLA.
Could a secret underground tunnel like what Iran made help hide those assets and cut the time it takes to mobilize? But anyways, another user here have pointed that China already has multiple amphibious forces stationed on the coast for Taiwan, but I don't know if its enough for the entire operation.
As the others said, Taiwan can not field 450,000 people to defend itself. Its proper combat force is around 35,000 with extra 30,000 in light brigades. Since conscription existed until now, it theoretically has a few million to mobilize but equipment and enough officers simply do not exist. I don't think they would be able to sustain a 450,000 men combat force considering it means at least 300,000 more to supply them.
Force ratios are a myth. There are a lot of instances of smaller forces defeating larger ones even while attacking way back into antiquity.
Taiwan is not an easy task indeed. It is a stronger country (even though it officially doesn't exist) than many Eastern European NATO members. But it is not something China couldn't handle especially if there is no US intervention.
In many aspects Taiwan's military is technologically superior to Ukraine but the morale of the troops is not the best. Soldier training under DPP has been very risk averse and conscription time has been cut down drastically due to popular sentiments. In an article I've read by a conservative American blogger with contacts in Taiwan some of the artillery units have not done live fire training during the duration of their service, like at all... This is pretty unthinkable for a military facing a threat as big as that of mainland China.
escobar
Brigadier
With Starlink, Internet will still be available unless PLA can jam thousand starlink sats
Target power plants, especially power transformers. Can't run Starlink without electricity.
Starlink needs those satellite dish on the ground to work, and I think you could scramble those signal using EW. Either way weapons are being developed to destroy and disable them easily, I think there's one being developed in the US, using a powerful microwave beam.
solarz
Brigadier
Hide in plain sight. You don't need to hide the troops, you just need to keep the enemy guessing on when/if the attack will come.
Off-topic, but what do you guys think of the possibilities that international laws may get enacted in the future to enforce cyber-sovereignty? Would countries claim that other countries cannot encroach on their airwaves, by threatening to fry or destroy satellites unlawfully transmitting signals in the territory and have receiver dishes built to constantly looking out for illegal transmission?
Starlink is user to satellite to ground station which handles the backhaul. They don't have satellite to satellite. You can jam the ground station link.
The frequency band is also known.