PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Insignius said:

After this Ukraine crisis, China should speed up their efforts to invade Taiwan.
Taiwan isnt going to slow down with their de-sinicization but go full Azov now. Similiarily, the US will probably violate the One-China Principle even more brazenly and soon put major troops and missiles on that island.

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What evidence do you have for any of this claim? More importantly, what evidence do you have that Taiwan would even accept such a move, since it would be the biggest breach to status quo ever and most assuredly would lead to an invasion.

Keep in mind that US and Taiwan could've done any of these things back 2 or 3 decades ago when PLA was a lot weaker and would not be able to adequately respond.

In terms of provocation, have you so quickly forgotten what happened in 94 or 98 or even the aggressive EW aircraft action around South China Sea in the late 90s/early 2000s that led to the EP3 crash? How can anything top that?

I would like to remind members to please exercise some discipline and effort for posting.

This thread title and the opening thread have a specific objective and discussion in mind.


General news about Taiwan-US-China relations, linked without any commentary or explanation for why it is relevant to the specific thread title, is low effort and not constructive and better left to other threads (there is a general Taiwan military news thread for example).

here is a commentary from someone I listen to a lot and has deep connections to Washington political establishment. Listen to the second half of China/Taiwan. Bottom line, I don't think there is going to be any changes to status quo at least in the current administration. Who knows what would happen with a future administration.

If China is really concerned about things changing when a new administration comes in, then they need to put the accelerators on defense budget and J-20 production. Aside from that, I think there is a long list of issues they need to take care of before they are ready to press Taiwan unilaterally.

I wonder if this has already been discussed in the forums:


Part one of the wargame scenario is now sadly 404.

CMANO兵棋推演：对台作战2019（二）​

想定设计：M1A2
战报作者：Alexander Cheung

欢迎访问兵棋推演爱好者的根据地 — 战争艺术论坛

Scenario: M1A2
Reporting: Alexander Cheung


写在前边：

正在我们抱怨导弹拦截率的问题之时，CMANO v1.13于前天发布，实测发现极大改善了导弹拦截模型的算法，加入了拦截角度，速度修正量也有提高，从而实现了对于弹道导弹的拦截率大幅下降，也更加合理化。因此我们终于可以放弃"用不切实际的东风导弹数量来堆积合理战果"的无奈之举了。所以，请理解，不是推演中真的需要发射这么多东风，而是受制于拦截率问题，必须实现合理战果。

CMANO是一款非常活跃的兵棋游戏，它的活跃表现在官方对于玩家社区的持续倾听、对于主引擎特性的频繁升级、对于数据库不间断的维护和更新、几乎每两个月就可以推出DLC“圈钱”的节奏、以及爱好者社区为之推出想定设计的速度和规模，就这一点而言，它早已超越了当时的Harpoon。

CMANO兵棋推演：对台作战2019（一）

Preamble:

While we were complaining about the missile interception rate, CMANO v1.13 was released the day before yesterday, which was tested and found to have greatly improved the missile interception model algorithm by adding the interception angle and increasing the amount of velocity correction, thus achieving a much lower and more rationalized interception rate for ballistic missiles. So we can finally give up the helplessness of "using unrealistic numbers of Dongfeng missiles to pile up reasonable results". So, please understand, it is not that we really need to launch so many Dongfeng in the rehearsal, but we have to achieve reasonable results due to the intercept rate issue.


CMANO is a very active chess game, and its activity is demonstrated by the official's continuous listening to the player community, the frequent upgrades to the main engine features, the uninterrupted maintenance and updates to the database, the rhythm of DLC "money" almost every two months, and the speed and scale of the enthusiast community's design for it. In terms of speed and scale, it has long surpassed Harpoon at that time.


CMANO Military Chess Rehearsal: Combat against Taiwan 2019 (I)

Translated with (free version)


第二阶段




北京时间14:37，辽宁舰舰载机编队在台湾东部太平洋海域执行战斗巡逻时遭遇电子压制，一架歼15被台方AIM-120C导弹击中，左引擎受损，但平安着舰。我方两架挂载有电子干扰吊舱的运-9立即展开电子对抗。

At 14:37 Beijing time, Liaoning CSG's carrier wing encountered electronic suppression while on combat patrol in the Pacific Ocean east of Taiwan. A J-15 was hit by a Taiwanese AIM-120C missile and its left engine was damaged, but it landed safely. Two of our Yun-9s mounted with electronic jamming pods immediately launched an electronic countermeasure.



歼-15双机编队向来犯的F-16A发射3枚PL-12空空导弹并予以击落。迫于台湾东部的防空压力，战斗巡逻任务并没有立即扩展到台湾东部沿海地区。

A J-15 element comprising of two planes fired 3 PL-12 AAM at the F-16A, achieving air kills. Due to AA pressure from eastern Taiwan, the patrol mission did not immediately extend to seas off the east of Taiwan.



位于汕头外海的基洛级潜艇和台湾海峡以南的元级潜艇开始向澎湖列岛以及南部台军海军舰队方向机动，执行ASW（反潜作战）和ASuW（反水面作战）任务，准备为登陆部队扫清障碍。

Kilo-class submarines located at seas off Shantou and Yuan-class submarines located at the southern section of the Taiwan Strait began manuovering towards the Penghu islets and the ROCN fleets near southern Taiwan, to conduct anti-submarine warefare and anti-surface warfare, to clear obstacles for the landing force.




与此同时，位于厦门外海的基洛级潜艇和台湾海峡以北的元级潜艇开始向台北外海方向机动，为北部登陆部队扫清障碍。

At the same time, Kilo-class subs off the coast of Xiamen and Yuan-class subs at the northern section of the TW Strait began manoeuvring towards the northern seas off TW, to clear obstacles for the northern landing section.



位于福州以北的鹰击导弹发射车和泉州海域外整编待命的新竹登陆部队及护航舰队编队向台北外海的台军海军舰队发射多枚鹰击-62、鹰击-18进行先发制人的饱和攻击，以压制雄风导弹打击。编队中的台军建阳级驱逐舰、济阳级护卫舰、康定级护卫舰、基德级驱逐舰发射多枚标准1和标准2升空拦截，但无力抵御饱和攻击，先后被击沉。4艘光华6号导弹艇闻讯改变航向，向东逃窜。

YJ missile launchers at Fuzhou, and the landing and escort fleets in the Quanzhou area fired many YJ-62, YJ-18 missiles at the ROCN off the coast of Taipei, in order to neutralise and suppress Hsiung Feng missile sites. ROCS Chieng Yang (ex USN Gearing Class ship James E. Keyes, now decommissioned - translator's note), ROCS Chih Yang (ex USN Knox class frigate Robert E. Peary, decomissioned 2015), ROCS Kang Ding, and Kidd class destroyer launced several Standard-1 and Standard-2 missiles to intercept, but were unable to counter the attack and were all sunk. Four Kuang Hua class missilbe boats changed course and escaped to the East.

15:04，两架歼-20从南昌向塘空军基地起飞，肩负着深入战区打击台军信息化节点的重任。与此同时，我军奉命执行战斗巡逻任务的多架战机已经抵达沿海地区，台湾海峡上空的制空战拉开帷幕。

At 15:04, two J-20s took off from Nanchang Xiangtang Air Base, with the important mission of striking the information nodes of the Taiwanese army deep into enemy territory. At the same time, a number of our warplanes ordered to carry out combat patrol missions have arrived in the coastal areas, and the curtain has been raised on the air superiority contest over the Taiwan Strait.



预警机报告，在台海南部上空，侦察多个台军空中目标向中线方向移动。执行战斗巡逻任务的歼-11迅速出击，击退来犯之敌。另有多架歼-10A接到命令，从广东起飞，支援制空战。

Early warning aircraft reported reconnaissance of multiple Taiwanese air targets moving toward the center line over the southern Taiwan Strait. J-11s on combat patrol mission quickly struck and repelled the incoming enemy. Several other J-10As received orders to take off from Guangdong to support the air control battle.



台海中部，一架台军P-3C海上巡逻机在台湾以西海岸飞行，两架台军反潜直升机在中线附近执行反潜任务。我军北部SAG（水面行动大队）发射防空导弹击落目标。

In the central Taiwan Sea, a Taiwanese P-3C maritime patrol aircraft flies off the coast west of Taiwan while two Taiwanese anti-submarine helicopters conduct anti-submarine missions near the center line. Our northern SAG (Surface Action Group) fires anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down the target.


16架轰-6K从邵东空军基地起飞，携带着64枚空地-63，打击目标为台南海域的台军海军舰队。

Sixteen H-6Ks took off from Shaodong Air Base carrying 64 KD-63s to strike the Taiwanese naval fleet in Tainan waters.


15:12，位于泉州外海待命的北部SAG（水面行动大队）接到报警，至少7枚雄风导弹来袭，发射平台疑为部署在澎湖的台军海军力量。在红旗防空导弹拦截和全舰队电子干扰之下，雄风未能命中目标。

At 15:12, the northern SAG (Surface Action Group), located off Quanzhou, was alerted to the arrival of at least seven HF missiles from a launch platform suspected to be a Taiwanese naval force deployed in Penghu. The HF failed to hit the target under HQ air defense missile interception and fleet-wide electronic jamming.

15:26，轰6-K抵达发射距离，64枚空地-63呼啸而出，飞向台海军目标。与此同时，南部SAG（水面行动大队）发射多枚鹰击-83进行支援。台海军1艘成功级护卫舰、1艘建阳级驱逐舰、1艘济阳级护卫舰、2艘康定级护卫舰、1艘基德级驱逐舰先后被击沉。

At 15:26, the H6-K wing reached firing distance and 64 KD-63s roared out and flew towards the Taiwan Navy target. At the same time, the Southern SAG (Surface Action Group) launched multiple YJ-83s in support. One Chenggong-class frigate, one Jianyang-class destroyer, one Jiyang-class frigate, two Kangding-class frigates and one Kidde class destroyer of the Taiwan Navy were sunk one after another.



15:51，歼-20编队抵达台湾上空，向台南部在空的E-2K预警机和EC-130H电子战飞机发动奇袭，PL-15准确命中。整个奇袭过程进行的非常顺利，没有防空导弹发射以及空中拦截。在同时打击掉多个射程内在空目标后，歼-20完成预订打击任务后开始返航。

At 15:51, the J-20 formation arrived over Taiwan and launched a surprise attack on the E-2K AWACS and EC-130H electronic warfare aircraft in the air in southern Taiwan, with PL-15s hitting accurately. The entire surprise attack proceeded very smoothly, with no anti-aircraft missile launches or air interceptions. After simultaneously striking multiple in-range air targets, the J-20 completed its scheduled strike mission and began to return home.



歼-10A四机编队在执行制空任务误入台防空火力圈，一架歼-10被来袭的天弓2击落。

A four-plane formation of J-10A mistakenly entered Taiwan's air defense fire circle during an air control mission, and one J-10 was shot down by an incoming Skybow 2.


第一波东风打击2小时过后，火箭军各东风发射车相继完成重新装填，立即发起第二轮打击。第二轮打击规模同第一轮，目的旨在消灭在第一轮打击中留存的目标，如部分机场跑道、滑行道、雷达、天弓发射阵地、地下指挥中心等。

Two hours after the first wave of DF missile strikes, each of the Rocket Force's DF launchers completed reloading one after another and immediately launched a second round of strikes. The second strike was on the same scale as the first, and was aimed at eliminating targets that remained from the first strike, such as some airfield runways, taxiways, radars, Skybow launch positions, underground command centers, etc.


台湾北部空域，台空军多架幻影-2000在上空巡逻。我执行战斗巡逻的歼-11B编队向多个幻影-2000目标发起打击，并至少击落3架敌机。

Multiple Mirage-2000s of the Taiwan Air Force patrol over the airspace in northern Taiwan. Our J-11B formation on combat patrol launched strikes at multiple Mirage-2000 targets and shot down at least three enemy aircraft

与此同时，另一个歼-20双机编队从南昌向塘空军基地升空，意图对台北部空域的预警机实施打击。此前的歼-20编队之所以没有同时执行两个空域预警机的打击任务，是考虑到我军对于爱国者部署尚没有掌握准确情报，执行任务的空域过于深入，南北穿行风险较大，而歼-20若首战被击落，将面临着极大的政治风险。

At the same time, another J-20 twin formation lifted off from Nanchang Xiangtang Air Base with the intention of carrying out strikes against early warning aircraft in the northern airspace of Taiwan. The reason why the previous J-20 formation did not carry out strikes against early warning aircraft in both airspace at the same time was that our military did not yet have accurate intelligence on the Patriot missile deployment, and the airspace for the mission was too deep and risky for north-south penetration, while the J-20 would face great political risk if it was shot down in the first battle.



开战已经将近3个小时，美国、日本相继通过外交管道表达了对于当前态势的谴责，但外交辞令中亦留有余地，且并没有任何进一步的军事行动。接到上级指令后，辽宁舰航母编队开始向台湾东部沿海机动。多架台战机沿东海岸巡逻应对。对台的两面夹击态势形成。


Nearly three hours into the war, the U.S. and Japan have expressed their condemnation of the current situation through diplomatic channels, but there is room for diplomatic rhetoric and no further military action. After receiving instructions from their superiors, the Liaoning carrier formation began maneuvering toward the eastern coast of Taiwan. A number of Taiwanese warplanes patrolled along the east coast in response. A two-pronged attack posture against Taiwan was formed.


由10艘022导弹艇组成的南部SAG导弹艇编队向南部的4艘光华6号导弹艇发射鹰击-83并准确命中各个目标。


The southern SAG missile boat formation, consisting of 10 022 missile boats, fires YJ-83 at the four Guanghua 6 missile boats in the south and accurately hits each target.




歼-20编队直指台湾北部心脏地带。由于台湾加强了在这一空域的战斗巡逻，给歼-20的任务执行增加了困难。多架歼-11出击，有效清理了该空域的多架敌机，为歼-20做好了铺垫。

The J-20 formation pointed directly at Taiwan's northern heartland. As Taiwan intensified combat patrols in this airspace, it added difficulties to the J-20's mission execution. Multiple J-11s struck, effectively clearing the airspace of multiple enemy aircraft and paving the way for the J-20s.


17:23，歼-20从外围发动打击，命中台军E-2K预警机。至此，两架预警机全部被击落，由于跑道遭到损坏，其余E-2K无法起飞，大型雷达已经在两轮东风打击中遭到摧毁，台军的信息化感知能力极大削弱。

At 17:23, J-20 launched a strike from the outside and hit the Taiwanese E-2K AWACS. At this point, all two early warning aircraft were shot down, and the remaining E-2Ks were unable to take off due to runway damage, and the large radar had been destroyed in two rounds of DF missile strikes, greatly weakening Taiwan's information perception capability.

Under the subsequent multiple small-scale East Wind strikes, all five major underground command centers of the Taiwanese army were finally successfully destroyed, the command system of the Taiwanese army was de facto paralyzed, all land-based radar stations were destroyed, and all runways and taxiways of all air bases except for Hsinchu and Tainan airports (which needed to be landed and occupied) were destroyed, thus effectively suppressing the main force of the Taiwanese air force from rising into the air, and our air force had basically gained air control over the Taiwan Strait. The air force had basically gained air control over the Taiwan Strait. Next, our Hsinchu landing force and its escort formation, and Tainan landing force and its escort formation will open landing operations.

OppositeDay said:

It's an offer with very serious concession from China without compromising much on Taiwanese 'democracy'. Rejecting such an offer out of hand will weaken Taiwan's international support. The biggest opposition will probably come from Penghu residents, but they all know Penghu is not going to hold in the event of a PLA attack.

Make the offer with a simultaneous massive mobilization if needed. The problem with Putin's demand on Ukraine was that what Putin was offering was strictly worse for Ukraine compared to status quo, where my hypothetical offer to Taiwan includes both positive (independence) and negatives (loss of offshore islands).



Reunification by force poses risks. Economic risks, military risks and political risks. Those are very real risks, not potential risks in the future like a Taiwanese EuroMaiden. Avoiding them is not about making me feel better morally.

EuroMaiden had a specific historical context. It's not re-creatable in Taiwan. Chinese economic pull over Taiwan is incomparably greater than Russian economic pull over Ukraine. Taiwanese Guoyu and Putonghua are the same language, Russian and Ukrainian are not the same language. In any case, what can the West offer to Taiwanese to entice them to start a EuroMaiden? Free working visas to the US? Remember even now TSMC reportedly has a harder time recruiting Taiwanese engineers to work in the U.S. than on Mainland. Remember it has to be something that the West offer, that violates the independence agreement and the Taiwanese want it bad enough to consider violate the independence agreement.

As for your last question, as I said, I talked to my family and friends, all of them pro-government Chinese citizens, and none of them wanted a war over Taiwan now they're watching a real war unfolding in Ukraine. Of course, there's a big gap between rejection of war and acceptance of a negotiated independence, but as long as China's power continues to grow, I think it's quite possible that sometime down the road people will be ready to let go. As I said, why not mark the end of century of humiliation by outcompeting and deindustrialize Japan? By being a major player in European security? By making Americans behave? Furthermore, identities change. Young Chinese are moving left. If Chinese nationalism shift from pure ethno-nationalism toward a hybrid of ethno nationalism and civic nationalism based on socialist principles (which is what the government is currently pushing), it could reach a point where Taiwanese are seen as fundamentally un-Chinese.

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Here we see a Gorbachev in his natural habitat.

tphuang said:

This unfortunately is the lesson that certain people who are ignorant of Taiwan situation would think.

As we discussed up thread, China is not Russia. It's military is already a lot stronger. With time, the gap between China/Taiwan military will only grow larger. Unless Taiwan crosses certain red lines, China will not invade Taiwan. Those red lines are well established between the governments. Even DPP is afraid to provoke it too much. China will not really push things against Taiwan until it's convinced that it can take over Taiwan quickly. As we discussed earlier in the thread, PLA still has numerous areas where it needs improvement.

Taiwan is not Ukraine. Sure, Taiwan's air defense and air force is a lot stronger than Ukraine, but we have already seen how easily PLAAF can just wear out ROCAF and mess up Taiwanese air defense radar. More importantly, Taiwan is a small place. You can take over Taiwan by simply capturing their 3 largest cities.

Most importantly, people do not seem to understand that Taiwanese elites have more or less already accepted the inevitability of a mainland takeover. They are not going to get into a guerilla warefare to resist a mainland takeover. That's just complete nonsense.

Before I visited Taiwan a few years ago, I had no idea how close Taiwan is to southern China culturally speaking or how many Taiwanese people work/live in mainland or married to people in mainland. The gap between mainland china and Taiwan in terms of culture is a lot smaller than China and HK. I follow these things pretty closely and I didn't realize these things before I visited Taiwan. If I don't understand these things, how could US political elites understand these things? This kind of article just tells you how certain groups of US military really thinks of Taiwan

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If you are Taiwanese and read this kind of nonsense, would you think America cares about you? Or would you think you are being used as a pawn in a conflict between political elites of 2 large powers? Don't think Taiwanese public is stupid or brain washed. They are not. They will do what makes the most sense for their everyday life. Not American or PRC elites. China just needs to offer Taiwan something they can stomach while also pairing that up with a lot of stick. If I'm Taiwanese, I wouldn't want PRC so control my life. But if I get to keep status quo and my government in exchange for peace + aligning my military/foreign policy with the mainland, that might be an ok trade off.

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great analysis. I would add a couple more points on some subtle shifts I see from Taiwanese talk shows:
1) slowly accepting the US will not fight PRC for them. The US can't touch Russia. The notion that the US will fight the PRC suddenly seems much less certain.
2) The PRC will lose a couple of fingers (militarily), or even a hand (economically), in the full on invasion scenario. But Taiwan will lose all its arms and legs. The destruction in Ukraine clarified that for them. But in case of Taiwan, it will be a loss of $30 lifestyle vs Ukraine's $3k lifestyle (ie. so much more to lose from war).
3) Russia is a great power. Great powers get to invade others. PRC is 10X of Russia economically. There is finally some awakening that the PRC is actually really powerful. It's estimated that around 65% of Taiwanese have never been to the mainland (but constantly exposed to biased news about the PRC).

TK3600 said:

Here we see a Gorbachev in his natural habitat.

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Oh, come on. Gorbachev gave up everything for nothing. What I'm suggesting is giving up something the West has no respect for anyway (de jure sovereignty) for something militarily extremely useful (Penghu, Lanyu, Green Island, etc,.). Good luck resisting an invasion once PLA has Penghu fully militarized and under its control.