PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

OppositeDay said:

I disagree.

Penghu and Lanyu are large enough to host PLAN naval bases.

Once China has an independent semiconductor supply chain, the economic relation between China and Taiwan will fundamentally change. By then China can inflict extraordinary economic costs to Taiwan for breaching the independence agreement.

Taiwan is a functioning democracy and there will always be a pro-China party or parties to look out for any sign of the government breaching the agreement. There will also be spies.

Middle-class life in Taiwan is too comfortable for any popular support for joining any anti-China conspiracy once there is no threat of Chinese takeover.

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You speak as if it is absolute. When USSR imploded, they were left with only promises where NATO took full advantage to where we are today. How much guarantee are you able to provide that Taiwan wont leap and host an US base whenever if China ever faces severe issues?

Taiwan isn’t simply about semiconductors but about national security. In exchange for your independence, CCP will face legitimacy issues where it could easily turn into a full blown civil war. What guarantees do you have the West won’t immediate fan the flames of civil war if they give independence?

Your option only puts China national security at greater risk because you want to do what is morally right but not what is necessary for a nation. The Americans will seize the opportunity when it presents itself just as they have in Ukraine. The world is not black and white. Neither will the Americans play by the rules even if you are strong.

tphuang said:

Try to tell that to US military commanders who are freaking out over China winning EW spectrum. They are already worried that their development cycle is too long and now you are also giving them a chip disadvantage. How are they ever going to overcome China winning AI battle or EW?

This is certainly about containment for US military/elite, but don't doubt there are some high tech industries in Taiwan that they'd not want to fall in the hand of China.

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Of course they do not want China to have advanced capabilitesIf it were up to America, China’s economic capability would be wholly subsidiary to America’s interest not unlike Japan or ROK.

Military chips are totally different beasts from the cutting edge consumer ones. So again, those fears of the American brass are not directly related. When they bring it up, it is mostly to attract greater funding. You know this is true when even the US Coast Guard is saying they will defend Taiwan


AI and EW are very reliant on software rather than raw power. If the AI is based on flawed models, then no hardware power will save it. I am not an expert, so I would hope US officers are more understanding than me.

Anyway, as people mentioned, TSMC is merely an integrator. Their skill is mainly in software. Even if they captured this EUV equipment, it’s meaningless in the long term because TSMC is not producing it themselves.

FriedButter said:

You speak as if it is absolute. When USSR imploded, they were left with only promises where NATO took full advantage to where we are today. How much guarantee are you able to provide that Taiwan wont leap and host an US base whenever if China ever faces severe issues?

Taiwan isn’t simply about semiconductors but about national security. In exchange for your independence, CCP will face legitimacy issues where it could easily turn into a full blown civil war. What guarantees do you have the West won’t immediate fan the flames of civil war if they give independence?

Your option only puts China national security at greater risk because you want to do what is morally right but not what is necessary for a nation. The Americans will seize the opportunity when it presents itself just as they have in Ukraine. The world is not black and white. Neither will the Americans play by the rules even if you are strong.

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To further emphasis, how disastrous such a move is that it would set a ticking time bomb for a civil war. All we have to do is take a look at America.

The actual number of the woke remains small—perhaps 6 percent of the population, according to Pew surveys of American political attitudes. It is educated, it is mostly white, it is heavily concentrated in the media and universities.

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That’s about 20 million Americans and 6% of Americans is enough to be causing so much disunity, chaos, hatred, etc across the US. Both sides are convinced that the other side is literally Nazi Germany.

6% of China would be about 84 million. How many people do you think is needed for a civil war? How easily can the CIA, MI5, BND, etc drop some fuel to fan the flames of war against a failed government from their perspectives. Will the hardliners back down? Just ask the Trump Supporters if they will back down against the Woke Left and vice versa.

OppositeDay said:

My terms for a Taiwan solution.
1. Beijing takes all Taiwan's offshore islands, including Penghu, Lanyu and Green Island.
2. Beijing acknowledge Taiwanese independence and Taiwan joins the UN.
3. Taiwanese recognition of Diaoyu Islands as Chinese territory.
4. Taiwan becomes permanently neutral.
5. Taiwan are required to share any intelligence received from any third country with China and not allowed to share any intelligence to any third country without Chinese approval.
6. Taiwan is not allowed to receive or host any third country military equipment without Chinese approval.
7. All terms above passed as a constitutional amendment.

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OK. So here is the question: what if DPP becomes breaks all the laws anyways? Or just rejects the offer?

Here is an electoral map of Taiwan.

Here is a language map of Taiwan.



Notice how blue = Mandarin = KMT and green = Hokkien = DPP on both maps?

DPP vs. KMT is split on ethnic lines (Hokkien vs Mainlander). DPP can easily become Taiwanese nationalist/fascist. You can trust this? And what makes you think that a fascist party would even agree to these terms? Following the discourse in Taiwan they'd rather fight to the death than accept this sort of 辱台 policy.

In that case why make the offer? It only makes you look weak and indecisive, and gives them information that you are not committed and that since their independence is negotiable so is their neutrality, so is everything, and in fact they'll be even more emboldened.

supersnoop said:

Of course they do not want China to have advanced capabilitesIf it were up to America, China’s economic capability would be wholly subsidiary to America’s interest not unlike Japan or ROK.

Military chips are totally different beasts from the cutting edge consumer ones. So again, those fears of the American brass are not directly related. When they bring it up, it is mostly to attract greater funding. You know this is true when even the US Coast Guard is saying they will defend Taiwan

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AI and EW are very reliant on software rather than raw power. If the AI is based on flawed models, then no hardware power will save it. I am not an expert, so I would hope US officers are more understanding than me.

Anyway, as people mentioned, TSMC is merely an integrator. Their skill is mainly in software. Even if they captured this EUV equipment, it’s meaningless in the long term because TSMC is not producing it themselves.

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I just got off a phone call with someone that works for Intel telling me that their product for US military does not use their own chip, but TSMC chip.

Just to use modern fighter aircraft as an example. It requires both hardware (requiring advanced chips) and software advances to form the highest capabilities in electronic warfare, fire control radar and sensor fusion.

Hendrik_2000 said:

Beijing acknowledges Taiwan independent? It will never happened in million year stop that. The idea of whole Chinese nation is so ingrained in Chinese psyche well explain by Luo Guanzhong opening poem of San guo zi "What is divided will be united" And it has been so thru China's long history.

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Ideas change. Identities change. Another deeply ingrained idea in Chinese civilization is that people of the Steppe are barbarians. They are un-Chinese. Now Mongolian Chinese, Tibetan Chinese and Uyghur Chinese are all considered Chinese. I would identify much more with an Uyghur who self-identifies as Chinese than with a Han Taiwanese who doesn't. I won't be hurt by rejection much or at all if a Han Taiwanese friend were to deny she's Chinese, I would be hurt much more if a Korean Chinese (Chaoxianzu) were to tell me she didn't consider herself Chinese. And this comes from someone who considered himself a Han nationalist in his younger days.

FriedButter said:

You speak as if it is absolute. When USSR imploded, they were left with only promises where NATO took full advantage to where we are today. How much guarantee are you able to provide that Taiwan wont leap and host an US base whenever if China ever faces severe issues?

Taiwan isn’t simply about semiconductors but about national security. In exchange for your independence, CCP will face legitimacy issues where it could easily turn into a full blown civil war. What guarantees do you have the West won’t immediate fan the flames of civil war if they give independence?

Your option only puts China national security at greater risk because you want to do what is morally right but not what is necessary for a nation. The Americans will seize the opportunity when it presents itself just as they have in Ukraine. The world is not black and white. Neither will the Americans play by the rules even if you are strong.

Click to expand...

There's never any guarantee in the grand scheme of history, and it's pointless to chase the non-existent.

Comparison to USSR is misplaced. By the time China has an independent semiconductor supply china (a prerequisite for my negotiated independence scenario), Chinese economy will outstrip US. The economy will get stronger from the independence agreement as some deep uncertainty will be removed. There's no comparison with post-Soviet Russia.

Furthermore, once Penghu is fully militarized by China and Langyu becomes a PLAN submarine base, military balance across the Strait will change. Hosting US base in violation of its independence agreement will be economic and military suicide by Taiwan.

You can indulge in your day dream but it will never happened China will never give up their claim to Taiwan period! Not in million year. Taiwan like Ukraine is China's security barrier and sense of identity as a nation. Nationalist or not does not come into picture!

OppositeDay said:

There's never any guarantee in the grand scheme of history, and it's pointless to chase the non-existent.

Comparison to USSR is misplaced. By the time China has an independent semiconductor supply china (a prerequisite for my negotiated independence scenario), Chinese economy will outstrip US. The economy will get stronger from the independence agreement as some deep uncertainty will be removed. There's no comparison with post-Soviet Russia.

Furthermore, once Penghu is fully militarized by China and Langyu becomes a PLAN submarine base, military balance across the Strait will change. Hosting US base in violation of its independence agreement will be economic and military suicide by Taiwan.

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So in other words, you are willing to trade the national securities of a nation away in exchange to make yourself feel better over morals.

What do you suggest China should do if the West recreates EuroMaiden 2014 in 2xxx? Should China invade an independent nation?

Also answer the question of the potential of civil war. Do you think the hardliners in the CCP, military, general population are going to back down. Don’t avoid it.

OppositeDay said:

Hosting US base in violation of its independence agreement will be economic and military suicide by Taiwan.

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The US has a way of inducing countries to commit suicide, there's several examples even on going today.

Also, in your example, many of those examples are of "outsiders" becoming "Chinese", not of "Chinese" becoming outsiders.

The fact of the matter is, as long as the US poses any sort of threat to China, Taiwan cannot become independent. And the day the US no longer poses a threat to China, at all, then Taiwan will not want to become independent. And in that case CPC will of course be secure enough to let Taiwan free. On that day the US would be recognizable, for it would have no nuclear submarines, no aircraft carriers, no strategic bombers, and most importantly, no desire to remain slaveowners of the rest of the world.

Do you see such a day happening?

Fedupwithlies said:

The US has a way of inducing countries to commit suicide, there's several examples even on going today.

Also, in your example, many of those examples are of "outsiders" becoming "Chinese", not of "Chinese" becoming outsiders.

The fact of the matter is, as long as the US poses any sort of threat to China, Taiwan cannot become independent. And the day the US no longer poses a threat to China, at all, then Taiwan will not want to become independent. And in that case CPC will of course be secure enough to let Taiwan free. On that day the US would be recognizable, for it would have no nuclear submarines, no aircraft carriers, no strategic bombers, and most importantly, no desire to remain slaveowners of the rest of the world.

Do you see such a day happening?

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Ah, I mean "unrecognizable".