With the amount of radlibs on Weibo even with the firewall, I'd say this is a terrible idea.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
solarz
Brigadier
Wrong thread bud.
Try to tell that to US military commanders who are freaking out over China winning EW spectrum. They are already worried that their development cycle is too long and now you are also giving them a chip disadvantage. How are they ever going to overcome China winning AI battle or EW?
This is certainly about containment for US military/elite, but don't doubt there are some high tech industries in Taiwan that they'd not want to fall in the hand of China.
This conflict unfortunately demonstrated everything Shilao podcast has been saying about Russia's declining military. Lack of training, low tempo, not realistic training, not enough advanced aircraft and poor EW capability. I will also add lack of UCAVs, weak transport/refueling operations, ineffective helicopter operations, lack of joint operation capabilities and such. Most of these things are not issues PLAAF will have when they feel they are ready to attack Taiwan. Keep in mind that PLAAF is more well trained than ROCAF.
It's a little disrespectful for Russia to be listed as such. Russians have a lot of pride. At best, you are looking at UK/Canada/Australia combined for Russia to China.
Sure, but there is a timeline where China will start pressing Taiwanese government harder. I think we all have an idea of when that will be. I don't know exactly what the civilian leaders in China are thinking of for Taiwan. I don't think they want a bloody conflict over Taiwan. But there is a problem where Taiwan represent a road block for their ESF into 2nd island chain. So, I'd imagine that will lead them to pressure Taiwan over certain things in the future. That might be achievable with KMT in power.
I live in America, follow politics very closely and think I understand the American social discourse pretty well. Who are these people advocating for a war (or a nuclear war) with China? I understand there were some in Chinese intelligence concerned that Trump would order an attack on China, but that news came out as a surprise for everyone in America. This is a pretty divided country concerned with mostly domestic affairs. Most people are just busy hating the other side. I'm also not sure why Taiwan would stand by while America tries to create problems for them.
Sure, but America' Korea bases are closer to all of northern part of China. Korea and Okinawa are about as close to Shanghai as Taiwan is.
China faces the biggest threat in its 5000 year history in the next 5 years. There is absolute the possibility of a massive pre-emptive strike to exterminate our polity by US during this period. It is absolutely imperative that China is able to at least lease some nuclear assets immediately, maybe for only next 3-5 years as we fill the silos but still crucial nonetheless.
They have some $600 billion in foreign reserves. It's unlikely that they had more than a token amount of that in the US or Europe before all this went down. I wouldn't assume they are cash strapped.
I posted something similar before and got some hate for it, but I will do it again. I prefer a negotiated independence over a war of reunification. Last few days I was talking to family and friends about Ukraine and Taiwan, and none of them wanted a war.
Right now China needs to build up its military (especially its nuclear arsenal) to deter the West from waging total economic war on China (i.e. total chips ban). Try something crazy and China will take Taiwan and nobody will have semiconductor for the next decade (especially if South Korea is also drawn to the war). Taiwan is China's human shield. But after China has its own independent semiconductor supply chain I think a peaceful settlement with Taiwan would be good. Taiwan's core industry, semiconductor, is by all indication about to hit a wall called the law of physics (and the law of diminishing economic returns), and its closed allies all want a slice of the pie too.
Taiwan is also not sprouting any industry of the future. It has the second lowest TFR after South Korea. It has a rapidly decreasing population without any potential for increased level of education to compensate. This, along with RCEP, is going to collapse Taiwan's non-semiconductor industries. War is just too inherently risky for an island with such a blank future.
I don't care if Taiwanese think they are Chinese or not. China will overtake Taiwan in GDP per capita, in cultural influence, and in basically everything. The future of Taiwan will be Poland to China's Germany. Taiwanese with ambition will have to work on the mainland.
And for the emotional closure to China's Hundred Years of Humiliation? Take it out on Japan. Outcompete the Japanese on every industry they have (other than pornography) and deindustrialize their country. Take it out on Europe. Have a permanent naval presence in the Atlantic and demand a seat on every discussion on European security. Take it out on the U.S. Tell them that if they ever dare to bomb another country of the Global South again China is prepared to sanction them. Dropping bombs on Taiwan gives me zero satisfaction.
My terms for a Taiwan solution.
1. Beijing takes all Taiwan's offshore islands, including Penghu, Lanyu and Green Island.
2. Beijing acknowledge Taiwanese independence and Taiwan joins the UN.
3. Taiwanese recognition of Diaoyu Islands as Chinese territory.
4. Taiwan becomes permanently neutral.
5. Taiwan are required to share any intelligence received from any third country with China and not allowed to share any intelligence to any third country without Chinese approval.
6. Taiwan is not allowed to receive or host any third country military equipment without Chinese approval.
7. All terms above passed as a constitutional amendment.
Right now China needs to build up its military (especially its nuclear arsenal) to deter the West from waging total economic war on China (i.e. total chips ban). Try something crazy and China will take Taiwan and nobody will have semiconductor for the next decade (especially if South Korea is also drawn to the war). Taiwan is China's human shield. But after China has its own independent semiconductor supply chain I think a peaceful settlement with Taiwan would be good. Taiwan's core industry, semiconductor, is by all indication about to hit a wall called the law of physics (and the law of diminishing economic returns), and its closed allies all want a slice of the pie too.
Taiwan is also not sprouting any industry of the future. It has the second lowest TFR after South Korea. It has a rapidly decreasing population without any potential for increased level of education to compensate. This, along with RCEP, is going to collapse Taiwan's non-semiconductor industries. War is just too inherently risky for an island with such a blank future.
I don't care if Taiwanese think they are Chinese or not. China will overtake Taiwan in GDP per capita, in cultural influence, and in basically everything. The future of Taiwan will be Poland to China's Germany. Taiwanese with ambition will have to work on the mainland.
And for the emotional closure to China's Hundred Years of Humiliation? Take it out on Japan. Outcompete the Japanese on every industry they have (other than pornography) and deindustrialize their country. Take it out on Europe. Have a permanent naval presence in the Atlantic and demand a seat on every discussion on European security. Take it out on the U.S. Tell them that if they ever dare to bomb another country of the Global South again China is prepared to sanction them. Dropping bombs on Taiwan gives me zero satisfaction.
My terms for a Taiwan solution.
1. Beijing takes all Taiwan's offshore islands, including Penghu, Lanyu and Green Island.
2. Beijing acknowledge Taiwanese independence and Taiwan joins the UN.
3. Taiwanese recognition of Diaoyu Islands as Chinese territory.
4. Taiwan becomes permanently neutral.
5. Taiwan are required to share any intelligence received from any third country with China and not allowed to share any intelligence to any third country without Chinese approval.
6. Taiwan is not allowed to receive or host any third country military equipment without Chinese approval.
7. All terms above passed as a constitutional amendment.
I think you don't understand the geostrategic significance of Taiwan to China. They will never let it go.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Beijing acknowledges Taiwan independent? It will never happened in million year stop that. The idea of whole Chinese nation is so ingrained in Chinese psyche well explain by Luo Guanzhong opening poem of San guo zi "What is divided will be united" And it has been so thru China's long history.
I disagree.
Penghu and Lanyu are large enough to host PLAN naval bases.
Once China has an independent semiconductor supply chain, the economic relation between China and Taiwan will fundamentally change. By then China can inflict extraordinary economic costs to Taiwan for breaching the independence agreement.
Taiwan is a functioning democracy and there will always be a pro-China party or parties to look out for any sign of the government breaching the agreement. There will also be spies.
Middle-class life in Taiwan is too comfortable for any popular support for joining any anti-China conspiracy once there is no threat of Chinese takeover.
That is true, but I think we should also keep in mind that the US military leadership has a track record of being worried over anything that doesn't provide them with complete dominance in a given domain.
If a domain is contestable or if a domain is one where the adversary has even a slight advantage, then they tend to scream their heads off.
Even though we are only 3 days in, I think there is a lot to be unpacked about Russia's performance in Ukraine so far that could be relevant for a PLA operation during a Taiwan contingency (i.e.: relating to only Taiwan itself).
There are some domains (including some which you mentioned) where the PLA would likely be noticeably superior to Russia in, and where it would show in a Taiwan contingency. There are also some domains in which Russia's stymied performance against Ukraine so far would not apply to the PLA due to differences in geography or domains of warfare.
But I think there are also a few aspects where the PLA shares (to a degree) Russian deficiencies, which -- while they can be remedied -- should also be acknowledged (military specific).
These include, a need for agile and persistent air to ground ISR; robust fixed wing air support with PGMs; and high intensity SEAD/DEAD to guarantee your operation of fixed wing aircraft. Those are probably the biggest mission specific lessons so far.
Once the dust on this conflict settles a bit it may be beneficial to analyze it in more detail and its applications for PLA procurement and development in relation to a Taiwan contingency.