PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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Regardless of the likelihood of eventual nuclear exchange occurring some time after a hypothetical US intervention in a Taiwan contingency -- the key point that I've wanted to establish over the last few pages is that everyone should understand that with the current forces the PLA have, China does not have a way of continuing a Taiwan invasion after US intervention has occurred, and that any hope of China being able to somehow successfully take Taiwan by successfully waging a war of attrition against the US is even more ludicrous.
All of which is another way of me saying -- any discussion about a hypothetical Taiwan contingency is best conducted where US intervention into the conflict has yet to occur.
(Obviously talking about how the PLA may hedge against it as part of force allocations for what assets they can use against Taiwan, is very reasonable)
All of which is another way of me saying -- any discussion about a hypothetical Taiwan contingency is best conducted where US intervention into the conflict has yet to occur.
(Obviously talking about how the PLA may hedge against it as part of force allocations for what assets they can use against Taiwan, is very reasonable)
It is not. China won a war of attrition with US 50 years AGO!
Re-read the last five pages or so and you will see why the Korean war is not relevant at all here.
Goodness gracious man.
That is your opinion. It is a great example. Vietnam is another one.. If you can hurt US for a long time, they leave.
I think China can win an air/sea battle close to China over Taiwan against US.
I've already given my explanations multiple times for why a war of attrition would not be viable for China, and the entire nature of a China-US conflict over Taiwan are so different to the Vietnam war of Korean war that it should be blazingly obvious.
If those differences cannot be understood, then I don't think anything else I write will be able to clarify it.
Do you understand the obvious changes in PLA capabilities and Chinese manufacturing prowess in last 4-5 decades?
China can produce more SAMs/SSMs than anyone else. Chinese shipbuilding capability is more than anyone else. Do you think US can accept loss of a few thousand planes, dozens of ships???
China was able to hold against NATO with only foot soldiers. Today's China can withhold is periphery against USA. I bet it will be much easier than Korean war.
The reason behind why we probably wont see a war is not the military balance but economic cost.
I've already addressed all of these points in previous posts.
I understand the idea of China losing a war to the US provokes an uncomfortable response, but it is better to face reality so as to allow for clear sighted future planning than trying to cope with the idea that somehow China has adequate capabilities today.
Three decades ago the PLA was outmatched by the ROC military, and by clearly recognizing it, the PLA was able to develop and procure systems in a clear headed manner such that the situation is now massively reversed.
There is no shame in that.
Same for this.
Anyone in the neutral audience can check whether my model with extensive citations is reasonable. I welcome anyone to try and refute that model, and I can address any challenges. My conclusion was that even looking at the simplest 1st step of a conflict - standoff weapons against Chinese air defense - in the worst case scenario for China, China can hold. It doesn't even account for even a single attempt at counterattack from the PLAN or PLARF, just air defense, in the worst case scenario.
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