PLA (strategic) news, pics, and videos

montyp165

Senior Member
I don’t think “2027” is some fantasy or stupidity from Western think tanks. It’s an evil plan that failed due to their own incompetence. It first came up in an interview with Indo-Pacific Commander Paparo, who claimed that by 2027 the PLA would have the initial capability to unify Taiwan.

Many U.S. senators openly, and many ordinary Westerners privately, see a unified, wealthy, modern China and Chinese people living well, as a threat. The hidden Western fantasy is that China, India, and all developing countries remain backward and traditional. They should only appear to develop enough to satisfy Western moral superiority while never truly advancing, especially never challenging the Western order. A China that successfully charts its own modern path must be suppressed or eliminated.

From this perspective, China, the CPC, and Chinese weapons must be framed as evil and incompetent. Acknowledging them as strong and capable would expose Western colonialism and oppression as evil. Political correctness prevents directly criticizing Chinese people, so they use racism and stereotypes,“Chinese can’t innovate” “Chinese are very racist” instead. They actually prefer Chinese people to live poorly, occasionally donating a few pennies to help victims in an “authoritarian” regime.

They are willing to use coups, gray-zone warfare, and conventional war to interrupt China’s natural development. Just as the U.S. engineered the Ukraine war to weaken Russia via an unlucky Ukraine and naïve Europe, they want to replicate this model in China: South China Sea after 2016, Hong Kong 2019, and potentially Taiwan.

But there’s a problem:
  1. If the U.S. doesn’t fight China full-on, its Asian allies would surrender within two months. Local proxy wars like in Ukraine would only hurt the U.S.
  2. Western economies and industries are already dependent on China, and even in full-scale war, the U.S. would struggle to win. There’s no coherent narrative for defeating China militarily.
That’s why the West pushes against China in economics, tech, diplomacy, media, and gray-zone warfare but avoids proxy or full wars. In a parallel world where points 1 and 2 weren’t true, the U.S. would already support independence and launch a war.

The U.S. surely has many military plans and political strategies to support Taiwan independence, but they can’t act on them because they can’t defeat China militarily. What we see as the “2027 narrative” is less about think tanks being stupid and more about preparing public opinion for a possible preventive war. Think tanks and media are paid to hype the near-term possibility of a Taiwan war because the West has been designing and pushing it for the near future.
The US position isn't really different from Imperial Japan's in that their combat capability is heavily front-loaded while lacking the necessary backend for a true total war situation; basically from 2027 onwards the US forces will have a highly limited window of action before Chinese military-industrial capacity decisively grinds that down, and anything past 2030-35 would be even more demonstrably decisive. That's why I won't be surprised that from the moment the US starts a war against China the PLA will be able to take the fight all the way to the continental US.
 

Brainsuker

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is no logic to that argument, if Xi can extend his term beyond 2022 without taking Taiwan, he can extend it beyond 2027 without taking Taiwan...
Xi already pass the age limit rules in cpc. Previously he changed the rules to accomodate his 3rd term. But what about now?
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Xi already pass the age limit rules in cpc. Previously he changed the rules to accomodate his 3rd term. But what about now?
The rules were technically suspended, not abolished, but the intent from the get go was for 4 terms other conditions permitting. It’s not like the possibility of 4 terms has never been broached. Discussions of more than 2 terms started even before he formally ascended to the top position. The possibility of holding power for more than 2 terms wasn’t Xi’s design alone.

Either way it’s not like Xi is going anywhere. Once he’s taking a step back he’s still basically going to play the overseer role that Deng did. Xi isn’t disappearing from Chinese politics anytime soon.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Correct me if I am wrong but don't PLA Strategic level Officer function as glorified logistic officers because of the decentralized nature of PLA? If so then I imagine it's not hard for Xi to find a replacement because Zhang can't be the only one in CMC who has a role like this.
Basically all officers on that level are logistic officers. What makes it different from the standard military office roles is the politics. There is a lot more education involved.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I have seen comments like this one a lot (not attacking you though), and I’m just going to have slightly critique this type of comment. Those who make these comments are only thinking about the lower strategic, operational and tactical levels of war. Zhang Youxia’s former position doesn’t deal with that all. His job is to advise Xi on how the current PLA could achieve the PRC’s national interests and the costs associated with such actions. The officers under his command deal more with the technical aspects of their branches or departments and advise Zhang on the theoretical and material impacts of their branches’ actions and capabilities. Regardless of all of the gizmos and gadgets the PLA has, the human factor is always consistent. This is where Zhang Youxia advises Xi Jinping on.

This is true of course, but it is also true that the senior officers likely have a level of thinking and comprehension of the modern way of war that is more limited than the more recent generations of officers, who are of course of lower rank and grade.
Then there is the culture of interpersonal relations (probably a bigger element that contributed to their dismissals) between the more senior officers and the more recent batch of officers who would have risen through the middle to upper ranks under the new system.

Taking all of those factors into account, it is balancing the totality of each "generation's" strengths and weaknesses for their respective jobs, but also the strengths and weaknesses of their norms and cultures of behaving, which likely determines their relative value to one another.


That isn't to say that all junior officers would be elevated to higher levels of command or the CMC without a care -- but rather that they are probably being deliberately selective in terms of trying to find successors with more modern experience, less problematic cultural behaviours, and with sufficient mindedness to operate at the more strategic and political levels of warfighting and military conduct.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
I have seen comments like this one a lot (not attacking you though), and I’m just going to have slightly critique this type of comment. Those who make these comments are only thinking about the lower strategic, operational and tactical levels of war. Zhang Youxia’s former position doesn’t deal with that all. His job is to advise Xi on how the current PLA could achieve the PRC’s national interests and the costs associated with such actions. The officers under his command deal more with the technical aspects of their branches or departments and advise Zhang on the theoretical and material impacts of their branches’ actions and capabilities. Regardless of all of the gizmos and gadgets the PLA has, the human factor is always consistent. This is where Zhang Youxia advises Xi Jinping on.
I somewhat disagree with that statement. Xi should promote more personnel from the PLAN and PLAAF, removing the influence of the PLAGF, which is still very strong within the PLA's CMC.

Furthermore, all the purged men belonged to factions wielding enormous internal influence. Young officers who were promoted couldn't rise through the ranks without joining a faction. I believe that's what Xi is aiming for by leading the purges; they wanted to eliminate the factions within the PLA, and Zhang's downfall is a step towards that.

In my view, Xi wants to completely eliminate factionalism within the PLA. Therefore, the CMC, as a principle of managing the overall command, the theater commands to focus on combined military operations, and the branches of the armed forces to focus on force development, would require the elimination of factions within the PLA. In addition, there are several military personnel within the PLAGF and other branches who owe their positions exclusively to Zhang; it becomes clear that the purges will continue to remove this infection within the PLA.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member

There are several rumors on both Twitter and Telegram that some army groups are refusing to obey CMC orders.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Complete BS.

Almost every day, someone captures footage of PLA convoys, as this is routine scheduling. These clowns, especially overseas dissidents, grab any random clip and claim it's as military coup.

You have to understand, these idiots can even spin the vehicle assembly for the 9·3 military parade into a military coup.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
Complete BS.

Almost every day, someone captures footage of PLA convoys, as this is routine scheduling. These clowns, especially overseas dissidents, grab any random clip and claim it's as military coup.

You have to understand, these idiots can even spin the vehicle assembly for the 9·3 military parade into a military coup.

If I were them I’d worry more about getting detained and extradited to a third country by ICE than tweeting BS news on X.
 
Top