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tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
The resumption of the civil war is just an opening phase of the Sino-American war.
I think 70% of crude oil is used for transportation. Electrification of the transport fleet will remove the need of that.

More like 50%-55%, according to deepseek . And among that,fuel for aviation and heavy equipment cannot be replaced by electricity in foreseeable future

火狐截图_2025-02-06T02-11-19.897Z.png


Western sanctions, not international. Western countries made up of only a tiny minority of the world. In time of war, security trumps economy. The Western blockade of China will mean no trade with East Asia. The West will not get any electronics anywhere.

Even if China blocks East/Yellow/South Sea,Japan can still trade with outside via Pacific Ocean,and Korea can go east into Sea of Japan then go into Pacific Ocean
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
More like 50%-55%, according to deepseek . And among that,fuel for aviation and heavy equipment cannot be replaced by electricity in foreseeable future
Bio-diesel and other synthetic fuels. Coal-to-oil is also possible.
Even if China blocks East/Yellow/South Sea,Japan can still trade with outside via Pacific Ocean,and Korea can go east into Sea of Japan then go into Pacific Ocean
Check the map. All of Japan is within 2000km of China's North East. Daily bombardment of thousands of Harpy style UAV is totally doable. Korea is even closer.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Not possible as of now
Heard of SAF and CTL?

In 2022, China built capacity of 100k tons per year to produce SAF from gut oil, the first of its kind in the country. The product has already been certified for airworthiness.

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中国首套生物航煤工业装置在中国石化镇海炼化首次产出生物航煤,意味着我国生物航煤可实现规模化生产,向大规模生产及商业化应用迈出了坚实的一步。与传统石油基航空煤油相比,生物航煤全生命周期二氧化碳排放最高可减排50%以上,该装置年设计加工能力10万吨,一年基本能消化掉一座千万人口城市回收来的地沟油,每年可减排二氧化碳约8万吨,相当于近5万辆经济型轿车停开一年。

As of 1H 2022, China had already got CTL annual capacity of over 8 million tons. The technology is ready. It was only low crude oil price that had limited the actual utilization and slowed down the push for higher capacity as planned.

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截至2022年上半年,煤制油项目共投产8家,总产能823万吨/年,但产量仅为357.2万吨。对照国家能源局印发的《煤炭深加工产业示范“十三五”规划》确定的到2020年预计建成1300万吨/年的规划目标,总体进展也滞后了。
 
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