PLA next/6th generation fighter thread

[latenlazy]

The USA needs a 6th generation, or at least 5.5th generation aircraft, sooner rather than later. The F-22 was produced in only small quantities and it has a really poor serviceability and combat readiness rate. The Super Hornet will also need a replacement. Over the next decade both China and Russia will have their own twin-engine 5th generation aircraft and what's worse for the USA is that the production lines will be rolling. A lot of countries which are major US weapons clients need long distance strike packages. Japan, Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc. This places the USA in a conundrum since they will not want their most advanced technologies to be exported to at least some of these countries. So I think what is likely to happen is that they will finance something simpler than the full blown ADVENT engine program. Like the original GE YF120 proposal for the ATF program.
In short I think a 5.5th generation aircraft is more likely than a full blown 6th generation aircraft. Things like the drone control packages will likely be cut in the initial deliveries. In the worst case even the variable cycle engine will be totally cut in favor of a rehash of the F-35's engine.

Modern computing technology does allow to simulate highly complex environments. The issue is that the transient regimes are still not well understood. Without real world data to validate the computer models these remain inacurate. However China does have large supercomputing hardware capabilities and I doubt they cannot go around most of these issues. A lot of material science problems have already been worked at by the Chinese for several years. I can't even remember the last time I read about people working on silicon carbide ball bearings and carbon-carbon composites for example before the whole thing went dark but it must have been like 3 years ago at least. The Chinese space and missile industry should also have some notion of the high-speed flight regimes and could help the aircraft industry in case that flight domain becomes relevant.

I expect the Chinese to mainly iterate on the J-20 much like they did with both the J-10 and Flanker programs over the next decade. We will see the improved engines and likely improved avionics and systems packages. I expect them to improve the pilot interface further as well and to develop novel weapons for the aircraft. We will also see the lightweight fighter program(s) bear fruit over the next decade. Meanwhile the people working on the 6th generation project will remain working on the shadows. In fact I suspect them to have been working on that program for at least 5 years already.

A rumor from a number of years back said that preliminary development on the next generation engine would begin by 2016.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

I think these features are likely to be in 6th generation fighters.

Most of are already in fifth gens.

- TVC.

Not a make or break as been an option on fourth and fifth gens for years.

- tailless design.

Not nessisarily again. Tailless is an option but it sacrifices Areodynamic surfaces and controls. A pelican tail would offer a low signature and the control surface.

- variable cycle engine.

likely very likely but this is a system to increase range not speed.
Also this is a element that can be retrofit into existing fighters.
Farther more both F22 and F35 were offered variable cycle engines the YF120 And YF136. It's possible these could be "resurrected" for future upgrades .

- dual seat version where the weapons operator acts as a drone swarm controller

possible although that seems like information overload. Probably better for some other platform. The second seat increases weight reduces range and produces an additional radar return. From the pilot and cockpit.

with a large control panel or holographic augmented reality display.

already have elements of this in fifth gens and upgraded fourth. Holographic projection is sort of a waste on this really. But AR displays are already in the latest helmet mounted cueing systems found in fighters like F35.
I split that one in two as it can also be used for main controls.

- full EOTS coverage which provides detection of threats without blind spots.

That's what the DAS is. EOTS is
Electro-Optical Targeting System it's basically the same thing as the targeting pod on a fourth gen except it has been built in to the fighter from day 0 as opposed to bolted on. DAS of Distriuted Apiture System is an array of IR cameras around the fighter that "See" around the fighter. It can see things like missile launches and enemy interceptors even ballistic missile launches 800 miles away.
EOTS is to attack targets. DAS it to search and track targets and threats.

- AI assisted target classification.

already have.

- simultaneous multiple-target selection by the weapons operator.

has been around on fourth gens and fifth gens.

- laser dazzler to blind enemy IR guided weapons and possibly enemy aircraft IRST.

Possible he'll even reasonable with lasers today though it might even "kill" the missile or enemy aircraft.

 

[localizer]

future warfare will be AI drone wars
once ur drones are dead u lose cuz ur human operated stuff doesn't stand a chance

u guys thinking too conventionally if u think that theres gonna be a human behind every drone.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

future warfare will be AI drone wars

The Drones aren't ready yet.
Sorry but thank you for playing.

once ur drones are dead u lose cuz ur human operated stuff doesn't stand a chance

perhaps for 7th gen or 8th but Drones have issues.

1. Although the AI these days is getting better and better chances of a drone smart enough to actually fully understand and operate on the battlefield is still a pipedream.
2. Much of modern warfare still has Rules of engagement that demand a human in the loop. Human can still make mistakes but a drone doesn does have the flexibility of a human. If it encounters a boogie that fails to follow it's commands it will shoot. Even if that target turns out to be a 787 with a broken radio needing to make an emergency landing.

u guys thinking too conventionally if u think that theres gonna be a human behind every drone.

3. The concepts being discussed are actually based on actual concepts published by multiple militaries based off existing concepts.
​

Finally on an aside please carefully read the rules of Engagement. U R is specifically called out as a no no

 

[Hyperwarp]

Time for some fun!

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[vesicles]

1. Much of modern warfare still has Rules of engagement that demand a human in the loop. Human can still make mistakes but a drone doesn does have the flexibility of a human. If it encounters a boogie that fails to follow it's commands it will shoot. Even if that target turns out to be a 787 with a broken radio needing to make an emergency landing.

Human has made this exact mistake, i.e. the shoot down of Iran Air Flight 655 in 1998. While human tend to make mistakes under stress, AI does not. Rules of engagement can be written into their programs for the AI to follow. And unlike human who may have difficulty memorizing the Rules of engagement, AI does not.

Also keep in mind that human has complex emotions and agenda and ambitions, etc. While the good side of that would be that human can be flexible and make good decisions to spare lives. The bad side is that many humans with their own agenda could make very bad decisions that benefit themselves but hurt others. Since ancient times, wars have been closely linked with man-made atrocities that have been caused by human operators in the field making very very bad and selfish decisions, down to the level of single soldiers and all the way up to the levels of commanding officers. Almost always, the human operators make these atrocities to satisfy their own selfish goals. The dark side of wars cannot be ignored.

AI may be less flexible, but tend to always follow the Rules of engagement.

Another good development of the AI technology is that future wars may not involve any human casualties. Two opposing forces may deploy their AI forces to face off in an AI battle. the winning side may say "we are better and stronger. We've won. Now we get to tell you what to do". The losing side concedes. Then outcome of a battle may not involve any loss of human life. It then becomes a pure demonstration of power. Although this may sound too good to be true, the use of AI may move a little closer to this end...

In fact, avoiding human casualties (either directly caused by the fighting or man-made atrocities inflicted on civilians) is one big reason that the use of AI is very attractive to me.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Human has made this exact mistake, i.e. the shoot down of Iran Air Flight 655 in 1998. While human tend to make mistakes under stress, AI does not. Rules of engagement can be written into their programs for the AI to follow. And unlike human who may have difficulty memorizing the Rules of engagement, AI does not.

Not A human multiple humans. Also KLA 007. relying on the same limited information. Well the Iran air event might have been more easily avoided. You still have a machine making the call. This is why there has been hesitation in giving AI total control

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Not A human multiple humans. Also KLA 007. relying on the same limited information. Well the Iran air event might have been more easily avoided. You still have a machine making the call. This is why there has been hesitation in giving AI total control

I will also add that the biggest advantage that a human has over an AI in such situations would be the capability to make decisions independent on the available information. Down to it, AI has yet to achieve what we call as "empathy".
This is especially true in combat situations whereby the lines between military and civilians are blurred. And the lines of self-defense and that of assault are crossed frequently.

 

[Inst]

I will also add that the biggest advantage that a human has over an AI in such situations would be the capability to make decisions independent on the available information. Down to it, AI has yet to achieve what we call as "empathy".
This is especially true in combat situations whereby the lines between military and civilians are blurred. And the lines of self-defense and that of assault are crossed frequently.

Except that, have people themselves been able to make the correct judgment? The biggest problem with AI isn't "empathy", it's that their human operators or owners can eschew responsibility by claiming that civilian casualties are "bugs" in the software program. The ethics go from deliberate murder to a car accident.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

On a less serious note. The First autonomous drone battle may have just happened. An Autonomus Tesla hit a Autonomus Promobot robot.
Again the AI is not ready.