I really wonder how urgent a "sixth" generation is for China currently? The large scale of J-20 production makes me think that they view the J-20 as a long term investment that will make up the core if not the bulk of their future fighter fleet.
Firstly, I don't know how urgent is it for China to have 6th-gen fighters being rolled out, but I do think that China and the US are (intentionally or otherwise) engaged in a race to see whose 6th-gen comes out first (whether as tech demonstrator or a flyable prototype).If you step outside of the concept of fighter aircraft "generations" and look at it from the geopolitical, technical, economic realities I feel as if the J-20 already meets the needs of China's goals and ambitions. The US doesn't have an aircraft that reflects the realities of the Asia-Pacific region and now needs to design a new aircraft around those realities.
In the meantime, there is the geopolitical and military development in the IndoPac region to consider.
The key point? China is currently facing an ever increasing pressure from countries that are:
1. Clearly and seriously trying to fvck around with China, and/or
2. Have significant interests in the IndoPac region.
Many of these countries are also:
1. Developing their own 6th-gen fighters (NGAD, F/A-XX, GCAP, FCAS); and/or
2. Developing their own 5th-gen (or 5.5th-gen in the later years) fighters (KF-21, AMCA, KAAN); and/or
3. Procuring an ever large number of F-35s.
Therefore, why shouldn't China work on her own 6th-gen fighter projects as well? It certainly is good to have as many 5th-gen J-20s and J-31/35s as possible, and as quickly as possible - But that doesn't mean China should just give up on any work to further enhancing, securing, maintaining and advancing her edges in the skies across the IndoPac region through the rest of the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s and beyond.
In the meantime, I'd like to view the gearing-up of the J-20's production rate in recent years as being a general, across-the-board effort to upgrade the PLAAF's fighter fleet that is just naturally following the advancement and progress of technological level for fighter jets and aerial combat - That is, from a predominantly 3rd+4th-gen one to a predominantly 5th-gen (with some portion being 4.5th-gen) one - Rather than being indicative of how J-20s are going to stay mainstream in the late-2020s, 2030s and beyond. This is similar to how the Sino Flankers and J-10s were introduced into the PLAAF in large numbers to phase out the so-called "largest functional museum" fighter fleet of the PLAAF in the 2000s and early-2010s (which were still predominantly J-7s and J-8s).
I don't think that's the exact way to say it.I think the US side of the equation is very different in that the next US air superiority fighter has be designed around a totally different set of assumptions then the F-22 was designed and built on. I don't see that being the case for the successor of the J-20.
I believe the more accurate description would be as follows:
The US finally realizes that their methodology of setting parameters for their 5th-gen fighters (F-22 and F-35) has been rather flawed and short-sighted, with the exclusive focus on the European frontier only. Meanwhile, China managed to set their parameters on their 5th-gen fighters correctly by accurately ensivioning that future wars involving China will definitely involve warplanes flying across hundreds and thousands of kilometers of vast oceans, mountain ranges, or empty deserts in order to fight the enemy.
Heck, China got their priorities right even before the first J-20 prototype left the assembly hall in Chengdu. The PLAAF's decision to choose the Su-27 over the MiG-29 to reverse-engineer and upgrade into what are known as the Sino Flankers today (J-11 and J-16) way back in the early-1990s is a proof of that.
That's why we see the situation today vis a vis the Pentagon complaining that they don't have advanced fighters that can fight China across long distances, with limited number of bases spread across vast expanses of the Pacific that are increasingly become more vulnerable to aerial, naval and missile strikes by the PLA.
Therefore, while the US do have some chasing work to do in terms of effective range and combat range of their fighters through the NGAD and F/A-XX programs, I believe that China should keep - And is already - Piling on the presently-available edge over the US in terms of range by designing her own 6th-gens with twice, triple, or even quadruple the effective combat range of the current J-20.
China needs to, and is going to keep on advancing and progressing. With the developing geopolitical landscape in the IndoPac, China has no time to rest.All of this is to say that I think the J-20 gives China an advantage and that it may be better leveraged by continuing to produce the J-20 in large numbers and upgrade existing units. Eventually they will have to design a replacement aircraft for sure, but not as urgently as the US does.
By now, it can be said that China and the US are already engaged in an arms race, whether we like to admit or not. And, an arms race isn't a 400-meter sprint - It's a marathon.
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