PLA next/6th generation fighter thread

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
I really wonder how urgent a "sixth" generation is for China currently? The large scale of J-20 production makes me think that they view the J-20 as a long term investment that will make up the core if not the bulk of their future fighter fleet.
If you step outside of the concept of fighter aircraft "generations" and look at it from the geopolitical, technical, economic realities I feel as if the J-20 already meets the needs of China's goals and ambitions. The US doesn't have an aircraft that reflects the realities of the Asia-Pacific region and now needs to design a new aircraft around those realities.
Firstly, I don't know how urgent is it for China to have 6th-gen fighters being rolled out, but I do think that China and the US are (intentionally or otherwise) engaged in a race to see whose 6th-gen comes out first (whether as tech demonstrator or a flyable prototype).

In the meantime, there is the geopolitical and military development in the IndoPac region to consider.

The key point? China is currently facing an ever increasing pressure from countries that are:
1. Clearly and seriously trying to fvck around with China, and/or
2. Have significant interests in the IndoPac region.

Many of these countries are also:
1. Developing their own 6th-gen fighters (NGAD, F/A-XX, GCAP, FCAS); and/or
2. Developing their own 5th-gen (or 5.5th-gen in the later years) fighters (KF-21, AMCA, KAAN); and/or
3. Procuring an ever large number of F-35s.

Therefore, why shouldn't China work on her own 6th-gen fighter projects as well? It certainly is good to have as many 5th-gen J-20s and J-31/35s as possible, and as quickly as possible - But that doesn't mean China should just give up on any work to further enhancing, securing, maintaining and advancing her edges in the skies across the IndoPac region through the rest of the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s and beyond.

In the meantime, I'd like to view the gearing-up of the J-20's production rate in recent years as being a general, across-the-board effort to upgrade the PLAAF's fighter fleet that is just naturally following the advancement and progress of technological level for fighter jets and aerial combat - That is, from a predominantly 3rd+4th-gen one to a predominantly 5th-gen (with some portion being 4.5th-gen) one - Rather than being indicative of how J-20s are going to stay mainstream in the late-2020s, 2030s and beyond. This is similar to how the Sino Flankers and J-10s were introduced into the PLAAF in large numbers to phase out the so-called "largest functional museum" fighter fleet of the PLAAF in the 2000s and early-2010s (which were still predominantly J-7s and J-8s).

I think the US side of the equation is very different in that the next US air superiority fighter has be designed around a totally different set of assumptions then the F-22 was designed and built on. I don't see that being the case for the successor of the J-20.
I don't think that's the exact way to say it.

I believe the more accurate description would be as follows:
The US finally realizes that their methodology of setting parameters for their 5th-gen fighters (F-22 and F-35) has been rather flawed and short-sighted, with the exclusive focus on the European frontier only. Meanwhile, China managed to set their parameters on their 5th-gen fighters correctly by accurately ensivioning that future wars involving China will definitely involve warplanes flying across hundreds and thousands of kilometers of vast oceans, mountain ranges, or empty deserts in order to fight the enemy.

Heck, China got their priorities right even before the first J-20 prototype left the assembly hall in Chengdu. The PLAAF's decision to choose the Su-27 over the MiG-29 to reverse-engineer and upgrade into what are known as the Sino Flankers today (J-11 and J-16) way back in the early-1990s is a proof of that.

That's why we see the situation today vis a vis the Pentagon complaining that they don't have advanced fighters that can fight China across long distances, with limited number of bases spread across vast expanses of the Pacific that are increasingly become more vulnerable to aerial, naval and missile strikes by the PLA.

Therefore, while the US do have some chasing work to do in terms of effective range and combat range of their fighters through the NGAD and F/A-XX programs, I believe that China should keep - And is already - Piling on the presently-available edge over the US in terms of range by designing her own 6th-gens with twice, triple, or even quadruple the effective combat range of the current J-20.

All of this is to say that I think the J-20 gives China an advantage and that it may be better leveraged by continuing to produce the J-20 in large numbers and upgrade existing units. Eventually they will have to design a replacement aircraft for sure, but not as urgently as the US does.
China needs to, and is going to keep on advancing and progressing. With the developing geopolitical landscape in the IndoPac, China has no time to rest.

By now, it can be said that China and the US are already engaged in an arms race, whether we like to admit or not. And, an arms race isn't a 400-meter sprint - It's a marathon.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
I really wonder how urgent a "sixth" generation is for China currently? The large scale of J-20 production makes me think that they view the J-20 as a long term investment that will make up the core if not the bulk of their future fighter fleet.

I think the US side of the equation is very different in that the next US air superiority fighter has be designed around a totally different set of assumptions then the F-22 was designed and built on. I don't see that being the case for the successor of the J-20.

If you step outside of the concept of fighter aircraft "generations" and look at it from the geopolitical, technical, economic realities I feel as if the J-20 already meets the needs of China's goals and ambitions. The US doesn't have an aircraft that reflects the realities of the Asia-Pacific region and now needs to design a new aircraft around those realities.

All of this is to say that I think the J-20 gives China an advantage and that it may be better leveraged by continuing to produce the J-20 in large numbers and upgrade existing units. Eventually they will have to design a replacement aircraft for sure, but not as urgently as the US does.
Like you I'm not sure about how urgent a "sixth" generation is for China currently. J-20 have new variants and improvements coming up making it able to narrow the gap to the next generation while his conterpart, the f-22 is out of production and will not be improved a lot until it retire completely.

The US need a new air superiority fighter rapidly because F-22 are retiring soon and numbers available are dwingling rapidly with nightmarish maintenance and f-35 don't seem to fill his shoes. The US need a 6th generation program settled up fast also because most of their programs are falling way behind schedules.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Quite likely there are efforts both at Chengdu and Shenyang for 6th gen. But Shenyang is busy with the J-35 so I doubt they have as many people working on it.
TBH, we know that the J-35 prototypes have conducted tens - If not hundreds - Of flight tests and evaluations by now. Perhaps the J-35 is getting closer towards becoming fully mature, and that the PLAN and Shenyang are just waiting for CV-18 Fujian to enter service before kickstarting the J-35's serial production.

In the meantime, I'm thinking that the PLAN and Shenyang should consider the J-35 as a mid-term interim solution for their carrier-based fighter fleet.

Reason? The USN is already busily working on developing a 6th-gen complementor and successor to the F/A-18s and F-35Cs, i.e. the F/A-XX.

Therefore, I believe that now is the prime time for the PLAN and Shenyang to start allocating more focus and resources (alongside closer cooperation with Chengdu and the PLAAF) towards developing China's carrier-based 6th-gen fighter.
 
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sequ

Major
Registered Member
TBH, we know that the J-35 prototypes have conducted tens - If not hundreds - Of flight tests and evaluations by now. Perhaps the J-35 is getting closer towards becoming fully mature, and that the PLAN and Shenyang are just waiting for CV-18 Fujian to enter service before kickstarting the J-35's serial production.

In the meantime, I'm thinking that the PLAN and Shenyang should consider the J-35 as a mid-term interim solution for their carrier-based fighter fleet.

Reason? The USN is already busily working on developing a 6th-gen complementor and successor to the F/A-18s and F-35Cs, i.e. the F/A-XX.

Therefore, I believe that now is the prime time for the PLAN and Shenyang to start allocating more focus and resources (alongside closer cooperation with Chengdu and the PLAAF) towards developing China's carrier-based 6th-gen fighter.
The game of catch up is very frustrating. Thinking that WS-15 and WS-19 gives some relief, only to be confronted with the need for even better performing platforms and thus better engines.
 
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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Yeah, I am most likely completely wrong as it just armchair speculation on my part.

Do we know where China stands on variable cycle engines? That is the one area where the US seems to be far ahead of China. We know they have the General Electric XA100 and Pratt & Whitney XA101. If you look at the history of those programs it goes back like 20 years [Versatile Affordable Advanced Turbine Engines (VAATE) --> Adaptive Versatile Engine Technology (ADVENT) --> Adaptive Engine Technology Demonstrator (AETD) -->Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP)] of R&D and investments in turbofan technology.
We know China made significant breakthrough on the combined cycle engine. The progress should be pretty close with US. Soviet Union had a even earlier headstart in the 90s, but we all know why that stopped. Likewise US also had a headstart, but for one reason or another it didn't go through either. New F-35 could have used the XA-100 engine but it was cancelled.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Air Force wanted to mitigate risk on the ATF downselect. They thought the GE variable cycle engine was unproven technology and did not want to chance it. For much the same reason they went with the YF-22 instead of the YF-23. Although the YF-23 airframe had better performance in terms of speed and stealth. Arguably they did they right decision with regards to the airframe since the YF-23 had unresolved issues with the weapons bays. Although there are some people who to this day claim Pratt & Whitney and Lockheed Martin won because of lobbying.
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
The game of catch up is very frustrating. Thinking that WS-15 and WS-19 gives some relief, only to be confronted with the need for even better performing platforms and thus better engines.
its true China is still catching up but gap is rapidly closing. with WS-15, we have reached at certain stage where China can compete with USA in traditional military engine sector..

main question, what about next generation engine.

China made significant breakthrough in next generation engine technologies. in December 2022, Liu Daxiang An Academician from Chinese Academy of Engineering. He Specialized in Turbofan Engines officially acknowledged about the existence of next generation engine program with T/W ratio of 15. that engine definitely for 6th generation fighter jet.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
The game of catch up is very frustrating. Thinking that WS-15 and WS-19 gives some relief, only to be confronted with the need for even better performing platforms and thus better engines.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

May not be related to any future combined cycle military engine project and could just be for general research, but the above paper should help people get a sense of where R&D on this technology is in China.

EDIT: looks like the link is dead. I have the pdf and now figuring out how to share that.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

May not be related to any future combined cycle military engine project and could just be for general research, but the above paper should help people get a sense of where R&D on this technology is in China.

EDIT: looks like the link is dead. I have the pdf and now figuring out how to share that.


These are the first two pages.
 

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