Those mission profiles would require said fighter jets to have RBCC, TBCC or TRCC-type of engines, which are still very much under development right now and will not be ready for introduction (let alone on fighter jets) for at least another decade or more.
PLA next/6th generation fighter thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Would a plane two generations ahead of the J-20 really come out as soon as 2040? I have huge doubts on that. We've had 4th gen fighters for over 50 years now, the strongest militaries are STILL building new 4th gen fighters for their Air Forces (F-15EX, J-16, Su-35, Rafale, Typhoon). The J-20 still hasn't received it's intended engines and China's other fifth gen fighter is still under development. No way in 17 years would we get something that advanced.
Depends on what we mean by generation.
If a PR term only - easily: just hire a intern. That's the way Lockheed does it.
If a tech term only - easy as well: military aviation tech, unless severely disrupted, tends to bring significant new capabilities in 10-year cycles. 20 years down the line from the J-20A - and here we are.
If, however, we want some specific revolution from the generation - then unlikely.
They're quite different from what they were 50 years ago, though.
Probably better to say ~2040s, which could mean middle or end of 2040s.
We're in the digital age. With how quickly processing power increased in the last 15 years, China should have the capability to build something far superior to the current J-20.
I think SAC should roll out their 5th gen jet first.....
Harsh
The question is when we consider investment into J-20 paying off enough. And unimplementable technologies being important enough to start a new set of costly&time consuming research and development programs.
J-20 is recent, (Same subgeneration as F-35) sneaky (i.e. built to 2010s level low-observability tech) - and, apart from the airframe improvements, most '6th' gen stuff shall be implementable into it.
IMHO - the likelier to come isn't going to be J-20 replacement (why replace something so fresh?), but:
- unmanned stablemates;
- JH-7 replacement;
- J-11 replacement;
- J-10 replacement.
Which may come in different forms (1:1; indirect replacements; so on)
Tbh a 5.5gen aircraft can replace all of those. Imagine a jacked up J-20 two seater backed by a variety drones optimized various missions. There can be air to air drones that pack lots of missile for cheap. There can be cheap ground strike drones that attack while J-20 is not exposed.
I would imagine the 6th gen will be something very different compared to J-20. Something big with long range. It will be very expensive but the cost is made up by fact it is less vulnerable due to drone companions. I think this is important due to how vulnerable air base has become. Something as short legged as J-20 and F-35 cannot operate across pacific without exposing itself to cheap SRBM. For US it is the vulnerability to ballistic missiles, for China they lack oversea air base. Aircraft carriers too are becoming vulnerable. This is something an interceptor-like jet with combined cycle engine can overcome with more range.
These kind of interceptor are not new, Mig-31 is an example. They have weaknesses inherent to their design that new 6th gen technology can overcome. They lack agility and are unsuitable for air to air combat. New engine allows it to be fairly agile and fuel efficient even at high speed. Unlike Mig-31 that entirely rely on speed to survive its vulnerability, there are now stealth technology. It no longer needs to min maxing on speed to keep it safe.
I would imagine the 6th gen will be something very different compared to J-20. Something big with long range. It will be very expensive but the cost is made up by fact it is less vulnerable due to drone companions. I think this is important due to how vulnerable air base has become. Something as short legged as J-20 and F-35 cannot operate across pacific without exposing itself to cheap SRBM. For US it is the vulnerability to ballistic missiles, for China they lack oversea air base. Aircraft carriers too are becoming vulnerable. This is something an interceptor-like jet with combined cycle engine can overcome with more range.
These kind of interceptor are not new, Mig-31 is an example. They have weaknesses inherent to their design that new 6th gen technology can overcome. They lack agility and are unsuitable for air to air combat. New engine allows it to be fairly agile and fuel efficient even at high speed. Unlike Mig-31 that entirely rely on speed to survive its vulnerability, there are now stealth technology. It no longer needs to min maxing on speed to keep it safe.