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TopolMSS27

Just Hatched
Registered Member
More of the satellite photos of the new sailless submarine (possibly XLUUV) and the floating drydock. Posted by @MT_Anderson on Twitter.


Apparently he wasn't allowed to share the 15cm resolution photograph from Maxar of the submarine, so he can only post the 50cm resolution photograph from Airbus.

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Maybe I'm missing something - but I have the same 50 cm Airbus imagery and I see zero sub in it. Even at a better image quality than published in Twitter (X). Maybe the 15 cm (really HD'd 30 cm) Maxar imagery does show something different ‍♂️

As the 50 cm image I have is for work purposes, I also can't share it. Maybe one day.

But what I do see in other imagery of the basin, including 30 cm, is the same floating dock with keel blocks that when submerged look like the shape of a submarine - when I measured these they are practically the same as the dimensions mentioned in the Tweet. I'd also say that the dock is barely flooded in the Jan 10 imagery. You'd see the sub in 50 cm imagery if it was there.

The X form rudder could well be one of the keel block sets that actually do look like a X.

I'll just say that when I analysed this imagery in January - prior to this Tweet - I thought they were testing life rafts in a safe environment. They do the same near my location in open dry docks.
 

para80

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe I'm missing something - but I have the same 50 cm Airbus imagery and I see zero sub in it. Even at a better image quality than published in Twitter (X). Maybe the 15 cm (really HD'd 30 cm) Maxar imagery does show something different ‍♂️
I've seen the imagery MT Anderson is referring to and can confirm there is a submarine/UUV in that floating dock. The reddish parts visible in the tweet are one of the x-tail rudders and what appears to be a foldable snorkel/sensor mast somewhat similar to, but more pronounced than Boeing's Orca.
 

TopolMSS27

Just Hatched
Registered Member
OK great. Thanks. It sure as hell doesn't look like it in 50 cm imagery.

I do wonder where he gets his money from. That 15 cm = $200 minimum.
 

by78

General
Nice images from the Bund.

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00CuriousObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Some notes from the latest paid 察话会 episode:
  • Fujian has launched planes with its EMALS and they (soft) confirmed there are 16 055s. I've made comments in the respective threads
  • They have no info on the 3rd Type 901 and Yankee is perplexed by this as well. There are 2 more 903s, however it's theorized that these are for the CCG
  • It's only a matter of time before the number of 052Ds exceeds 40
  • There is a 5th 075
  • A shortage of personnel, especially higher ranking experienced personnel, is a serious issue with the scale of PLAN's expansion
    • They went in depth on this, but the severity of the problem cannot be overstated
    • It also has huge implications on procurement and types of weapons equipped, as slower iterations in ship and weapon acquisition make it easier and faster to train personnel
    • It's not as big of an issue for submarines due to their nature, as well as PLAN's nuclear submarine development taking longer than intended/planned
They said explicitly that the personnel issue is the takeaway for the audience, because it has severe implications for PLAN's strength, more than just having a few more ships.

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Edit, a couple other things
  • The navalized version of GJ-11 is called GJ-21 (I heard this from 约克 a while ago so credibility +1)
  • The Type 076 is not a "Taiwan-oriented" or """Taiwan-related""" ship, and this raised some debates during its procurement process
 
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ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
  • They went in depth on this, but the severity of the problem cannot be overstated
Was it elaborated on which specific ships/components of the PLAN this most affects? Eg for the newest built 052Ds/055s will there be a significant lag after commissioning until they're combat ready?

Honestly I find it a bit surprising the emphasis they're placing on this apparent problem, when the USN has not/did not seem to experience a similar bottleneck despite a larger fleet & smaller population.
 
Honestly I find it a bit surprising the emphasis they're placing on this apparent problem, when the USN has not/did not seem to experience a similar bottleneck despite a larger fleet & smaller population.
The USN never underwent expansion at such a rapid pace - the USN was always big. The more trained personnel you already have, the faster you can train additional personnel.

Though I am surprised that the PLAN could not foresee this bottleneck in advance.
 
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