Sure, big trends are decades long. I am pointing out there is a lull in orders/building happening. I am not saying it means this or that, I am just stating its fact. Perhaps we'll see as soon as 2023 a bunch of new ships launched.
But for now, given that there aren't any big ships being under construction, it seems likely that 2022 will not see many ships launched. Several frigates likely and the 003. But it seems there won't be any destroyers launched, or corvettes or amphibious assault ships.
the 003 will, of course, singlehandedly make a big difference in combined tonnage launched for 2022. But without it, the tonnage would be very, very low. Even with it, there were some years with bigger combined tonnage.
This list of launched vessels per year lacks submarines and ships under 1000 t. It does include assault ships.
2006 - 3 ships for 33 000 t.
2007 - 2 for 8 000 t.
2008 - zero.
2009 - 3 for 12 000 t.
2010 - 4 for 40 000 t.
2011 - 7 for 106 000 t. (includes 001 carrier)
2012 - 15 for 50 000 t.
2013 - 14 for 31 000 t.
2014 - 12 for 23 000 t.
2015 - 17 for 71 000 t.
2016 - 13 for 38 000 t.
2017 - 11 for 122 000 t. (includes 002 carrier)
2018 - 17 for 133 000 t.
2019 - 29 for 165 000 t.
2020 - 4 for 71 000 t.
2021 - 5 for 42 000 t.
2022 - 5 for 100 000 t. (estimate, includes 003 carrier)
So the last 3 full 5-year plans show quite a surge in shipbuilding, though the 2006-2010 one did also feature a lull right in the middle of it. With both the first and the last year of that 5-year plan being quite big on newly launched ships.
the 2011 to 2015 plan saw those max annual tonnage levels sustained throughout, with the surge in the year when the carrier got launched. There were no dips or lulls.
The 2016 to 2020 plan saw even further rise in numbers. While the 2017 may seem like an outlier, due to the carrier, the following two years showed the surge continued, and was specific to that 5-year plan. There there was the 2020, where we saw a drop. Tonnage wise it didn't seem like much of a drop, being still better than most years before 2017, but in number of ships it was a drop comparable to the 2006-2010 annual numbers.
Then came 2021. And we see the very same numbers. Very few new ships. And due to even fewer big assault ships and petering off of the destroyer buildup, total tonnage dropped as well. If that one 075 ship wasn't launched in 2021, the total would have been just 4 ships with combined tonnage of some 16 000 t.
And we can already see that 2022 won't be much better in term of number of ships.
It's interesting to me that none of the other shown 5-year plan schedules featured lulls right at the very beginning of the 5 year plan. Yet this new 5-year plan seems to have its first two years set low, and all that coming on top of a very low last year of the previous plan.
The closest thing to such a dip in building/orders was way back in 2007 to 2009.
I don't think there's any good info to conclude what all this means. It can all be a very well thought out plan that includes even more ships, but some are being hidden. But other explanations for this kind of a dip are possible as well. The longer the lull continues, the better we'll be able to explain it, why it happened. Once again, I'm not trying to insinuate anything, but I am pointing out that there will be a 2-3 year period that hasn't really happened to PLAN in some time.
I also happen to think that 5-year plans are not necessarily something that are a gospel for PLAN's plans. And that the orders dynamic is not bound to them, but is more organic and limited by various other factors.
Also, from the pure manufacturing/quality/financial standpoint, it's better not to have big variances in building output. But to try and have all the years over a long period (10 years or more) have a similar number of products. Big items like carriers will skew the tonnage periodically, but submarines, destroyers and frigates are more sensible to build without short term (a few years long) lulls.
But for now, given that there aren't any big ships being under construction, it seems likely that 2022 will not see many ships launched. Several frigates likely and the 003. But it seems there won't be any destroyers launched, or corvettes or amphibious assault ships.
the 003 will, of course, singlehandedly make a big difference in combined tonnage launched for 2022. But without it, the tonnage would be very, very low. Even with it, there were some years with bigger combined tonnage.
This list of launched vessels per year lacks submarines and ships under 1000 t. It does include assault ships.
2006 - 3 ships for 33 000 t.
2007 - 2 for 8 000 t.
2008 - zero.
2009 - 3 for 12 000 t.
2010 - 4 for 40 000 t.
2011 - 7 for 106 000 t. (includes 001 carrier)
2012 - 15 for 50 000 t.
2013 - 14 for 31 000 t.
2014 - 12 for 23 000 t.
2015 - 17 for 71 000 t.
2016 - 13 for 38 000 t.
2017 - 11 for 122 000 t. (includes 002 carrier)
2018 - 17 for 133 000 t.
2019 - 29 for 165 000 t.
2020 - 4 for 71 000 t.
2021 - 5 for 42 000 t.
2022 - 5 for 100 000 t. (estimate, includes 003 carrier)
So the last 3 full 5-year plans show quite a surge in shipbuilding, though the 2006-2010 one did also feature a lull right in the middle of it. With both the first and the last year of that 5-year plan being quite big on newly launched ships.
the 2011 to 2015 plan saw those max annual tonnage levels sustained throughout, with the surge in the year when the carrier got launched. There were no dips or lulls.
The 2016 to 2020 plan saw even further rise in numbers. While the 2017 may seem like an outlier, due to the carrier, the following two years showed the surge continued, and was specific to that 5-year plan. There there was the 2020, where we saw a drop. Tonnage wise it didn't seem like much of a drop, being still better than most years before 2017, but in number of ships it was a drop comparable to the 2006-2010 annual numbers.
Then came 2021. And we see the very same numbers. Very few new ships. And due to even fewer big assault ships and petering off of the destroyer buildup, total tonnage dropped as well. If that one 075 ship wasn't launched in 2021, the total would have been just 4 ships with combined tonnage of some 16 000 t.
And we can already see that 2022 won't be much better in term of number of ships.
It's interesting to me that none of the other shown 5-year plan schedules featured lulls right at the very beginning of the 5 year plan. Yet this new 5-year plan seems to have its first two years set low, and all that coming on top of a very low last year of the previous plan.
The closest thing to such a dip in building/orders was way back in 2007 to 2009.
I don't think there's any good info to conclude what all this means. It can all be a very well thought out plan that includes even more ships, but some are being hidden. But other explanations for this kind of a dip are possible as well. The longer the lull continues, the better we'll be able to explain it, why it happened. Once again, I'm not trying to insinuate anything, but I am pointing out that there will be a 2-3 year period that hasn't really happened to PLAN in some time.
I also happen to think that 5-year plans are not necessarily something that are a gospel for PLAN's plans. And that the orders dynamic is not bound to them, but is more organic and limited by various other factors.
Also, from the pure manufacturing/quality/financial standpoint, it's better not to have big variances in building output. But to try and have all the years over a long period (10 years or more) have a similar number of products. Big items like carriers will skew the tonnage periodically, but submarines, destroyers and frigates are more sensible to build without short term (a few years long) lulls.
