What I actually meant was that it is almost certain that a small but meaningful percentage of the fleet of these drones will end up in nets, it’s inevitable given how many of these would be deployed and the number of nets.I guess by "expected" Andy1974 meant that it is dispensable, something you know would be easily lost.
No, I don't think it can be used to track the where-about of PLA facilities. The very first thing when this kind of thing is picked up at the fishing harbor is to wrap it with electromagnetic shields like blind-folding a hostage before getting into the car. Many of the fishermen are trained by PLA, so they may have some shield and instructions onboard, the fisher man said he contacted the National Security Bureau immediately while at sea over satellite phone.
Even if it’s 1% probability over a year, that’s still huge, and you can’t take a huge intelligence risk with that. Hence these things can’t be too advanced hardware wise, what it is doing isn’t all that sophisticated, it can send pings into the water, it can pick certain things up and network with other assets via satellite, which can include nerby subs that can actually pick up its ping reflections better than this thing could.
A thousand of these things or their successors could be deployed along and within the first island chain, acting as a sensor network for the US attack subs and other asset.