PLA Navy news, pics and videos

Temstar said:

Holy shit, how reliable is this source?

Click to expand...

I've never heard of the person before, personally.
More important I think is some of the claims are a little bit too specific at this stage.
It describes 003 being launched in 2021 as well which is dubious at best.

I wouldn't get too excited, I think with time we will see things unfold.

sinophilia said:

Only one Type 076?

Also if it’s true a second Type 003 will be built will the other Type 003 only be built once this one is launched? Must mean we may have to wait into the 2030s for a nuclear powered carrier then. Unless production rates increase or something.

Click to expand...

As I said above, I wouldn't take it too seriously, it all seems a bit too specific and there are a few mistakes as well.

More importantly, the listed ships are ones that the OP claims would be for the 14-FYP -- note, five year plan.
I.e.: running from 2021 to 2025.
The guy lists 2x 003 carriers and 6x 075s and 1x 076 from that would be procured in that time period, which presumably would imply ships that we haven't seen yet.
But again, I'm 99% sure this is just the guy's own guess.


Your post seems to be conveying a sense of disappointment -- for the purposes of discussion, let's say the OP's guess does come to pass -- the PLAN would literally be buying 6 new 075s, 2 new 003s, and 1 new 076 between 2021 and 2025.
It doesn't claim what the PLAN will buy from 2026-2030.


=======

However all of this is just someone's guess, and I'm a bit surprised that we're getting worked up about it.


IMO it could be a couple of years until we get a concrete picture about just how the PLAN intends to proceed with carrier procurement post the first 003, but I think that information will be conveyed to us by someone known to be credible with a reputable track record rather than some random.

Bltizo said:

I've never heard of the person before, personally.
More important I think is some of the claims are a little bit too specific at this stage.
It describes 003 being launched in 2021 as well which is dubious at best.

I wouldn't get too excited, I think with time we will see things unfold.




As I said above, I wouldn't take it too seriously, it all seems a bit too specific and there are a few mistakes as well.

More importantly, the listed ships are ones that the OP claims would be for the 14-FYP -- note, five year plan.
I.e.: running from 2021 to 2025.
The guy lists 2x 003 carriers and 6x 075s and 1x 076 from that would be procured in that time period, which presumably would imply ships that we haven't seen yet.
But again, I'm 99% sure this is just the guy's own guess.


Your post seems to be conveying a sense of disappointment -- for the purposes of discussion, let's say the OP's guess does come to pass -- the PLAN would literally be buying 6 new 075s, 2 new 003s, and 1 new 076 between 2021 and 2025.
It doesn't claim what the PLAN will buy from 2026-2030.


=======

However all of this is just someone's guess, and I'm a bit surprised that we're getting worked up about it.


IMO it could be a couple of years until we get a concrete picture about just how the PLAN intends to proceed with carrier procurement post the first 003, but I think that information will be conveyed to us by someone known to be credible with a reputable track record rather than some random.

Click to expand...

I did preface my comments by saying “If it’s true”. Knowing how many people get their ‘confident’ predictions wrong I don’t trust anything that isn’t given a stamp of approval by you and Deino and other trustworthy watchers.

I mean there’s a whole industry of PLA watcher photoshoppers who make it even harder to determine if something is true or not, on top of all the other stuff. I know everything that isn’t verified to a high degree of confidence by those that are considered trustworthy sources can’t be taken as gospel.

And even then it’s not always 100% accurate.

sinophilia said:

I did preface my comments by saying “If it’s true”. Knowing how many people get their ‘confident’ predictions wrong I don’t trust anything that isn’t given a stamp of approval by you and Deino and other trustworthy watchers.

I mean there’s a whole industry of PLA watcher photoshoppers who make it even harder to determine if something is true or not, on top of all the other stuff. I know everything that isn’t verified to a high degree of confidence by those that are considered trustworthy sources can’t be taken as gospel.

And even then it’s not always 100% accurate.

Click to expand...

I know, I'm just further emphasizing that it almost certainly is just some random's guess.


The part of my reply directed at you was to ask why your previous post seemed to express disappointment at the OP's claims/guesses, because if they were real they would be very formidable and quite impressive.

Bltizo said:

IMO it could be a couple of years until we get a concrete picture about just how the PLAN intends to proceed with carrier procurement post the first 003, but I think that information will be conveyed to us by someone known to be credible with a reputable track record rather than some random.

Click to expand...

I currently don't know of any valid evidence whether 003 will remain a loner or whether a sister ship will be built.

Bltizo said:

I know, I'm just further emphasizing that it almost certainly is just some random's guess.


The part of my reply directed at you was to ask why your previous post seemed to express disappointment at the OP's claims/guesses, because if they were real they would be very formidable and quite impressive.

Click to expand...

The reason is because I recall seeing another prediction made that was posted here, which was held in higher esteem by a lot of members, and it was similar to this one but excluded estimates on carriers. So assuming that one was correct I assumed there was a possibility this one could be. Not like I gave it more than a 50/50 chance, but assuming it was true I'd have been disappointed at the thought that another Type 003 will be built despite not seeing any evidence of its construction, which could mean it could be built only when this one was launched and if that's true and they are not going to be built in tandem then that just adds more delays to the eventual launching of the nuclear powered carrier.

I believe that the other prediction also had more Type 076s being procured though I don't recall exactly how many.

Bltizo said:

I know, I'm just further emphasizing that it almost certainly is just some random's guess.


The part of my reply directed at you was to ask why your previous post seemed to express disappointment at the OP's claims/guesses, because if they were real they would be very formidable and quite impressive.

Click to expand...

Ah wait a minute, an additional 2x Type 003 would be built I'm sorry for some reason I counted the one being constructed now as part of those figures. Though that theoretically delays the Type 004 quite a bit more than I even expected I would at least hope those other 2x Type 003 would be built at the same time.

Again assuming it's true, which I know now is highly unlikely.

Intrepid said:

I currently don't know of any valid evidence whether 003 will remain a loner or whether a sister ship will be built.

Click to expand...

It would be quite odd if PLAN just builds a single Type-003 vessel, since they tend to build class of ships in pairs (or slightly more) before they settle on a design they like which they then churn out more numbers. I consider the Type-001 and Type-002 as more less a single class; STOBAR class ships.

sinophilia said:

The reason is because I recall seeing another prediction made that was posted here, which was held in higher esteem by a lot of members, and it was similar to this one but excluded estimates on carriers. So assuming that one was correct I assumed there was a possibility this one could be. Not like I gave it more than a 50/50 chance, but assuming it was true I'd have been disappointed at the thought that another Type 003 will be built despite not seeing any evidence of its construction, which could mean it could be built only when this one was launched and if that's true and they are not going to be built in tandem then that just adds more delays to the eventual launching of the nuclear powered carrier.

I believe that the other prediction also had more Type 076s being procured though I don't recall exactly how many.

Click to expand...

If you're talking about pop3's post, there were some omissions from his prediction... that were almost definitely deliberate.

He didn't include the number of carriers to be procured, in fact I don't think he mentioned them at all.
He also didn't talk about the number of 076s to be procured, he only talked about how 076 development was still ongoing -- you might be misremembering his statements about 075s (which he said the PLAN would pursue a total of 8 of).


So no, if anything, this guess from this random OP,is far more specific and is also more ambitious than what pop3 revealed.




As for the nuclear carrier, I think you have things back to front a little bit. Everyone knows the PLAN wants a nuclear carrier to be the final form of the large deck carrier they will procure.
But the wait is for the technology and subsystems for it to mature. The PLAN won't put money down for the first nuclear carrier until all of that is sufficiently mature.
However many conventional CATOBARs they buy will depend on the maturity of relevant CVN technologies, not the other way around.


As to whether 003s will be produced in tandem at two shipyards simultaneously, my personal view is:
1. If only one more additional 003 is procured, it could be built at either JN or DL (but I think JN is more likely)
2. If two or more additional 003s is procured, I expect JN and DL to each build one, I would be doubtful if JN was expected to build another two entire 003s on top of the one they're building now, especially given China has gone all this way to demonstrate two shipyards capable of carrier construction

But at this stage we have no idea what the PLAN's aims are after the first 003 we see coming together.

Bltizo said:

He also didn't talk about the number of 076s to be procured, he only talked about how 076 development was still ongoing -- you might be misremembering his statements about 075s (which he said the PLAN would pursue a total of 8 of).

Click to expand...

Ahh good point, I believe you are correct. I don't even recall any #s for Type 076 but for some reason I assumed there would be at least 4 iirc. I guess we have been so spoiled in the last decade that I subconsciously expected China to churn out 2 Type 076 per year or some such nonsense. I still do hope we can expect >1 to be ordered in that timeframe, even if only one is launched.

As for your comments on nuclear carrier development, I certainly understand that the PLAN won't just start building before all the major technologies have matured, but I can't know when that time period is. Not sure if anyone here knows, but I definitely don't so all I can do is assume that the more Type 003s are produced the higher the expectation is that the systems won't mature 'any month now'. Not that I'm being literal and was hoping for it to happen in 2021, but the more non-nuclear ships are built, the more guaranteed added time must be allotted to the eventual launching.

sinophilia said:

Ahh good point, I believe you are correct. I don't even recall any #s for Type 076 but for some reason I assumed there would be at least 4 iirc. I guess we have been so spoiled in the last decade that I subconsciously expected China to churn out 2 Type 076 per year or some such nonsense. I still do hope we can expect >1 to be ordered in that timeframe, even if only one is launched.

As for your comments on nuclear carrier development, I certainly understand that the PLAN won't just start building before all the major technologies have matured, but I can't know when that time period is. Not sure if anyone here knows, but I definitely don't so all I can do is assume that the more Type 003s are produced the higher the expectation is that the systems won't mature 'any month now'. Not that I'm being literal and was hoping for it to happen in 2021, but the more non-nuclear ships are built, the more guaranteed added time must be allotted to the eventual launching.

Click to expand...

FWIW, I personally think that at this stage even in the most accelerated timescale, the first CVN might, might be launched before 2030, but even that is not guaranteed. Subject to revision of course as new information emerges over time.

I'm not sure what your own expectations for the emergence of the first CVN was...


And no, 076 is very much a new concept warship so it's not something we will see very quickly, and the leaks we had last year were truly quite astonishing in terms of how much information we received given how relatively early the ship was in its development cycle. I wouldn't expect the first 076 to enter service this half of the decade.

Kich said:

I consider the Type-001 and Type-002 as more less a single class; STOBAR class ships.

Click to expand...

002 was laid down long after 001 was comissioned, and pretty clearly used lessons learned in the construction and operation of 001 to improve and modify the design.

Look at the changes made on the island, I expect the internals underwent big changes as well. At most you could call them sub-classes.