lcloo
Captain
I think the future number of Chinese navy ships depends very much on China's defence doctrine and perceived threat to China from the seaward sides.
Thus rather than keeping on building ships at current rates or at a slightly lower rates than we are seeing today, I am expecting the building rate to slow down considerably after a few years from now. One obvious reason is that before the current spike in ship building, most of PLAN ships were out-dated type 051 DDGs and type 053 FFGs that were needed to be replaced urgently.
Thus after all these obsolete ships have been replaced, and also after all needed escorts and auxiliary support ships for current and future aircraft carriers have been built, the future naval ship buildings rates will be basically based on replacing ships that are retiring from active service. This is the expected scenario if the current external threat does not escalate.
Having 50 to 60 DDGs and 60 to 80 FFGs is more than sufficient, unless a global scale war is expected to be unavoidable, or China decided to become a global policeman.
Thus rather than keeping on building ships at current rates or at a slightly lower rates than we are seeing today, I am expecting the building rate to slow down considerably after a few years from now. One obvious reason is that before the current spike in ship building, most of PLAN ships were out-dated type 051 DDGs and type 053 FFGs that were needed to be replaced urgently.
Thus after all these obsolete ships have been replaced, and also after all needed escorts and auxiliary support ships for current and future aircraft carriers have been built, the future naval ship buildings rates will be basically based on replacing ships that are retiring from active service. This is the expected scenario if the current external threat does not escalate.
Having 50 to 60 DDGs and 60 to 80 FFGs is more than sufficient, unless a global scale war is expected to be unavoidable, or China decided to become a global policeman.
Last edited: