The point to be made here isn't that one's perception is 'better' than the other's. Rather, rumors need to be evaluated in context; Outlandish rumors are conventionally given less consideration than conservative ones - as it should be. What makes 'big shrimps' like fzgfzy so reliable, despite their lack of inside connection, is that they make the right guesses at the right times.
By that same logic, rumors from people like Lucas Han should be taken with a grain of salt. Case in point: How believable is a nuclear-powered 003? Possible, but not very.
Given your analytical ability, you too should be able to make the right guesses at the right times.
Yes, that is what I imagined Interstellar was probably trying to say. I was just a little confused as to his word choice ("ability of perception" and "outreached").
As for the role of online rumours, I believe for the likes of us they are central. Not every rumour should be taken seriously and not certainly not every individual who claims to have insider information should be taken seriously either.
However, we still need online rumours to have some material to work with. Regardless of how good our own analytical abilities or logic may be, we cannot merely extrapolate things from nothing. It's like prospecting for gold -- you can be as skilled or as well equipped as you want, but you still need some good land to find the gold in the dirt in the first place. One cannot prospect thin air for gold.
And I certainly agree that rumours need to be evaluated in context of course, and outlandish ones need to be dismissed. But in this day and age what is outlandish and what is realistic? 10 years ago I would've laughed the idea of the PLAN having a destroyer like 055 out of the room, let alone the prospect of 4 such ships being launched within the space of 1 year.
Of course this isn't to say I believe 003 will be nuclear powered.
But it does mean I think the "initial" 3 075 order, the idea of a larger 075 variant, and the prospects of a large 055 production run (as well as 052D/E production run) aren't too crazy.
Compiling something is oftentimes a process of sifting the rumors these "big shrimps" heard of. Occasionally, I comment to some of them in private and they asked me for my opinion as well. I don't mean to offense but it is kind of weird finding out people take the rumors they digested seriously.
I see what you mean.
I think rumours being taken "seriously" is all relative. There are rumours, and then there are rumours. Rumours from some people who have been open and willing to make some predictions in the past and who had been demonstrated correct will naturally be given more credibility.
Meaning if those people repeat rumours in the future, the fact that they made some correct predictions in the past means they will be taken seriously in the future as well.
Also, the fact that people like fzgfzy are willing to simply put out numbers is also very attractive to us even if they may be rumours. For example, saying that we'll see 12 055s and that it is a "small number" or saying we can expect 3 075s, and that a larger successor is under development etc.
That kind of stuff is all straightforward and not very "cryptic".
Even if those predictions do not end up perfectly true in time, we need something to start and work with if we want to even try to do an educated guess for say, what the PLAN looks like in 2030 (11 years away). It's the equivalent of being in the year 2009 and guessing what the PLAN would look like in 2020/next year! Obviously there will be inaccuracies but efforts should be made nonetheless, and people like fzgfzy are the best we have so far.
But if you have alternative opinions about things like production rate/orders I'm very happy to see them.
Having high perception is somehow even prior to being "informed" from my point of view.
I don't quite understand what you mean here, specifically I don't know what "high perception" and "informed" means in this context.
