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latenlazy

Brigadier
Because of:
A: the "compromises" on one platform (carrier based manned fighter) I believe may not be substantial
B: the purpose of a stealthy strike UCAV and a 5th generation manned fighter capable of carrying JSM class weapons do not fill the same niche and can be very complementary to one another.
A) A bigger payload competes with both structural strengthening and range requirements for weight. This is a tough balance to strike.

B) Perhaps. But if a stealthy strike UCAV can handle the same payload, that is an overlap of niches. It can simply take over the role. Ferrying a standoff weapon into range is a waste of a fighter frame. It makes more sense for the fighter to play complement to the UCAV carrying the stand off weapon rather than vice versa. Putting a stand off payload in the UCAV doesn't compromise it and it lets you maximize the mission flexibility of the fighter.

I would prefer the former to be honest, because for the strike role I believe the RCS, and the adverse effects on kinematics will be worst for your second proposal rather than the first.
The kinematic and RCS impact is only temporary on the second proposal.


The first option will obviously limit the kinematics of the aircraft in A2A domains to a degree, and will result in a worse RCS compared to a "clean" second option, but I expect the naval stealth fighter to have strike as one of its primary missions rather than a secondary mission.
I don't think it makes much sense, doctrinally, for the PLAN to prioritize strike at the cost of some degree of A2A capability if they are also developing a dedicated strike UCAV. If the intention is to develop such a UCAV, then you won't need a manned stealth fighter to have larger payloads to conduct deep penetration strikes because the UCAV would be a better fit for such a role, and deep penetration strikes on a clean stealth configuration would be the primary reason you'd want a bigger weapons bay.

Furthermore, I'm not sure having a manned stealth fighter that compromises A2A capabilities for strike capabilities fits with what we can guess about China's intended carrier doctrine going forth. A2A, I'd argue, is more important for the PLAN's carrier doctrine, given their likely mission profiles and lack of PLAAF mission support when projecting power to distant geographies, than it is for the USN's carrier doctrine.

Meaning in terms of overall adverse effect on stealth and kinematics over the primary missions which the naval fighter will be expected to conduct, I expect the first option to have overall less adverse effect than the second option, simply because I expect the fighter to conduct strike missions fairly frequently as part of its mission requirements.
The first option forces you to live with a compromise between strike and A2A kinematics in perpetuity. The second option lets you convert between strike and A2A kinematics, and recover your A2A kinematic abilities the moment you've unloaded your strike package. Kinematic penalties aren't a big deal for strike missions, but they adversely affect A2A capabilities. Stealth may be a trickier consideration for the second option, but if we're talking about a design with a cleaner exterior than the first option the penalty from carrying an external package that's been shaped to minimize RCS contributions may not be much worse than a chunkier airframe.

Even if a future manned naval stealth fighter conducted strike missions fairly frequently, not all or even most of those missions will require larger payload capacity in combination with a clean stealthy exterior, especially if there will be other dedicated platforms that perform strike roles.

Of course, this is also assuming that we are comparing the "adverse" stealth and kinematic effect on the first option to be similar in degree to the transition between X-35 and F-35. That is to say, it won't suddenly mean that a naval large belly variant of J-20 will suddenly be incapable of supercruise if the land based version is capable of it.
As I said, I think we differ in terms of our opinion of how much the adverse effect on stealth and kinematics are.

I think maybe you're underestimating the weight and airframe penalties involved with trying to fit in a larger weapons bay in a design that will already be weight challenged by range and carrier TOL requirements. These requirements are all competing for very limited real estate. If T:W suffers too much, it could very well mean a supercruise capable A2A design loses the ability to supercruise. Remember, again, China's current design bottleneck is the engines, which will put more pressure on keeping weight down, since adding thrust is not likely to be the viable get out of jail card it has proven to be for the JSF.


Again, that's assuming F-35's development troubles are due to the modifications of F-35's performance requirements from X-35, rather than other program management factors.

think if they had not forced a B variant into the F-35 so early, and if they had modified the procurement policy and if they had not porkbarrel'd the F-35, then I think the program would be much more successful.


I think the F-35's capabilities even on an individual aircraft basis are very great and couple that with all the variants they have and the overall number they will produce and couple that with the multiplicative effect of datalinking F-35s together with shared upgrades... I feel like the F-35 won't just be a "capable fighter" but will likely be THE most capable fighter type of its time, moreso than F-22, J-20 or Su-57 or others.

The X-35 that flew was optimized for an A2A role. The program delays and cost overruns that followed weren't a consequence of bad procurement, but a consequence of trying to engineer too many requirements into a single airframe. Sure, if you take out the B variant those problems may have been less severe, but even then with the F-35C we're talking about a product that the USN seems to tacitly consider a compromised solution. It's telling that the USN has already decided it won't be teaming up with the USAF again for a 6th gen fighter, and I think that speaks volumes about what they feel like they got from the JSF.
 
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
A) A bigger payload competes with both structural strengthening and range requirements for weight. This is a tough balance to strike.

B) Perhaps. But if a stealthy strike UCAV can handle the same payload, that is an overlap of niches. It can simply take over the role. Ferrying a standoff weapon into range is a waste of a fighter frame. It makes more sense for the fighter to play complement to the UCAV carrying the stand off weapon rather than vice versa. Putting a stand off payload in the UCAV doesn't compromise it and it lets you maximize the mission flexibility of the fighter.

A) I don't disagree with that.

B) Yes, but that is assuming there are missions and targets where you are confident sending UCAVs in will be sufficient against the countermeasures that will likely be deployed to exploit your UCAV's unmanned nature. OTOH manned fighters will always be manned. That is to say, there are certain missions where UCAVs will be able to succeed, but against a sufficiently capable foe whose countermeasures will almost definitely first line include interfering with your UCAV's datalinks and controls, I expect manned fighters to be the first line of attack.



The kinematic and RCS impact is only temporary on the second proposal.

Yet the degree of kinematic impairment and RCS impact during the strike mission will be present for at least the ingress part of the mission.

I believe that my proposal results in a much reduced degree of kinematic impairment and RCS impact, but only in a permanent way, whereas your proposal I think will result in a much higher degree of kinematic impairment and increased RCS during the ingress/pre-launch part of the strike mission and compromising the aircraft's ability to conduct the actual strike mission to begin with.


I don't think it makes much sense, doctrinally, for the PLAN to prioritize strike at the cost of some degree of A2A capability if they are also developing a dedicated strike UCAV. If the intention is to develop such a UCAV, then you won't need a manned stealth fighter to have larger payloads to conduct deep penetration strikes because the UCAV would be a better fit for such a role, and deep penetration strikes on a clean stealth configuration would be the primary reason you'd want a bigger weapons bay.

See above.

And again, the issue of how long it would take for a mature UCAV strike capability even against medium tier opponents to emerge versus that of a manned fighter is a topic we've already touched on.


Furthermore, I'm not sure having a manned stealth fighter that compromises A2A capabilities for strike capabilities fits with what we can guess about China's intended carrier doctrine going forth. A2A, I'd argue, is more important for the PLAN's carrier doctrine, given their likely mission profiles and lack of PLAAF mission support when projecting power to distant geographies, than it is for the USN's carrier doctrine.

I believe A2A capabilities in the very future (and indeed the present already) will be less dependent on kinematics and outright maneuvrability but rather having range, the ability to deploy various networked payloads, having highly networked platforms, and stealth and speed.

I believe my proposal will give the aircraft a much significantly enhanced A2G capability while minimally inhibiting the important aspects necessary for its A2A role.



The first option forces you to live with a compromise between strike and A2A kinematics in perpetuity. The second option lets you convert between strike and A2A kinematics, and recover your A2A kinematic abilities the moment you've unloaded your strike package. Kinematic penalties aren't a big deal for strike missions, but they adversely affect A2A capabilities. Stealth may be a trickier consideration for the second option, but if we're talking about a design with a cleaner exterior than the first option the penalty from carrying an external package that's been shaped to minimize RCS contributions may not be much worse than a chunkier airframe.

Let's put it this way, if there is a way for your second option using stealthy weapon pods to result in a similar degree of success for a strike mission compared to the first option, then I would support your idea.

However, I am doubtful as to its adverse impact on RCS and much significant drag versus my first option, and therefore I believe the minimally adverse impact on kinematics and stealth of my first proposal and especially the reducing relevance of kinematic maneuvrability in A2A combat, makes me believe more in my own proposal.



Even if a future manned naval stealth fighter conducted strike missions fairly frequently, not all or even most of those missions will require larger payload capacity in combination with a clean stealthy exterior, especially if there will be other dedicated platforms that perform strike roles.

For the sort of foes that the Chinese Navy will want to likely deal with, I think conducting strike missions in a clean stealthy exterior is quite necessary...



I think maybe you're underestimating the weight and airframe penalties involved with trying to fit in a larger weapons bay in a design that will already be weight challenged by range and carrier TOL requirements. These requirements are all competing for very limited real estate. If T:W suffers too much, it could very well mean a supercruise capable A2A design loses the ability to supercruise. Remember, again, China's current design bottleneck is the engines, which will put more pressure on keeping weight down, since adding thrust is not likely to be the viable get out of jail card it has proven to be for the JSF.

Well my position is assuming that by then the Chinese Navy will have naval WS-15 engines that are sufficient to power land based J-20s and that naval J-20s would still have the ability to supercruise.

If my proposal results in an inability to supercruise then I would consider perhaps dropping it, but if supercruise is still retained (even if it is slightly reduced) and if maneuvrability (things like ITR) are adversely reduced, I would still go with it.



The X-35 that flew was optimized for an A2A role. The program delays and cost overruns that followed weren't a consequence of bad procurement, but a consequence of trying to engineer too many requirements into a single airframe. Sure, if you take out the B variant those problems may have been less severe, but even then with the F-35C we're talking about a product that the USN seems to tacitly consider a compromised solution. It's telling that the USN has already decided it won't be teaming up with the USAF again for a 6th gen fighter, and I think that speaks volumes about what they feel like they got from the JSF.

I disagree, I think for all the design and performance issues that F-35 has had, it is the way the program was managed which is the much more significant reason for its state rather than the design of the aircraft themselves.
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
I think a long range stealth A2A fighter providing escort for a long range stealth A2S bomber is the way to go. Stealth requirement makes it difficult to have both good payload and kinematics.
 
Aug 25, 2017
LOL my favorite topic:
DIEYBLCW0AAUg0E.jpg

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AShBM DF-21D
so ... at

Defense Ministry's Regular Press Conference on August 31
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Question: A couple of days ago, the U.S. conducted a test of sea-based anti-missile interception. A “Standard Missile-6” intercepted a target at sea successfully. Some scholars analyzed that the simulated missile target of the U.S.’ anti-missile interception test is China’s DF-21D missile. How would you comment on this? ...

Answer:
On your first question, the issue of missile defense is related to the global strategic stability. Countries, especially the world's major countries, should carefully deal with the issue of missile defense by starting from maintaining global strategic stability and enhancing strategic mutual trust among countries, and avoid putting its own security interests on top of other countries. ...
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Aug 25, 2017

so ... at

Defense Ministry's Regular Press Conference on August 31
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Question: A couple of days ago, the U.S. conducted a test of sea-based anti-missile interception. A “Standard Missile-6” intercepted a target at sea successfully. Some scholars analyzed that the simulated missile target of the U.S.’ anti-missile interception test is China’s DF-21D missile. How would you comment on this? ...

Answer:
On your first question, the issue of missile defense is related to the global strategic stability. Countries, especially the world's major countries, should carefully deal with the issue of missile defense by starting from maintaining global strategic stability and enhancing strategic mutual trust among countries, and avoid putting its own security interests on top of other countries. ...
If SM-6 can also intercept a DF-21D then the ASBM's effectiveness will be significantly diminished, as many more ships will carry SM-6 than will carry SM-3, and will carry them in larger numbers as well.
 

SamuraiBlue

Captain
If SM-6 can also intercept a DF-21D then the ASBM's effectiveness will be significantly diminished, as many more ships will carry SM-6 than will carry SM-3, and will carry them in larger numbers as well.
I doubt there was any effectiveness of ASBM in the first place. PRC never had shown any tests of how an ASBM would acquire maintain and hit a moving target.
 

Hyperwarp

Captain
If SM-6 can also intercept a DF-21D then the ASBM's effectiveness will be significantly diminished, as many more ships will carry SM-6 than will carry SM-3, and will carry them in larger numbers as well.

No surprises there. The US was not going to sit idle. Countermeasures were inevitable. China will have to make faster HGV based ASBM.

Off-course Interceptors like SM-6 are only the last line of defence (until rail-guns are viable). ASBM have a long kill chain that can be disrupted before it gets to that.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
If SM-6 can also intercept a DF-21D then the ASBM's effectiveness will be significantly diminished, as many more ships will carry SM-6 than will carry SM-3, and will carry them in larger numbers as well.

I doubt there was any effectiveness of ASBM in the first place. PRC never had shown any tests of how an ASBM would acquire maintain and hit a moving target.

A weapons system like the DF-21D, disregarding its inherent effectiveness for a moment, relies on a terminally-maneuvering RV, implying that the best chances of intercepting it would be during its midcourse stage of flight. SM-6, however, has a maximum intercept altitude of roughly 40 km, which limits the selection of potential targets (for midcourse interception) to only tactical BMs which have a comparable apogee. Granted, the SM-6 may go for a terminal intercept, but the probability of a successful shootdown takes a nosedive. The SM-3, with a max intercept altitude exceeding 200 km, would be the ideal ABM of choice against threats like the DF-21D.

Before the SM-3/6 are dispensed against a notional DF-21D, I would fully expect a potential opponent to take out key links in the "kill chain" involving the neutralization of Yaogan-series satellites, long-range URAVs, land-based OTH radars, and finally strikes on mobile DF-21D launchers should the situation permit such actions.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
The vulnerability of other segments in the ASBM kill chain is *precisely* why we see so many alternative experimental approaches to ASBM delivery methods. I suspect we're far from seeing the last response from China in this game of countermoves.
 
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