PLA missile defense system

kwiekie said:

Rhino,
I know you believe in nuclear deterrence but look at follow USAF illustration, imagine what you can do in a battlefield with couple of aircraft in the air with laser, you can destroy every cruise missile, ballistic missile, etc... that the enemy launched. For this kind capabilities we need to test and develop support technology like tracking, detection, space sensor, etc...

Like i say before, nuclear weapon is not a weapon that you can use, so why investing lots of your resource in something that you never will use. In other hand ABM capabilities is also very useful in conventional war and don't forget, nuclear weapon is also very dangerous even we don't use like nuclear waste, accidents, etc...

imho Nuclear deterrence is more useful for weak army's/country's and PLA is not really weak anymore.

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Lets forget about the nuclear stuff (although I still believe in a larger arsenal, I would not bring up this issue again, in case it become a war in this forum, so I will keep my opinion to myself).

But I still wanted to say, what I believe more in is a greater offensive capability. Something made up of of more destroyers, cruisers, sub (nuclear sub and conventional sub) and carriers. A more powerful airforce with modern bombers, fighters and other fix and rotary wing aircrafts.

Yes, defending the motherland is important, but do we actually wanted to defend the motherland in the motherland? We can bring the war out of mainland and spare our people some unnecesary pain and agony.

My arguement is that ABM is not a very matured technology, even now, and at present moment lasers, high energy weaponries and stuffs are a thing of the future. It is more frictional and actually real (as far as technology goes) at present moment, but I am not saying that it cannot be done just not now.

My argument now is why do we wanted to waste precious resources in these area instead of building a more powerful (much more powerful) navy and airforce at a much quicker pace. This would then be a deterrence that is more solid in foundation. This is something that could really stop people from taking the Chinese for granted, and punches us whenever they feel like it.

The ABM now (seriously) is not very useful and as it seemed... it is like trying to fight the war in China mainland again. When Mao Zedong ordered the developement of the NMD system... I believe he was trying to shield China mainland from missiles from the US and Russia.

However like I say before, even if the ABM/NMD could shield china from 100 missiles, what happen if there is 101 missiles launched?

So the main thing now is to prevent people from launching that 101 missiles. And the only way to do it... is to launch the offensive first. But with China's current fleet and air capability, I seriously doubt they could launch the offensive in some further away nations.

They need power projection (much, much more) and that is when the navy came in.

Future war, as I see it, when fought on Chinese land, even if the war is short but high in intensity, and no matter how the chinese troops fare... it is still China and her people that will suffer.

thus the war as I see it, should not be fought on Chinese land... but from the country that is going to initiate it.

pla101prc said:

8000? if you take off a 0 maybe.

you should review what Deng said, modern warfare will be limited in scale but intense in the use of technology, so nukes wouldnt top my chart in the weapons that China needs the most in the next 10 years.

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In 2000/2001 a Singapore U study ["hypothesized"] that China's inventory is in the neighborhood of something like 2300 plus warheads. I would classify that an ["unbiased"] postulation of what China's stockpile could potentially be hoovering around.

China processes her weapon grade fuels not from spent fuels from power stations like Iran and North Korea does but from covert processing facilities dedicated specifically to weapon applications. I've seen a pic published in China.com's military page suggesting that the pic is a "declassified" uranium processing center from the 60's (where the first test was developed), the scene looked no different from your everyday rural Chinese countryside.

The facility was so secretive that not even family members of the engineers and scientist who worked in it know anything about it. Whenever the engineers and scientists goes to work, which is weeks, in some cases months on ends, they would tell their family they're going out of province on some special assignments. All were in their 20's and 30's the article said. This should give us a good indication of the secrecy behind China's nuke R&D from the 60's and also what it might be like today.

'
Also, based on the gesture given by this retired Chinese General that if China was hit that hundreds of cities of an opponent can also expect to be hit as well in a retaliatory counter measure; and, providing that 10% of this retaliatory counter measure elements make it past an opponent's defenses, we would be looking at an inventory of anywhere between 1000 to 2000 plus units, and the means to deliver it too.

This General's rehtoric was from 2004; hence, given how our economic wonder had enabled us to pump out surprises after surprise and shock and awe after shock and awe; given the assets Beijing had intentionally displayed in China's recent national day parade; also, given the massive border we have with states that are hostile to us; I would have to speculate that that number we have have to be quite substantial.

My speculation is that that number would be closure to the 3000 mark today, which is just about right my opinion. "I also speculate that, to date, that we may have as many as 5 Jin's altogether and that the long chatters about 16 or 24 tube 096 shown in model forms have already been launched (at least one anyway) and that it is on sea trial stages which explains the USS Impeccable and its sister ship, whatever name it go by, are so active" in the South and East China Sea...

Now, that's only my own personal 2 cents worth. I'm not trying to pump any bull here. You guys think what you will.

rhino123 said:

Future war, as I see it, when fought on Chinese land, even if the war is short but high in intensity, and no matter how the chinese troops fare... it is still China and her people that will suffer.

thus the war as I see it, should not be fought on Chinese land... but from the country that is going to initiate it.

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I think we're quite safe in that respect, rhino. My speculation is "if there will ever be any hostility between any of the major nuke powers (to include the Indians in this roster this time around)", the conflicts won't be in the home turfs of any of these countries (sino-Indian border excluded this list); I envision any/all such conflict and/or hostilities will instead be fought in a third party nation. I postulate Africa, Middle East, to a lesser extent, maybe even Central & South America, Indonesia and the Myanmar Thai pan handle, Bagladesh might to be the centers of these conflicts... Worry not however my friend, Chinese Singapore, even Malaysia will be not be in harm's way because the two are not as dumb as to get their feet wet in international; affairs as war.

Harley-One said:

In 2000/2001 a Singapore U study ["hypothesized"] that China's inventory is in the neighborhood of something like 2300 plus warheads. I would classify that an ["unbiased"] postulation of what China's stockpile could potentially be hoovering around.

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Can you show us a link that there is a Singapore U study of that. The closest thing I find is this:



And the author quote a student from Singapore University (by the name of Yang Zheng. And from that name, we can somehow deduce that she is a Mainland Chinese studying in Singapore. Plus that study is done in 1996.

However since it is actually written by some student, I seriously doubt its validity, I mean, how in the world would a student from a college actually get to know the actual number of the nuclear stock in China when it is suppose to be top secret? And from Harley's fine explanation, the possessing of the nuclear weaponry are so secretive that no one would know.

Harley-One said:

China processes her weapon grade fuels not from spent fuels from power stations like Iran and North Korea does but from covert processing facilities dedicated specifically to weapon applications. I've seen a pic published in China.com's military page suggesting that the pic is a "declassified" uranium processing center from the 60's (where the first test was developed), the scene looked no different from your everyday rural Chinese countryside.

The facility was so secretive that not even family members of the engineers and scientist who worked in it know anything about it. Whenever the engineers and scientists goes to work, which is weeks, in some cases months on ends, they would tell their family they're going out of province on some special assignments. All were in their 20's and 30's the article said. This should give us a good indication of the secrecy behind China's nuke R&D from the 60's and also what it might be like today.

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The abovementioned paragraph is Harley's fine explanation. And if everything is done in such secretive manner... how in the world would a student get to know anything. Maybe we should be looking more into Singapore U... they could have manage to train some top intelligence Agents.

Harley-One said:

Also, based on the gesture given by this retired Chinese General that if China was hit that hundreds of cities of an opponent can also expect to be hit as well in a retaliatory counter measure; and, providing that 10% of this retaliatory counter measure elements make it past an opponent's defenses, we would be looking at an inventory of anywhere between 1000 to 2000 plus units, and the means to deliver it too.

This General's rehtoric was from 2004; hence, given how our economic wonder had enabled us to pump out surprises after surprise and shock and awe after shock and awe; given the assets Beijing had intentionally displayed in China's recent national day parade; also, given the massive border we have with states that are hostile to us; I would have to speculate that that number we have have to be quite substantial.

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All from the words of a retired Chinese General. Make me wonder, is he suppose to be giving out these speech? Is he authorised to do it or not, or just a slip of the tongue? If the official chinese government didn't even bother to give out the numbers, how could we actually trust an old retired general with giving out the numbers that seemed... somewhat extraordinary.

Harley-One said:

My speculation is that that number would be closure to the 3000 mark today, which is just about right my opinion. "I also speculate that, to date, that we may have as many as 5 Jin's altogether and that the long chatters about 16 or 24 tube 096 shown in model forms have already been launched (at least one anyway) and that it is on sea trial stages which explains the USS Impeccable and its sister ship, whatever name it go by, are so active" in the South and East China Sea...

Now, that's only my own personal 2 cents worth. I'm not trying to pump any bull here. You guys think what you will.

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I mean China is doing very well in recent decades... but she is starting from quite a bottom line after WWII... then civil war and only in 1949. And I believe China only successfully tested out the atomic bomb somewhere in the 60s.

The student claimed that China had something like 2300 plus nuclear arsenal in 1996... which is about 30odd years after first successful test of the nuclear. And mind you, China is not that rich in the 60s down to the 80s, and was pretty torn up in the 70s (I think) after the cultural revolution.

So I am looking at around 10+ years of building up a stock that is 2300 plus. Don't mind me saying that... it is quite difficult even with China.

Finally, I don't doubt your crediability and your claims... but I just kind of find what you have said... A bit hard to achieve.

Plus I believe a lot of us in this forum is also quite interested in the picture that you said you have showing a "declassified"
uranium processing center. Mine if you post it here in the forum, to share with us?

kwiekie said:

Rhino,
I know you believe in nuclear deterrence but look at follow USAF illustration, imagine what you can do in a battlefield with couple of aircraft in the air with laser, you can destroy every cruise missile, ballistic missile, etc... that the enemy launched. For this kind capabilities we need to test and develop support technology like tracking, detection, space sensor, etc...

Like i say before, nuclear weapon is not a weapon that you can use, so why investing lots of your resource in something that you never will use. In other hand ABM capabilities is also very useful in conventional war and don't forget, nuclear weapon is also very dangerous even we don't use like nuclear waste, accidents, etc...

imho Nuclear deterrence is more useful for weak army's/country's and PLA is not really weak anymore.

[qimg]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/USAF_Airborne_laser.jpg[/qimg]

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Technology is King!

rhino123 said:

Can you show us a link that there is a Singapore U study of that. The closest thing I find is this:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And the author quote a student from Singapore University (by the name of Yang Zheng. And from that name, we can somehow deduce that she is a Mainland Chinese studying in Singapore. Plus that study is done in 1996.

However since it is actually written by some student, I seriously doubt its validity, I mean, how in the world would a student from a college actually get to know the actual number of the nuclear stock in China when it is suppose to be top secret? And from Harley's fine explanation, the possessing of the nuclear weaponry are so secretive that no one would know.




The abovementioned paragraph is Harley's fine explanation. And if everything is done in such secretive manner... how in the world would a student get to know anything. Maybe we should be looking more into Singapore U... they could have manage to train some top intelligence Agents.



All from the words of a retired Chinese General. Make me wonder, is he suppose to be giving out these speech? Is he authorised to do it or not, or just a slip of the tongue? If the official chinese government didn't even bother to give out the numbers, how could we actually trust an old retired general with giving out the numbers that seemed... somewhat extraordinary.

My speculation is that that number would be closure to the 3000 mark today, which is just about right my opinion. "I also speculate that, to date, that we may have as many as 5 Jin's altogether and that the long chatters about 16 or 24 tube 096 shown in model forms have already been launched (at least one anyway) and that it is on sea trial stages which explains the USS Impeccable and its sister ship, whatever name it go by, are so active" in the South and East China Sea...

Now, that's only my own personal 2 cents worth. I'm not trying to pump any bull here. You guys think what you will.

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I used to have an archive of many links I find interesting and kept it in the form of a bookmark backup in case my PC crushes on me. I tried clicking on it again not too long ago just for reference as per this instance, but it was not found. I guess the link had been recycled. It's been 5 years you know.

Anyway, the following is where the link was:

中国核武器数量: 2350颗核弹.比西方估计多8倍！zt


You might want to look the topic up on your spare time. I'm swamp between C'Defense, C'Daily, other Chinese sites, the demands demanded of me by the Mrs. to pay more attention to her than to people in the web , and, of course my pastime which is the local casinos my neck of woods...

And O'h, the remark: it not directed at you ... It's merely just a figure of speech so don't get all fired up!!!


Rhino, the CIA didn't even know the existence of the 040 Yuan class submarine until it was intentionally made visible to google earth. Same goes for the 094 Jin. But, these two boats had been rumored and chattered about in Chinese nets ever since '98. The 093/094 project was even authenticated in 2002 by a Chinese kid (Yes, just a kid) in one of the Chinese forum (once free but now paid membership "EIN News") who claimed an Uncle of his works on the project but everyone was saying he was full of it. And, when the 093/094 wasn't even yet declassified, already rumor of an 095/096 was going on it the www. The J-10 was initially thought of as bull craps by Chinese posters on the web until 2004b when it was officially declassified and the the ASAT program had been chattered about going back as far '99 and every one laughed at us Chinese; what I'm tryin g to say is this: never never underestimate Beijing and never never buy what the West wants for you to believe.

rhino123 said:

So instead of letting others launch missiles at you, why don't you launch missiles at them first. And ensure that they are sufficiently covered that they would back down? Isn't that the best deterrence?

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Well, your statement is equivalent of saying "tank armor is useless". Why? You emphasize offense is the best defense. As long as you fire at your enemy first, you don't have to worry about defense. Then my question is "why do you need tank armor then if you have massive firepower"? I think an assumption for your statement is your enemy can't fight back. The reality is even when you have the massive and overwhelming firepower, your enemy WILL fight back. This is evident even in the most lopsided fights. And you WILL get hit. A good defense WILL protect you from those hits, just like a tank armor WILL protect its crew in a fight. The same can also be said of ABM. So China fires missiles at a nation pre-emptively and that ends all things?? In the real world, that won't happen. You open fire on someone. They WILL fight back. If you don't have a protective mechanism in place, you will get hurt more than your enemy.

Also having no ABM prevents you from using the missiles to hit someone. Why? Simply look at the nuke deterrence thingy. The very reason that the nuke deterrence works is that your enemy WILL hit you with their nukes if you hit them with nuke. And there is nothing you can do to stop it. So both sides will get hurt if anyone decides to use nukes. Using the same logic, if you don't have an ABM system, you will be as vulnerable as anyone and your enemy will say "Hey look, don't you even think of using those missiles on us. We will fire our missiles at you if you fire your missiles!" SO what are you going to do? Still fire your missiles and duck? Most likely, you won't be able to use your missiles at well, same as the nuke blackmailing. So your awesome offensive becomes completely useless because you don't have a good defensive mechanism in place.

Yes, it's always cool to say "the best defense is a good offense". But it's always the good defense that wins games...

I don't think an interceptor based ABM is quite cost effective against a first-tiered nuclear power. A single ballistic missile carrying up to a dozen MIRVs would and even more decoys would require dozens of interceptors to be fired to ensure a kill. This is not to say that an ABM does not have other applications, but that it makes more sense to simply build a greater quantity of higher tech ICBMs if one's aim is to achieve deterrence against a first-tier nuclear power.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

I don't think an interceptor based ABM is quite cost effective against a first-tiered nuclear power. A single ballistic missile carrying up to a dozen MIRVs would and even more decoys would require dozens of interceptors to be fired to ensure a kill. This is not to say that an ABM does not have other applications, but that it makes more sense to simply build a greater quantity of higher tech ICBMs if one's aim is to achieve deterrence against a first-tier nuclear power.

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Starwars/ABM/NMD System:

"Starwars" as the term suggests "is not limited to ground based ABM/NMD missiles"... it includes space modules armed with kill vehicles... Many illustrations have been made of the technology in both Chinese medias and in American publications...

This technology is either already covertly being implemented by the Americans (my personal opinion) or blue prints are already all drawn up for it which is why China is adamant that the militarization of space is but inevidable and hence are plunging into the science.

This also explains the reason why the Americans was all finicky about one of China's most recent SZ launches where it was reported that mini satellites was released from one of those SZ modules and also the reason why the West treats SZ-8 as link following which is scheduled to be launched sometimes this year with such huge suspicion:






Then there are laser technology (researches being conducted by US and China for sure but what stages only God knows)... How's about the kill vehicle launch from F-15's (China's version is via H-6H I think) concept, and a number of other ideas.

how many warheads does China have anyway? the other questions that people always talk about but can never answer are such as what is the real range of DF31A (just read an article yesterday that says its 10000km, but ppl pointed out that since the size didnt change it prolly isnt gonna improve that much rom 8000km range) and JL-2 and whether there are nay MIRVed missiles in its inventory.