Scramble is cool and all but it has the same problem as any plaaf watcher has. No way to track older plane reassignment or retirement. basically, just because scramble doesnt mention j10a units or j11a units, it doesnt mean those aren't there. Scramble doesn't mention many because it doesn't know where those planes went. its easy to track new planes and units getting new planes. Plaaf watchers keep reporting on that, provide images etc. But second hand planes being reassigned to some old units is not tracked nearly as well. Not many people care about that so we all lack info on those. Including scramble. Basically, we (and scramble) dont know the exact composition of units with older types and the exact orbat.So today I decided to do some updated Check on the size PLAAF and used Kimi to go through scramble ORBAT to summarize. what it's seeing and the results were actually quite surprising to me at least since I haven't been following things closely.
Here are the fighter jets. The J-10A/B part really surprised me and I double checked on Scramble to verify and it seems to check out. It seems like a chunk of J-10A brigades have been retired (I would have expected something like 8-10 brigades bw J-10A/B if there had been no retirement) and 1 unit even got assigned to 2nd training brigade. Even the size of J-10C contingent wasn't that large. Also, J-11A looks to be completely gone. But J-11B is still all there, it looks like.
At this pace, all the J-10A brigades are going to leave active combat unit by end of next year.
View attachment 171772
I also took a look at H-6 bomber units.
It seems to have gotten something mixed up here because there are 2 regiments each with 8th and 10th division + the one in 36th division.
And there is also the H-6N regiment
and now 2 from H-6J
If we use 24 per regiment for H-6K and 20 per H-6J/N. That's 180 H-6K/J/N in total. I maybe overestimating things a little here.
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sure, but if J-10A or J-11A did get assigned to an active unit (like an older J-7 unit), we should still know. If they do not get mentioned as replacing an older J-7 unit, then they are either going to some low intensive training base or the remaining J-10A brigade got larger or they got stored up or there is some new base created we don't know about.
Sure, quite possible that some J-10A have been handed over to training bases with lots of airframes. It is plausible that even some of the earliest J10A have already been retired. But I wouldn't be too quick to assume most of J10A have been retired. Scramble, for example, still lists three bases/units possibly running J7 or having refubished bases where no new planes have moved in - which is very likely totally outdated info. It also mentions J8F still being operational in some units. Again, likely outdated. Instead of 4 frontline units and 1 training unit that scramble lists for J10A, I wouldn't be surprised if actual totals are closer to 6 frontline and 2 training units, with J7 and J8 airframes (sans recon) gone. But again, we can't possibly know for sure as the info is simply not up to date.
there are basically no J-7 active units based on scramble. I mean it's still listed in some places but then says on the bottom that they are no longer operational or withdrawn. It is possible maybe these units got replaced by J-10A.
So today I decided to do some updated Check on the size PLAAF and used Kimi to go through scramble ORBAT to summarize. what it's seeing and the results were actually quite surprising to me at least since I haven't been following things closely.
Here are the fighter jets. The J-10A/B part really surprised me and I double checked on Scramble to verify and it seems to check out. It seems like a chunk of J-10A brigades have been retired (I would have expected something like 8-10 brigades bw J-10A/B if there had been no retirement) and 1 unit even got assigned to 2nd training brigade. Even the size of J-10C contingent wasn't that large. Also, J-11A looks to be completely gone. But J-11B is still all there, it looks like.
At this pace, all the J-10A brigades are going to leave active combat unit by end of next year.
View attachment 171772
I also took a look at H-6 bomber units.
It seems to have gotten something mixed up here because there are 2 regiments each with 8th and 10th division + the one in 36th division.
And there is also the H-6N regiment
and now 2 from H-6J
If we use 24 per regiment for H-6K and 20 per H-6J/N. That's 180 H-6K/J/N in total. I maybe overestimating things a little here.
its
Sorry for the late reply, but I must admit I am a bit confused and even more have a slightly different Orbat-table:
1. What is "Kimi to go through scramble ORBAT to summarize" since the result has some issues:
2. Based on just a recent update I made for an ongoing project these are the first comments I would like to add:
Kimi is just an AI chatbot that I use to do research. And in this case, read through Scramble Orbat and determine how many of each unit is left so I don't need to tally it up myself.
I was a little surprised by some of the data I saw, for example no more J-11A and much fewer J-10A/B units than I had expected. It's been a while I looked up how many of the 4th gen aircraft they had around. So I essentially had Kimi go through it and then I went through the list myself on specific parts and then looked through @huitong gallery page.
Safe to say that they are not losing sleep over it.
Doubt they are sleeping that well given how hard it is to look away from the trainwreck that’s somehow still piling up cars 3 weeks in.
Hey Deino, could you elaborate on this post and current PLAAF orbat you have? Is the image you posted of your orbat? Is just the red marked part of the text your corrections? Or is everything yours and red parts are just your latest corrections? I guess the absolute lack of any J11A in the list is most conspicuous. Do you mean to suggest that indeed ALL J11A have been retired? And if so, can you guess when has the last one been retired? Or even when has that retirement process started?
Frankly, if the above list is true - that would suggest PLAAF has far fewer planes in service than commonly thought. Like literally 300+ airframes fewer. Or have sizes of units increased substantially across the board, including units using older airframes? So does maybe a J10A unit now has like 40+ airframes? Or a Su-30 unit has 30+ airframes?