【【察话会Au】260226 美国怎么看中国空军军演？以“红旗”度“红剑”罢了-哔哩哔哩】
Latest Guancha talkshow talks about this video. TL: DW version here
1) Information in the video are purely from OSINT so there are limitations like mistaking one of the birds for KJ-200, which is no longer used.
2) Analysis directly assumes that Red Sword is Chinese version of Red Flag which is not entirely true.
3) Much clowning about recent Red Flag exercise where they used F-35B to simulate J-20/J-35. Not only was letting stealth asset coming within 100KM of your AWAC ridiculous but very few AWACs and force multipliers were used in general. Felt like a step down from previous Red Flags.
4) Compares exercises around Taiwan (Justice Mission) and Red Sword. Agrees with foreign analysis that China can’t muster large sorties over long periods of time is cope since China evidently could do it deep inland. Exercises around Dingxin are a lot more complex than aerial component of AR since there is a lot more room to hide and maneuver air defense (Taiwan almost never move them, lazy bastards). Place is so large that they can simulate high end versions of similar SEAD missions from Ukraine War there and see which approaches work. Jokes that they got Xinjiang Zelensky running the AD operations out of a Naan pit.
5) Agrees with foreign assessment that with AVIC’s massive aircraft production capacity, previous claims of only top PLAAF pilots go to Red Sword is plain and simple cope. China could easily sustain 200+ aircraft exercise in Dingxin while simultaneously keeping up pressure in three theater commands. NAFO strategy of wiping out “elite” PLAAF pilots so operations can get easier is just cope.
6) Raises suspicion about USAF maintenance due to the fiasco with Super Bowl F-22. Praises Australians on high readiness but could just be newness of their F-35s.
7) PLAAF is fan of Gulf War era USAF and strives to be a new generation of that ideal Air Force. Commanders and pilots eagerly await US performance in upcoming war against Iran to see if they still “got it” so to speak from not just combat point of view but how logistics, strategy, prep work for contingencies click into place.
8) Reiterates that invading Iran is a decision with major strategic ramifications. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. Depleting weapons capacity during the Operation Epstein Fury will drastically impact readiness in West PAC. They compared it to a hypothetical Ming Emperor who decides to attack Myanmar right before Sarhu.
