As we saw for years, until J-7 frontline fleet reportedly retired for good in 2025 (not counting pilot training units), PLAAF seems to value keeping units alive, keeping the ground crews and air crews trained, even if the planes they serve and fly might be of fairly little use anymore. One could argue that a JH-7A or a J-11A or a J-10A would be much more useful in 2030 than J-7s were in 2020. So one can assume those won't be retired en mass but that they would rather get retired gradually, just as J-7 were, as certain airframes simply age out and become financially inefficient to have their lifespans prolongued.
Active duty USAF has, as per 2025 AFA Almanac, 2387 fighter pilots. and 369 combat system officers (often second seat crew) Also keep in mind this does not include ANG or AFRC.
Active duty USAF, as per same source, had the following tactical combat planes in inventory:
141 A-10 (141 pilot seats)
218 F-15E (436 seats)
8 F-15X (16 seats)
400 F-16C (400 seats)
98 F-16D (196 seats)
165 F-22 (165 seats)
400 F-35A (400 seats)
Total 1430 tactical combat aircraft. 1430 pilot seats plus 324 additional seats.
That would lead to 1.67 fighter pilots per available seat, and 1.139 CSOs per available seat. Though I imagine not all two seater planes always fly with CSOs. Sometimes the second seat is empty or simply another fighter pilot is there. If one would just aggregate those that'd be 1754 seats for 2756 personnel. Leading to 1.57 persons per seat.
Now let's get back to Chinese AF. Assuming various 4th gen planes are flown 150-200 hours per pilot, per year, and assuming similar pilot/CSO to airframe ratios as USAF, that would suggest said airframes fly 235 to 315 hours per year. Though, they likely haven't flown that much since they've been put into service. I imagine that in mid 2000s a lot of those airframes were getting like 200 to 250 hours per year.
Now we can't know airframe life for sure but if one assumes (sort of an educated guess compiled from various announced flanker and fulcrum lifespans, F16 lifespans and so on) the following lifespans:
4000-6000 hours for J-10A
6000-9000 hours for JH-7A
4000-5000 hours for J-11A
5000-8000 hours for J-11B
8000-12000 hours for J-16
6000-8000 hours for J-10B/C
and then use middle values for all, to make it all a bit easier to calculate, also using known or reported production values for each type per year, since their induction into service,
then we should get the following airframe retirement starts, per type:
Around 2023 for J-10A
Around 2034 for JH-7A
Approximately around 2020 for J-11A
Around 2033 for J-11B
Around 2056 for J-16
Around 2044 for J-10B/C
Now, I am not sure if we actually god indication that either J-10A or J-11A have started getting retired. Maybe, maybe not. If someone has such a source, please share.
Su30s from russia came from december 2000 onward, and those are advertised with a max 6000 hours, with life extension modifications. that might result in 2025 or so as the retirement start year.
I think all three early types, 10A/S, 11A and 7A didn't really have a production of over 24 airframes per year.
So we might actually be looking at close to a 75 old planes being retired per year, now after J7s have been retired. 24 each for J10, J11 and Su30. That might dip to just 25 per year by 2030, as all Su30s and all J-11A get retired. Then again pick up at 75 per year around 2033 for a few years as J-11B and JH-7A start get retired. J-10A retirement might last all the way to 2035, after which the retirement total per year might again drop to 50 or so airframes per year.
Of course, all this is very conditional. PLAAF could easily say they don't want the last 100 or so J-10A or JH-7 some years earlier and simply get rid of the type en masse. But I think it broadly illustrates the point and the volume of retirement of old types.
So if influx of new planes is, say, 200 per year, maybe 250 in the near future, then total increase per year for the coming 10 years or so might be 125 to 175 per year.