Does anybody know how close U.S. patrols actually get to the Chinese mainland (or to Hainan)?
I know the USNI claimed an incident occurred "a hundred miles from a Chinese air base" but I have no idea which base it was talking about, or how far inland that air base was. And I assume there have been other confrontations closer to China than the one the USNI was talking about.
That is really a question of how far out China is intercepting these flights to prevent them from getting any closer. I don't think there is any hard data but it seems that these flights are being intercepted further out than they were 20 years ago as Chinese capabilities have improved dramatically. E.g., the
happened just 70 miles off of Hainan.
Without Chinese interception, these flights will be going right up to the edge of Chinese airspace. They likely would even fly over Chinese land (which they used to do with U-2s and SR-71s) if China did not have the capability to shoot them down.