Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

siegecrossbow said:

That is asking too much of Ma, the Great Compromiser of the 21st century.

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In all fairness to Ma, that's mostly been part of a policy to maintain a balancing act of good relations with the mainland, the US and Japan, none of that applies to this situation so Ma should take the gloves off and show both his own people and the world that when Taiwan's citizens are genuinely threatened he won't back down.

Great power politics, especially for a small country, always demands a different set of rules and tone for any government, but when a dispute is with an obviously weaker party who is clearly in the wrong, then you're more or less given free reign to act tough. That's IR.

List of things more important than the recent shooting of the fisherman, according to CNN:

Modern Art in China (with a healthy dose of backhanded political commentary).

Dennis Rodman telling Kim Jong Un to knock it off.

Cheating scandal in South Korea

AND, to top it all off!

Giant Rubber Ducky sinking in Hong Kong.

Go see for yourself here. Personally I don't blame Manilaboy for not finding Western articles on the subject since they are scant to start with.

siegecrossbow said:

List of things more important than the recent shooting of the fisherman, according to CNN:

Modern Art in China (with a healthy dose of backhanded political commentary).

Dennis Rodman telling Kim Jong Un to knock it off.

Cheating scandal in South Korea

AND, to top it all off!

Giant Rubber Ducky sinking in Hong Kong.

Go see for yourself here.

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Personally I don't blame Manilaboy for not finding Western articles on the subject since they are scant to start with.

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Its one of the oldest tricks in the spin book. If you cannot twist or spin a story to say what you want it to say, bury it.

Yes I had noticed this myself, not really as any surprise though.

Maybe more importantly however, is the sense that a second major front of the "Re-pivot to Asia" going belly up as more fault lines open up between supposed allies!

ps shame about the duck and I hope it is just maintenance.

It doesn't look like the current crop of Taiwan sanctions have made much of an impression on the PH:





Meanwhile, the US comes up with this statement that's pretty much a slap in the face for TW:

article said:

“We applaud President Aquino and his government’s expression of regret over this incident [and] the fact that they’ve agreed to an investigation… We’re glad that they’re gonna work these things out as democracies do,” Thomas said on the sidelines of a reception of US agencies for local partners at a new annex facility inside the US Embassy compound in Manila.

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siegecrossbow said:

Giant Rubber Ducky sinking in Hong Kong.

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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will pass by the area tonight on my way to clubbing. Will keep you guys updated on the duck.

solarz said:

It doesn't look like the current crop of Taiwan sanctions have made much of an impression on the PH:

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Meanwhile, the US comes up with this statement that's pretty much a slap in the face for TW:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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I don't see it as a slap in the face. It was the US Ambassador to the Philippines who made that statement. Considering he's stationed there and no doubt being hounded by reporters local there, it's really a diplomatic reply as he said he applauds the Philippines for expression of regret and the fact that they've agreed to an investigation but last check, there's now a tiff on the joint investigation so things are very fluid. In fact, the incident is made bigger by the Philippine's continued flippity-flop which undermines their own agreements and wears thin the patience on the Taiwanese side. News reports indicate the problem over the apology was that the Philippines would offer one version in verbal agreement, then it would be something else on paper. Now, they are playing the formality game by saying the Taiwanese side needs to make a request to send their investigators over which in light of the situation, it's a "REALLY?!?" move. This recent development clearly shows the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing in the Philippines. One dept will say this, then another dept says that.

I wouldn't put a whole lot of weight with the Philippine media, particularly the Global Inquirer. Spend enough time there and you will notice it's like the unofficial propaganda mouthpiece because everything is 99% spun pro-Philippine instead of maintaining a neutral tone.

Taiwan's sanctions are long term, the effects are not immediate. But if this drags out over a year, you can bet it will start weighing on the Philippines. Taiwan doesn't need to get upset, just keeping upping the level of different sanctions if the Philippines continue to drag on this. I'm sure the Filipino fishermen that normally plies the waters where the incident happened have not been going there lately. That's going to hurt their bottom line. If Taiwan decides to start enforcing more forcefully their fishing administration in the Spratlys, that's gonna be another blow.

joshuatree said:

I don't see it as a slap in the face. It was the US Ambassador to the Philippines who made that statement. Considering he's stationed there and no doubt being hounded by reporters local there, it's really a diplomatic reply as he said he applauds the Philippines for expression of regret and the fact that they've agreed to an investigation but last check, there's now a tiff on the joint investigation so things are very fluid. In fact, the incident is made bigger by the Philippine's continued flippity-flop which undermines their own agreements and wears thin the patience on the Taiwanese side. News reports indicate the problem over the apology was that the Philippines would offer one version in verbal agreement, then it would be something else on paper. Now, they are playing the formality game by saying the Taiwanese side needs to make a request to send their investigators over which in light of the situation, it's a "REALLY?!?" move. This recent development clearly shows the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing in the Philippines. One dept will say this, then another dept says that.

I wouldn't put a whole lot of weight with the Philippine media, particularly the Global Inquirer. Spend enough time there and you will notice it's like the unofficial propaganda mouthpiece because everything is 99% spun pro-Philippine instead of maintaining a neutral tone.

Taiwan's sanctions are long term, the effects are not immediate. But if this drags out over a year, you can bet it will start weighing on the Philippines. Taiwan doesn't need to get upset, just keeping upping the level of different sanctions if the Philippines continue to drag on this. I'm sure the Filipino fishermen that normally plies the waters where the incident happened have not been going there lately. That's going to hurt their bottom line. If Taiwan decides to start enforcing more forcefully their fishing administration in the Spratlys, that's gonna be another blow.

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I get that the statement was issued by the US Ambassador to PH, but still, that means he is speaking on behalf of the US. His words might not be meant for a TW audience, but they do serve the purpose of emboldening the PH side. As for his comment on investigation, notice that he did not mention a *joint* investigation, only that an investigation is being held. Obviously nobody in TW trusts the PH internal investigation.

As for the sanctions, you're probably right in the long term, but Ma doesn't have the benefit of long term. The TW people want redress, and they want it *now*. I suspect that the more the PH dismisses TW measures, the louder the cries will be for more extreme measures.

solarz said:

Meanwhile, the US comes up with this statement that's pretty much a slap in the face for TW:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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Actually, that's not a slap in the face at all by the US. What it is is the Global Inquirer spinning it (even the very title of the article) to be ludicrously pro Phillipines. But that is what that particular news outlet does all the time.

The response by the US Ambassador was a clinical response that simply stated what the Philippines has stated to date. That they regretted it and would be investigating it...and that is what the PH said, and, in and of itself is not a bad thing.

But the Phillipines is really failing to do those things, or act like they in fact "regret" anything.

So, please do not get caught in the PH and Global Inquirer spin trap. They are trying to focus attention away from the incident itself and the Phillipines failure to adequately respond and then somehow spin that to indicate the US is ok with it.

But the US is not okay with what they are doing, they just diplomatically said that the US is ok with what the PH government initially said. My guess is that the US will try and avoid taking sides in this at all...but the PH press and their officials will try to use anything said to their benefit. But they better be careful how far they try to make that go.

The PH government is on a fool's errand if they think this will just go away and be forgotten and act like they have done a "good" thing here.

Very bad and pitiful mistake on their part IMHO. Taiwan will use this to hurt the Phillipines and to solidify their own claims in the area...and other nations will understand why, and not oppose it internationally.

The PH officials cannot even see what they are doing to themselves. They are actually strengthening the position of Tawan in the longer standing and more important (long term) disputes. And they are doing it over an obvious mistake on their part that resulted in the killing of a Taiwan citizen. They are going to lose far, far more in the long run. They would be well served to simply say, "We are sorry, and we are going to take care of the family of the man whom was killed," and then do so, and do so handsomely.

That would have gotten them out of this. What they are doing now is simply digging their hole deeper, and it's going to cost them far, far more.

airsuperiority said:

I will pass by the area tonight on my way to clubbing. Will keep you guys updated on the duck.

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According to the organizer's Facebook announcement, wait till next week for the duck to be in shape.