North Korea says nuclear test successful

North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

It has been interesting today, listening to the reaction of the worlds media and Governments, to the news from North Korea that it is planning to conduct a Nucleur Bomb Test.

Much of the reaction has been predictable, but the interesting part has been the talk about a Regional Arms race. For a cynic like myself, suddenly much makes sense.

I have long believed that Kim is Beijings creature, a useful attack dog with which to conduct foriegn policy by proxy. In that light, a regional arms race would enable China to maintain its current rate of rapid military modernisation without being on the receiving end of unwanted questions.

It also would have another benefit for China. A Regional arms race would mean a much higher level of state Industrial spending by its neighbours. As the Regions main Industrial producer, it would mean an increase in orders for Chinese made components and Materials.

Not a bad result for simply making the dog bark eh?

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

I don't think Beijing would consider a nuclear-armed Japan an acceptable result. Neither would SK...

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

Yeah, I seriously doubt Beijing can conduct a policy of covertly undermining the interests of S. Korea and Japan by abetting N. Korea without being found out by S. Korea and Japan.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

Roger604 said:

Yeah, I seriously doubt Beijing can conduct a policy of covertly undermining the interests of S. Korea and Japan by abetting N. Korea without being found out by S. Korea and Japan.

Click to expand...

Indeed. It could easily lead to retaliation, such as Japan scrapping Article 9. Doubtless there will be calls from inside Japan to step up its efforts to reform the Constitution. Though most people still want Article 9, North Korea's brinkmanship just makes more people think it's time to have a more "flexible" defence policy.

Also, if Sampan's theory came true, maybe the US would start selling cut-price weapon packages to Taiwan and give it direct military aid.

China is already on the receiving end of "unwanted questions" regarding its military funding. And they won't go away just because other countries start spending more - the problem is that Beijing refuses to disclose the real figure. Until it does that the questions will still be asked.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

Whatever figure Beijing discloses will not be considered the real figure, even if it was accurate. What China does is moot, the real issue is the propaganda war supporting the US mil-ind complex. It is not in China's interest to disclose.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

RedMercury said:

Whatever figure Beijing discloses will not be considered the real figure, even if it was accurate. What China does is moot, the real issue is the propaganda war supporting the US mil-ind complex. It is not in China's interest to disclose.

Click to expand...

That's just the usual excuse. But China isn't going to generate any credibility by trying to deceive the world when so many credible, non-US gov institutions say it's higher. If it disclosed the real figure and it was in line with SIPRI/RAND's figures, a lot of people would probably believe it.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

FuManChu said:

That's just the usual excuse. But China isn't going to generate any credibility by trying to deceive the world when so many credible, non-US gov institutions say it's higher. If it disclosed the real figure and it was in line with SIPRI/RAND's figures, a lot of people would probably believe it.

Click to expand...

I just wanted to know if its actually possible, that they spend as much as they say, its not like their military is impressive.

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

It isn't in China's interest to disclose. The credibility gap that results, if people are to believe these third party guestimates, is inevitable fallout from this course of action. It follows that it is in China's interest to discredit these guestimates. Obviously the leaders in Beijing have considered the pros and cons of this choice of action and found it in their best interest to keep things secret. Who are you, with access to less information and little grasp of what is in China's interest, to say what course of action is better? What you present is not coming from the perspective of China's best interest, but from the perspective of certain other countries.

If China discloses its (high) spending on the military, then the "red scare" gets worse, which isn't in China's interest. Hence, it officially quotes a lower value. The leaders in Beijing believe they can manage their credibility better than they can manage such fallout. Sheesh, isn't it simple when it is spelled out?

Re: North Korean H Bomb Test - A cynical view

China plays some kind of double game on the korean peninsula indeed but the US responds in the same way for decades too.

Although a north korean nuke arsenal increases the probability of a japanese overt ´going nuclear´, China seems quite complacent about this since Beijing regards Japan already as a de facto nuclear power. Correspondingly rewriting the japanese constitution would certainly not viewed as a threat by Beijing whereas a massive conventional and nuclear military buildup of Japan´s defence forces would indeed perceived by China as a dangerous challenge.

China´s leadership regards that scenario as very unlikely since Japan´s debt already equals 170% of GDP and her military expenditure remained flat for the last 15 years. Consequently Japan can only lose a ensuing armsrace with China even if Abe Shinzo decides to extend JSDF´s budget by some 5 bn $ for some years which will only take place (if at all!) after a protracted period of internecine fighting between a myriad of politicians and bureaucrats. In the end of the day China will have added swiftly and effectively year for year 15% to PLA´s (thats only the ´official´!!) budget and JSDF will have fallen back further instead of closing the gap.

P.S.
Disclosing her ´real´ military expenditure and so doing the CIA´s or DIA´s job is not in the interest of China at all since creating uncertainty about PLA´s capabilties is part of her doctrine. (Perhaps China wants also to secure dozens of CIA and DIA analyst jobs since these people are really in need of being cared for!)

North Korea nuclear threat

Though China is a strong supporter of this regime i don`t think china is really happy with this acquaintance. Don´t you think so?

It may just some sable ramble from Kim Il but if you think further ahead this may prove a unique opportunity for china to have his own Vietnam/ (USA) --Afghanistan (Former Sowjietunion).

Why do i think so? because china maybe have no choice but to invade north korea to prevent anything happen that may not in chinas liking.

1. USA is invading North Korea to prevent any nuclear bomb test and to overthrow Kim Il
2. Before the USA happen to invade N.K. , China just step ahead and kicks Kim Il out of his seat and invade N.K. so that no G.I. is sitting just a few meters from his own borders.
3. Kiml Il really have the Bomb and gone crazy or let the bomb fall over Seoul or over his own citizen because they have the guts to demonstrate against their supreme leader .
4. Kim Il sells bomb to any terrorist organization.
5. it may a good chance to have N.K. as a new province ^^ just a joke
just think it as development aid.