I wouldn't say "not unlike the last one" because that implies China would somehow support North Korea. If China sent the PLA into North Korea it would be against the Pyongyang regime. If it tried to annex North Korea in part or full, let alone support it, it would lead to an Asian Cold War, destroying all the good relations China had forged with its neighbours and the US (any many other countries).
If they are retarded enough to 'annex', sure. Nobody tried that trick for a long, long time. What might happen (unlikely, mind) is the installation of a more sane leader. Mind you, that's a small probability against a zero probability event. The relative difference is huge, the absolute difference, not so much. And if that happens, that's a lot of relieved people out there. Some annoyed people, but I don't see any fundamental reason why this mode would 'destroy any good relations'.
Indeed. We are here because China and Russia backed and mollycoddled North Korea so much. After years of
"oh, leave North Korea alone - they mean it when they aren't seeking nuclear weapons" what do we have? A crazy country gradually adding nuclear warheads to its arsenal and building long-range missiles. The same thing is repeating itself with Iran.
When will people stop being so foolish, always wishing for the best rather than facing hard facts? Perhaps China will only wake up when a country like Japan goes nuclear....
That's easy for you to say, you don't have a land border with North Korea. I really doubt the people in Moscow and Beijing is incapable of seeing what you can.
Notice how even the South Koreans typically are more circumspect about provoking the Norks? They are not doing this because they are blind, they are doing it because they don't really have a good choice. North Korean refugees is ALREADY a problem for China, causing much embarassment (i.e. every time some Norks break into a foreign compound in Beijing and beg for asylum), to say nothing of a net resource drain of all the fuel and food sent over (paid for in parts by goods and in parts by North Korean currency... you can guess how much that is worth). And you may not remember this, but the Norks may be testing missiles that can possibly reach America, but it has LONG had missiles that can reach Beijing.
So let's see what sort of realistic options China and Russia has outside of your ideal world where everybody joint hands and tell North Korea off:
1) Apply political pressure
Result: Get laughed at. Don't know if you've noticed it, but the Norks didn't listen to Mao in 1953, that's when there're a million Chinamen in North Korea. Their entire political philosophy is based on self-reliance.
2) Apply economic pressure
Result: See 1, but also add tide of refugees. Bottom line, the army gets fed, the army says 'fuck the people'. Party stay in power, everybody gets a border-control problem - there is a reason why China beefed up the number of divisions next to North Korean back in 2006.
3) Invade, install puppet regime
Result: China can't afford a war. It is not altogether clear China can win one if China tries given the limited amount of force that can be applied. Then see 2. And see refugee problems. And face international bad press.
4) Invade, annex.
Result: See above, upgrade international bad press to international condemnation
5) Invite the South Koreans, the Japanese and the Americans or some combination thereof to invade
Result: Buffer state gone, American/ South Korean/ Japanese power right up to the Yalu. Refugee problem as above, maybe less severe because more North Koreans can run south... but then there's a big fortified border there, so. And no, South Korea is not capable of calming down the situation so much, so fast, and rev up the economy fast enough to make that go away in the short to medium term, not even with Japanese and American help.
6) Rattle sabre.
Result: Get laughed at. The Americans and the South KOreans already do that every year in huge joint exercises. I don't notice the North folding like a house of cards.
In the absence of any realistic option, nevermind one that would produce a result that is better than the status quo, Moscow-Beijing basically has to bite down and grin (hmm, that's a bit hard to do).
In Moscow's case, there's also the 'we don't really give a fuck what happens' thing going on.
If you have a better idea, I am listening.
