News on China's scientific and technological development.

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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng said:
Problem is there are half century worth of designs, IPs and so on in the possession of the USA , so when we talk about difficulty to manufacture it is not just about cutting edge, but several cases old technology, that require special quirks to make the desired products.

Like radhard electronics, high power amplifier and so on.

Like the move of the USA to forbid machien sales to the Rusnano for the MRAM production line.

That is a "primitive" one, on 45nm, but without special machines it is not possible to make the MRAMs
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US also made 50 years of advancement in various other tech like Radar, Jet engines, Missiles. But PLA closed that gap by force. Using copying, hacking, poaching whatever it took. China will have to employ the same strategy and close this gap by brute force of state power.


Even 5 years ago China didn't need chips actually. All phones, devices and computers were western or other foreign brands. Huawei was pretty much nowhere in cellphones. Xiaomi and Oppo didn't even exist. State power did not really focus on getting a chip industry. They thought this is a field China will develop naturally and western products will be there anyway. China relied on market forces to develop this.

So, China's new vulnerability for Chips is a new phenomena. China didn't focus on developing it in the past because they didn't need to. Now, times have changed. China now has cellphone, laptop and other device brands that are outcompeting the west. So, China will focus on getting it done with state power.

I don't think Chip industry is all that difficult in terms technology. Especially if you compare it with military grade tech such as advanced radars and sensors, or jet engines. Just like developing a commercial plane, its just extremely capital intensive and requires massive capital investments to get started. Once China really uses state power to make advances in this field. It will be done in no time at all.
 
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng said:
I think it is safe to say it won't help too much .

China will need intensive, 5 years long run, during it it will need 10-100 times more money to catch up to the USA at 2025 than required by the USA to continue the trend as it did.

It will be a huge investment, and the worst part of it is if any small detail of the picture late, then the whole project will be late.
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That is what they said when China want to build an atomic bomb.

Guess how long that took?

From that industrial base!

Haha!

The naysayers of America do not have a chance here!

:D
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
horse said:
I think that is BS.

There is no way America is number 3 in these math contests.

Unless it is all the immigrant kids that did it.

Black Lives Matter!
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Yeah, the US actually wins the math comps sometimes but basically all of their contestants are Chinese, with some Indian or Russians peppered in. Some years, it's all Chinese and the people running the thing have a hard time figuring out which team is team China and which is team USA when presenting the gold and silver medals.

bomberman said:
Below is a link to the International Olympiad for Informatics 2020 results

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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Holy smokes, the top 7 out of 341 contestants are 6 Chinese and a Korean. All 4 of the PRC's entries are accounted for in the top 7 and all 3 of America's entries that made it into the top 29 for gold tier were Chinese. Both "Canadians" who made it there are also Chinese. Shit, if I were American, I'd take one look at my kid who requires 3 packs of Pokemon cards and a PS4 game of his choice if he ever gets B or higher in public school math and be scared to death of a country of 1.4 billion of these... LOL
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
mderfox said:
Its not that easy. Equipment need maintenance, if original spare part contain US input, sales spare part will be banned. US doesn't need evidence, what they need is "suspected".

For current news SMIC will likely get sanction. Practically billion worth equipment is scraps. I don't know if they can withstand the losses. With stock price keep falling, investor will pull out money, there are potential they will file bankruptcy.

Im not optimistic about SMIC. If im not mistaken their major customer is Qualcomm. Huawei is just small part of their revenue. What they facing much worst than what Huawei facing. At least for Huawei they can switch to software and IoT they still can withstand until locally made FAB is available and at the same times US still granted license for intel and AMD and probably Qualcomm. While SMIC doesn't have much choice. What facing SMIC is same with ZTE, waiting to get slaughter.
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You think that China will just let its main chip manufacturer just fail?
 
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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
mderfox said:
Its not that easy. Equipment need maintenance, if original spare part contain US input, sales spare part will be banned. US doesn't need evidence, what they need is "suspected".

For current news SMIC will likely get sanction. Practically billion worth equipment is scraps. I don't know if they can withstand the losses. With stock price keep falling, investor will pull out money, there are potential they will file bankruptcy.

Im not optimistic about SMIC. If im not mistaken their major customer is Qualcomm. Huawei is just small part of their revenue. What they facing much worst than what Huawei facing. At least for Huawei they can switch to software and IoT they still can withstand until locally made FAB is available and at the same times US still granted license for intel and AMD and probably Qualcomm. While SMIC doesn't have much choice. What facing SMIC is same with ZTE, waiting to get slaughter.
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Spare parts can be reverse engineered and made by Chinese companies themselves. Most companies are conservative and lazy about making a new investment. So, they just find the easiest solution which is buying it. Once you have a lack of parts and a clear business to be made, companies that will make the same part will pop up very quickly.

In fact, not just that, there will be a huge black market set up. There will be plenty of foreign companies that will buy US parts only resell it to Chinese companies in secret. Once you are willing to pay more, anything can be bought. Anything at all.

Do you think Iran sanctions have stopped Iranians from buying American products? Nope. They have everything there. Including Apple products. Its just more expensive that's all. North Korea is still doing well despite all the sanctions. Black market can supply anything if there is a need for it.
 
E

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
Weaasel said:
You think that China will just let its main chip manufacturer just fail?
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Considering how Trump is now being attacked on all sides and many big companies are now suing him and heck now his tax returns. I will not be surprised if China has finally gotten quite sick of him and are now threatening to put many USA firms on the entity list, meaning you screw USA with Huawei, get ready to see a world without iPhones and Boeing aero planes in return. This has the potential to sink the USA economy for real since those two firms are as iconic to the USA as Huawei is to China. If the USA has thrown everything against Huawei and Huawei is still alive, honestly how long can either apples/Boeing last given that many main components can only be made in China and neither firms are prepared for such an senario especially right now. Also given how these companies also require the Chinese market to survive and the USA market in hell right now, Trump is going to end in extremely deep shit with these corporations, just like with HK, the USA thought they had it in the bag, but then all of a sudden, one move is all it will take to sink them completely
 
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nugroho

Junior Member
Anlsvrthng said:
I think it is safe to say it won't help too much .

China will need intensive, 5 years long run, during it it will need 10-100 times more money to catch up to the USA at 2025 than required by the USA to continue the trend as it did.

It will be a huge investment, and the worst part of it is if any small detail of the picture late, then the whole project will be late.
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If you count 5 years, then begin it from ZTE ban, that time China was awaken by West dominance in semicon, almost no preparation at all, ZTE fell. But it had been 2 years since that , what you said is being done by China.. And yes, count the money China had poured for R&D in semicon, you will find it very big.
Just look, in very short time ( 2 years ) 28 nm is in China hand. Remember China began from a very low point in equipment
So, I think It is safe to say China's semicon will be mature in 2025, maybe a lot of sooner
 
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