News on China's scientific and technological development.

tamsen_ikard said:

I don't think you realize how bad the situation is for China. Carl Zha is talking about secondary sanctions, which means anyone that sells SMIC gets sanctioned too. So, no more korean parts or any other companies.

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1. A very good summary of the risks. One point I wish you would have made, is about the Chinese people. The Chinese are many things, and one prominent trait is that the Chinese are gamblers. This is a bet, if Trump actually goes through with it, secondary sanctions, we will see a billion Chinese lining up to make that bet, and the other .4 billion would have given the 1 billion money to make that bet on their behalf.

2. How can anyone be sure that someone like the Koreans will play cowboys and Indians, automatically choosing the United States side? Next to no one listened to Obama to not join the A.I.I.B. thingy, hardly anyone rejected the opportunities from the B.R.I. thingy, and let's remember that Huawei 5G was a near shut out in Europe before the pressure got to Boris, who may change his mind again with the window open that long. If the recent past is any indication, the Chinese cannot wait to make this bet.

3. In the end, points 1 & 2 are irrelevant because the Chinese will not take the threat of secondary sanctions seriously. The American government, will be betting their own US corporations, and will be betting their US Dollar reserve currency status, on what countries all around China would decide. If the Americans win the bet, all they would have done is uphold the status quo, and there is no guarantee that would even last very long, such as China improving it domestic tech. If the Americans lose, they wave bye-bye. They gonna bet everything to preserve the status quo, no one does that.

4. The threat of secondary sanctions just psych ops. However, the CCP strongly wishes it would happen, regardless of what they publicly say.

All in all, China is in a "Total War" situation. Even if China doesn't want autarky, it can have some degree of autarky imposed on it from the outside, particularly from the US. The sad reality is that China cannot count on anybody except Pakistan and maybe Russia to help, and even Russia will be half-hearted. China is surrounded on almost all sides by hostile powers, and they collectively are more technologically advanced, have a far larger economy and a far bigger population than China.

China's position is similar to that of the Israeli Defense Forces.

The only way for China to get out of this is if it MASSIVELY increases basic research spending and R&D subsidies. There has to be a paradigm shift in the way China views science and technology. In the past, Chinese society did value the importance of science and had national goals to increase China's science capabilities, but these were way too slow for the needs of today. The old way of thinking was totally inadequate. Chinese society must mobilize a whole-of-society response to raise China's science level and bring it up very quickly. If it does not, it will fall further and further behind and eventually it will never be able to catch up. China today is under tech embargo, which would be an act of war in any different context. The magnitude of what is happening is huge and the Chinese people should appreciate it.

manqiangrexue said:

Lobbying the US to keep selling chips to China is like lobbying the British for more opium because you can't handle your withdrawal symptoms. I never want to see another American chip in China again, not even a Dorito. Qualcomm should be permanently banned, no more tech opium.

Biden? No way. If America elects Biden, the world may see that as a chance of hope that American can return to its leadership position. I want Trump Trump Trump until the US goes down like the Soviet Union. I want all US allies to know that this is the man that America wants to represent them and the America of this year with all its disasters, failures, criminal activity and diplomatic transgressions is the norm going forward. I want either Dotard himself to change the American constitution (to the backdrop of American cities burning under protests) so he can continue past the second term or for one of his imbecile sons to be elected after him. Let American allies know that America is gone forever.

2025?? By 2025 Huawei will probably lead the world in semiconductor production. Next year SMEE comes out with its DUV capable of making 7nm chips and Huawei has been looking into dual processor designs. Unlike all other generations where the packing density is doubled, 7nm to 5nm is not that big a leap. Huawei can likely overcome the difference just by design.

China has more people than the US and EU combined, more stem talent than the entire developed world combined; if China can't get this done in record time, Chinese people don't deserve to use cellphones!

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I firmly believe that China will from this point onwards always ensure that it has the capability of producing domestically anything that is worth producing. With regards to items of high technology, China will ensure that they are produced sufficiently for commerical purpose, but also for strategic purposes. Trump has thoroughly jolted China into painfully realizing that absolutely necessity with URGENCY.

Within China, one of the main questions that is on the minds of hundreds of millions of people presently, is why China can't presently produce all high tech products itself, given its human resources and its wealth, and what can be done to ensure that it can do so within not more than a decade.

s002wjh said:

yea, but SMIC also use US manufacture tools like applied materials, so Trump could go after SMIC after huawei start shift its fab to SMIC like he did with TSMC. maybe thats why Huawei want to work with samsung in short term, long term they want become something like Samsung where it can fab its own chips.

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The United States can pass a law that any company which trades with Huawei in any particular types and categories of items that it does not want Huawei to purchase will be subject to US sanctions, even if such items possess no US made content and are made with equipment that possesses no US made content.

Can the United States legally make a law that any company which trades with Huawei in any particular types and categories of items that it does not want Huawei to purchase will be subject to US sanctions, even if such items possess no US made content and are made with equipment that possesses no US made content?

free_6ix9ine said:

@WTAN Could you chime in? The translation is hard to decipher. What's the difference between a direct write vs the dual beam? Sounds like the dual beam is just two direct write lasers attached? Does it use a photo mask? What's the efficiency level?

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It uses some new technology but it is still a Laser Direct Write Litho Machine. It just uses a dual beam to achieve a shorter Wavelength and greater resolution. Laser Direct Write Litho machines are not good for mass production of Chips. But this technology will result in probably one of the best Direct Write machines.

Some Japanese Companies are actually developing a Mutli Beam Litho Machine which can actually Mass produce Chips. Each machine has hundreds of Lasers which can process hundreds of Chips individually at the same time. Maybe these guys can look into this type of Multi Beam Litho Machine setup and utilise the technology they have developed.

The interesting part is actually the CAS Shanghai Guangxue Company developing and patenting a method to reduce LPP EUV Light Debris using Magnetic Fields. It specifically refers to this technology being applied to LPP EUV. This Patent quite likely means that the Changchun Institute EUV Project has decided that it will use the LPP EUV as the main light source. The DPP EUV has been rumoured to be unable to generate sufficient power.

KYli said:

It is great. China worried too much about the US maximum pressure tactics. As much as people claimed that Trump is irrational and desperate, it doesn't mean China can't retaliate.

Like I said letting the US picking you one by one is the worst case scenario. By going after so many companies at the same time, it would actually make the sanctions less effective.

All those Taiwan, Japan, and US companies have made a ton of money from China and Chinese companies. They thought they could come out unscratched. Maybe not, as Trump seems to go after everyone and anyone.

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At this point in time, it doesn't make sense for China to retaliate.

The US doesn't have any rational or consistent decision making until the November 2020 elections are over.

It's another 2-3 months, so Chinese companies can hold out for that long against any likely actions.

So any overt retaliation should wait until after the US elections, because the winner has to look to the next 4 years.

WTAN said:

It uses some new technology but it is still a Laser Direct Write Litho Machine. It just uses a dual beam to achieve a shorter Wavelength and greater resolution. Laser Direct Write Litho machines are not good for mass production of Chips. But this technology will result in probably one of the best Direct Write machines.

Some Japanese Companies are actually developing a Mutli Beam Litho Machine which can actually Mass produce Chips. Each machine has hundreds of Lasers which can process hundreds of Chips individually at the same time. Maybe these guys can look into this type of Multi Beam Litho Machine setup and utilise the technology they have developed.

The interesting part is actually the CAS Shanghai Guangxue Company developing and patenting a method to reduce LPP EUV Light Debris using Magnetic Fields. It specifically refers to this technology being applied to LPP EUV. This Patent quite likely means that the Changchun Institute EUV Project has decided that it will use the LPP EUV as the main light source. The DPP EUV has been rumoured to be unable to generate sufficient power.

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Hi WTAN,

Is there any news regarding the progress on EUV project? and also about the DUV how many can be produce in a month by SMEE, can they able to mass produce the machine? sorry for being pushy but its been a hell of a week full of bad news.

horse said:

I am really suspicious about something here ...

Why would a box like a base station need the fastest chip possible?

There is no reason why, this sounds like a real time experiment.

3G and 4G worked without 7nm, and probably 5G too.

Well ... guess what ... who is building the first stand alone 5G network in the world?

Maybe all those boxes with 7nm chips not even for export?

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I expect 7nm is mainly about electricity consumption, rather than speed.

All that extra data throughput takes power, and it costs money to upgrade the electricity infrastructure.

.

AndrewS said:

At this point in time, it doesn't make sense for China to retaliate.

The US doesn't have any rational or consistent decision making until the November 2020 elections are over.

It's another 2-3 months, so Chinese companies can hold out for that long against any likely actions.

So any overt retaliation should wait until after the US elections, because the winner has to look to the next 4 years.

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Hi AndrewS,

China has nothing to retaliate cause she is holding a weak hand in relation to IC, any retaliation is self inflicting, the American know this that's why they are applying maximum pressure, what she can able to do is galvanize the sector by confirming govt support and apply a national strategy to implement a whole approach. Surrender is not a option, Im not a techie expert but with this pandemic and economic depression, it will give China time and breathing space to accomplished it.