News on China's scientific and technological development.

Orthan said:

The US government has tighted the tech restrictions against huawei:

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Now, not even mediatek or samsung will be able to make deals with huawei.

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This bloomberg article mentions that only a few semiconductor companies in the world do not rely on software from US companies synopys and cadence and regarding hardware, even smic uses tech from US companies applied materials and lam research. I guess that if smic supplies chips to huawei, it could be barred from US tech.

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Orthan said:

The US government has tighted the tech restrictions against huawei:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Now, not even mediatek or samsung will be able to make deals with huawei.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This bloomberg article mentions that only a few semiconductor companies in the world do not rely on software from US companies synopys and cadence and regarding hardware, even smic uses tech from US companies applied materials and lam research. I guess that if smic supplies chips to huawei, it could be barred from US tech.

Click to expand...

gadgetcool5 said:

I think this is something that can only be settled at the government-to-government level. The Chinese government needs to look at what it can do on the trade end to entice the Trump administration to back off.

Alternately, Huawei may be forced to cease operations, although it can continue to sell the products it already has with the chips it already has, such as the P40 Pro and possibly the Mate 40. After that it is left only with its intellectual property, paid-in capital, and brand name. I would say most of the paid-in capital should be folded into a new conglomerate dedicated to making indigenous replacements for all US parts in the global semiconductor supply chain, of course starting at the bottom of the barrel low end. The brand name must survive no matter what.

In the meantime if I'm Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi I'm petrified and want to collaborate with Huawei to keep the HarmonyOS project alive.

The question is what China can do if the US puts a complete semiconductor embargo on all Chinese companies. If that is the case, China must not let American companies profit from these moves by taking market share in China. It can however temporarily cover up the issue by allowing Samsung and other US competitor companies to profit. This will drive a wedge between US industry and its allied industries. But under no circumstances whatsoever should US tech companies be allowed to gain revenue or market share in the Chinese domestic market due to entity list bans.

My ideal policy would be to impose a national origin tax on high tech goods-- the higher value added share comes from American components, the higher the tax. For example, a $500 phone with 25% American value added would be subject to a high tax on $125, maybe as high as 50% or even 100%.

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gadgetcool5 said:

I think this is something that can only be settled at the government-to-government level. The Chinese government needs to look at what it can do on the trade end to entice the Trump administration to back off.

Alternately, Huawei may be forced to cease operations, although it can continue to sell the products it already has with the chips it already has, such as the P40 Pro and possibly the Mate 40. After that it is left only with its intellectual property, paid-in capital, and brand name. I would say most of the paid-in capital should be folded into a new conglomerate dedicated to making indigenous replacements for all US parts in the global semiconductor supply chain, of course starting at the bottom of the barrel low end. The brand name must survive no matter what.

In the meantime if I'm Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi I'm petrified and want to collaborate with Huawei to keep the HarmonyOS project alive.

The question is what China can do if the US puts a complete semiconductor embargo on all Chinese companies. If that is the case, China must not let American companies profit from these moves by taking market share in China. It can however temporarily cover up the issue by allowing Samsung and other US competitor companies to profit. This will drive a wedge between US industry and its allied industries. But under no circumstances whatsoever should US tech companies be allowed to gain revenue or market share in the Chinese domestic market due to entity list bans.

My ideal policy would be to impose a national origin tax on high tech goods-- the higher value added share comes from American components, the higher the tax. For example, a $500 phone with 25% American value added would be subject to a high tax on $125, maybe as high as 50% or even 100%.

Click to expand...

gadgetcool5 said:

I think this is something that can only be settled at the government-to-government level. The Chinese government needs to look at what it can do on the trade end to entice the Trump administration to back off.

Alternately, Huawei may be forced to cease operations, although it can continue to sell the products it already has with the chips it already has, such as the P40 Pro and possibly the Mate 40. After that it is left only with its intellectual property, paid-in capital, and brand name. I would say most of the paid-in capital should be folded into a new conglomerate dedicated to making indigenous replacements for all US parts in the global semiconductor supply chain, of course starting at the bottom of the barrel low end. The brand name must survive no matter what.

In the meantime if I'm Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi I'm petrified and want to collaborate with Huawei to keep the HarmonyOS project alive.

The question is what China can do if the US puts a complete semiconductor embargo on all Chinese companies. If that is the case, China must not let American companies profit from these moves by taking market share in China. It can however temporarily cover up the issue by allowing Samsung and other US competitor companies to profit. This will drive a wedge between US industry and its allied industries. But under no circumstances whatsoever should US tech companies be allowed to gain revenue or market share in the Chinese domestic market due to entity list bans.

My ideal policy would be to impose a national origin tax on high tech goods-- the higher value added share comes from American components, the higher the tax. For example, a $500 phone with 25% American value added would be subject to a high tax on $125, maybe as high as 50% or even 100%.

Click to expand...

muddie said:

China can play the rare earth metals card but might be too premature giving election is around the corner. IMO it's also not in China's interest to further heighten tensions given that the Trump administration might be on it's last leg and inflaming tensions could play into Trump's hand of distracting the election process and focus.

Targeting U.S. companies is counterproductive because these companies are already under a lot of fire from the Trump administration for doing business in China. If China singles out U.S. tech companies and punishes them when they have done nothing wrong, then you are giving them incentive to move away.

It should be the other way around IMO, where China tries to draw more business from U.S. companies, especially after many of these companies lost profits from COVID. Tensions with China are already worrying many U.S. companies because it could mean lost profits. Let the U.S. firms figure it out with Trump.

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Weaasel said:

Who is to say that the Trump Administration is rational? The Trump Administration might escalate things to other areas and increasingly preventing US companies from doing any business with China.

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muddie said:

That would be in the interest of China if the Trump Administration is punishing U.S. companies for doing business in China. Trump is already getting attacked by Big Tech because of his visa policies. At the end of the day profit is all the matters for U.S. companies.

A Chinese retaliation would need to come after the results of the election. If Biden wins and China retaliated beforehand, it would create a tense situation with the Biden administration right off the bat.

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Weaasel said:

For one that so often preaches accommodation and moderation, this is quite a deviation...

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AssassinsMace said:

None of this is surprising. Trump is being Trump. What's pulling his strings are those in the Republican Party that were against Nixon opening relations with China. That's how far it goes back. This is their playbook. Compromise is not a part of their vocabulary. It's a sign of weakness and not for just for them. If they see the Chinese seeking compromise, they see themselves as winning and in the power position and therefore won't be compromising. It's unconditional surrender. What gets me sick are Chinese who think they're capable of charming these people therefore take the wrong actions.

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