News on China's scientific and technological development.

manqiangrexue

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I was told that those carbon fiber bikes from China that cost about USD1,000 or even less are not made of carbon fiber but fiberglass. Damn.
That is absolutely not true. Even the worst Chinese knock-off carbon fiber bike is still carbon fiber these days. Chinese knock-off carbon bike frames are typically slightly heavier than the bikes they copy but they are often stronger. Pinarello is the most often imitated bike brand and while authentic Pinarello frames are about 100 grams lighter than Chinese knock-offs, they rated 80 vs 86 in damage resistance, losing to the Chinese frames. Brands like Pinarello and Specialized warn consumers against Chinese knock-offs simply by saying that they are 1. not backed by a reliable warranty and 2. not quality-inspected. But they can find no real faults with them, at least none that are not inherent to all carbon frames.

The Western cycling consumer used to be strongly against Chinese frames saying that they rob the innovation out of the cycling scene and that one who cannot afford a Pinarello should not pretend to ride one. However, COVID caused bicycle prices to shoot up notably while disposable income has decreased, leading to the increasingly popular sentiment that bicycle companies deserve to be robbed by Chinese imitators because they are robbing thier fans. Their warranty claim is being debunked because they will at most warranty your bike frame once and they specifically say that they are not liable for any damages beyond the bicycle (ie your hospital bills) so what good is it to pay $6K for a genuine frame with the possibility of a second if the first one fails when you can buy 2 Chinese frames for $2K, ride one and keep one for back-up with $4K in the pocket? Also, Chinese companies, even knock-off manufacturers are being held by their platforms like AliExpress to offer 1-2 year warranties, which they do. The second point that the QC may not be up to par with genuine frames is legitimate but that leads to the situation where you might get a perfect frame for $1K or you might get one with minor alignment issues, etc... which are actually covered by the warranties of Chinese imitation companies or are usually fixable by a handy person.

In addition to the imitations, there are Chinese brands that have arisen. They are typically more expensive than the knock-offs, less expensive than Western competitors, and competitive with Western competitors. Lun(2) makes arguably the best wheels on the market with carbon fiber wheels laced with carbon fiber spokes! No Western bike wheel company makes a wheel that can compare to the Lun Hyper in both performance and damage resistance; top end American wheels are typically double the price, comparable in performance, somewhat weaker damage resistence while European top end wheels, especially German ones, can be 4-5X the cost, somewhat superior in performance, with much weaker damage resistance and nearly no serviceability when damaged. Winspace and Elves are 2 Chinese brands that are quite impressive and well-known in the West. China cycling expos usually showcase much more new technology than cycling expos anywhere else in the world with mature American/European/Japanese companies showing incremental improvements while Chinese companies are always wildly aggressive in trying new technology.
 
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tphuang

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took a solid look through all the investor reports and such. Looks like T1000/1100 is still in low rate production and testing. Maybe haven't hit the performance or consistency required yet.

on 光威复合

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Baotou project looks to have hit phase 1 production of 4000t now.
定型产品供货一直是光威复材稳健经营的基础。在此基础上,光威复材多年研发投入形成的储备产品,正随着应用领域的拓展或批产逐步彰显价值,包括CCF700G、T800H级、M40J/M55J级、T700S、T800S等。
It looks like the top end stuff they are currently mass producing are CCF700G and T800H class.

孙绍桓介绍:“包头项目生产的T700级产品,实际上强度和模量指标比一般的T700都要高一些,其拉伸强度达到5500MPa以上,模量达到260GPa,指标已经接近于T800级产品。”
值得注意的是,包头一期项目还生产T1000。高强度和高模量,一直是衡量碳纤维技术发展水平的重要指标。目前,光威复材已经实现了T1000、T1100的规模化生产。孙绍桓介绍:“我们包头项目生产T1000用的所有装备,从纺丝线到低温和高温碳化炉,再到关键零部件,都是由光威复材自主研发设计生产的,实现了全套设备的国产化。”

However
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2024Q1 航空定型产品大合同执行率 8.6%,我们计算履行金 额 1.8 亿元(含税),传统定型纤维产品订单稳定、交付及时,依然是公司收入和业绩的重要 基石。公司包头一期年产 4000 吨 T700S/T800S 通用碳纤维产能 6 月起释放。未来几年是国 内碳纤维产能投产爬坡阶段,供需结构失衡或将持续影响通用碳纤维价格和利润率水平

If you just read this and some of the other stuff. It seems like they previously announced T1000 as part of what will be produced in phase 1 of Baotou, but how much of this 4000t will be T1000 is hard to decipher.
They seem to mostly be talking about their T700 and T800 products.
 

SanWenYu

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Just to show how "rich" the country is in carbon fibres nowadays, China is building cargo freight train cars from this once expensive and scarce material. The very first six carbon fibre train cars will be used for hauling coals.

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今天(10日)上午,由我国自主研发的首批碳纤维重载铁路货车,在黑龙江齐齐哈尔正式下线。这次下线的铁路货车共有6辆,首次使用以碳纤维为主的新材料构成。货车自重仅18吨,载重达到82吨,容积94.3立方米,为国内同轴重铁路货车最高水平,车辆整体技术世界领先。 据了解,首批碳纤维重载铁路货车将投入煤炭重载运输上。
 

antiterror13

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nice article here on China's carbon fiber development


Looks like they are really going full throat at not just carbon fiber production but the upstream supply chain.

and 中简科技 is the leader in supplying high end aerospace carbon fibers.

some numbers to think about


China has 138k out of 290k total capacity in carbon fiber globally
total global production in 2023 is 115k and I see that China produced maybe 53k?

Does it mean the production volume is less than 50% of the capacity
 

tphuang

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Does it mean the production volume is less than 50% of the capacity
This chart showed 51% in 2023, so there were some exports also
CarbonFiber_ChinaDemandVsProduction_2017-2025.png
The crazy part is actually just how much more they are expanding. Expecting to reach 294k ton by end of next year with just 47% utilization.
And they are expecting domestic market to expand quite a bit. Now, I don't know if it will actually reach there, since the 2023 estimate never reached.
Let's wait a couple of yrs. But 2019 to 2025 capacity could jump 11x.

The newest tech for carbon fiber is T1200 now I believe. Toray announced it a year go.
sure, but it just got announced. Once, Domestic firms start mass producing T1000/1100, they are pretty much state of art already.
 

tphuang

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China is now world's far and away largest Titanium producer of raw ore, sponge and alloy.

It amuses me to see articles like this. At current rate, there won't be much of a Titanium industry in Western country in 5 years. So much Chinese capacity coming online.

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