News on China's scientific and technological development.

latenlazy

Brigadier
Media isn't useless. It's soft power. People laugh at anime and hollywood until you realize that more people are learning Japanese than Mandarin purely for understanding anime and manga.
AI blended language outputs won't translate to media soft power. Effective soft power requires strategic intent, not word salad outputs.

And language can make humans do physical things. Like I said, one very scary use. Unleash ChatGTP on every public forum to influence the narrative, shill products and push propaganda. Instead of bots that you can clearly tell apart, it's speaking better than most humans.
No, *human relationships* can make humans do physical things. Language without social relational meaning is just mundane marketing copy.

And again, my issue is that China is been ignoring such an obvious and powerful technology. It's worse than being behind. It's not even realizing that that particular area is even worth investing in the first place, or that you're even behind. Why didn't we see such an explosion of activity from the A.I sector in the last few months back in 2020 when GTP-3 was making such buzz? Forgetting developing ChatGTP first, I would have liked them to have saw the potential of GTP-2 in 2018 and started a industry wide effort back then, instead of scrambling now
Please explain its power to me. What is it powerfully affecting right now beyond hype and junk food media consumption?

What's next? America actually figuring out a A.I model that can reach AGI and China ignores it until America is a century ahead?
Not everything America does is something that should be emulated. Great example of that is crypto. Please exercise some critical thinking instead of being a cheerleader.
Some experts do think it is. After all, LLM spontaneously develop some level of reasoning capabilities with enough parameters. There's clearly something going on in the model then just predictive text.
Chat-GPT has trouble solving math problems.

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What you think is "reasoning" from GPT is what's referred to as simulacra in AI philosophy. We test reasoning by consistency of accuracy, not by coincidental accuracy. You really need to work on your literacy for this subject before you get comfortable passing judgments about which opinions have substance and which are hot air.

Early days and all that. 2 years ago, I never would have thought that A.I could progress beyond drawing stick figures too. And going "this isn't as impressive as you think is it" isn't helping when my issue is why China didn't develop it earlier or were the first to develop it.
If you thought AI couldn't draw stick figures 2 years ago then you haven't been following this space for very long or very deeply.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
The first part of fixing a problem is acknowledging the that you have an issue. And yes, I do feel a little smarter by thinking that GTP-3 was going to be a games changer, when chinese researchers were sleeping on it until ChatGTP slapped them in the face.

One big issue. ChatGTP wasn't the first on the block. There was GTP-2 2018, GTP-3 2020, PaLM, LaMDA, flamingo, openAI codex, Megatron, Github copilot and other offshoots like text to image A.I. All released years before ChatGTP. But it wasn't until the immense mainstream success of ChatGTP that everyone in China began to take notice and actually started to hop on the LLM train. Why? Were they lazy? Did they think that LLM was a dead end? Did they not keep up with the advances in their own field? I find it supcisous that the first LLM to really go mainstream was the first one to catch the chinese A.I industry off guard.

A few companies like Huawei or Baidu were working on LLM, but they never released it to the public, or actually made use of it. And it's nothing compared to the dozens of companies currently working on ChatGTP clones in the last 5 months, or the interest in chinese companies asking for a ChatGTP clone for use in their business. Why did Baidu only sought to integrate ERNIE into their search engine after mircosoft announced that they would be integrating GTP-4 into Bing?


When A.I is concerned, a lag time of a few months might as well be a few years. Whoever gets AGI first leapfrogs a century ahead in a matter of months. This is like being WWII, and not caring about who develop nukes first. Did Japan think that America was going to wait a few months to let them develop nukes before they got nuked?

Also, when development of A.I is based on data, being the first, locking in consumers and letting them generate all that sweet sweet data by using your A.I for you is only going to accelerate your lead.

Surely the dozens of startups, companies, A.I labs and universities that want to create a ChatGTP style startup months after ChatGTP launched isn't a clue? Or the fact that most of those are starting from scratch, instead of accelerating an already existing project, meaning that most of them weren't even working on LLM before ChatGTP went so mainstream that they couldn't afford to ignore it. Baidu CEO outright stated that the public launch of ERNIE was due to pressure from ChatGTP, even having to release it in an incomplete state.

If they were aware, most of them would have started projects of their own before ChatGTP launched, it wasn't like GTP-2 or the myriad of other LLMs weren't a sign of things to come back in 2018.

That depends. Some experts do think that LLM can reach a certain level of understanding with enough parameters. After all, LLM spontaneously already develop some level of reasoning capabilities with enough parameters. There's clearly something going on in the model then just predictive text. We haven't seen what this LLM can do when they reach trillions of parameters. But even if there needs some novel new method I sure as hell expect America to do so first if the sorry state of chinese A.I rearchers can't even hop on the LLM bandwagon until it's slapping them in the face.

Media isn't useless. It's soft power. People laugh at anime and hollywood until you realize that more people are learning Japanese than Mandarin purely for understanding anime and manga.


And language can make humans do physical things. Like I said, one very scary use. Unleash ChatGTP on every public forum to influence the narrative, shill products and push propaganda. Instead of bots that you can clearly tell apart, it's speaking better than most humans.

And again, my issue is that China is been ignoring such an obvious and powerful technology. It's worse than being behind. It's not even realizing that that particular area is even worth investing in the first place, or that you're even behind. Why didn't we see such an explosion of activity from the A.I sector in the last few months back in 2020 when GTP-3 was making such buzz? Forgetting developing ChatGTP first, I would have liked them to have saw the potential of GTP-2 in 2018 and started a industry wide effort back then, instead of scrambling now

What's next? America actually figuring out a A.I model that can reach AGI and China ignores it until America is a century ahead?

Some experts do think it is. After all, LLM spontaneously develop some level of reasoning capabilities with enough parameters. There's clearly something going on in the model then just predictive text.


Early days and all that. 2 years ago, I never would have thought that A.I could progress beyond drawing stick figures too. And going "this isn't as impressive as you think is it" isn't helping when my issue is why China didn't develop it earlier or were the first to develop it.
Media isn't useless. It's soft power. People laugh at anime and hollywood until you realize that more people are learning Japanese than Mandarin purely for understanding anime and manga.
Where is the supporting data to support this claim?
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
AI blended language outputs won't translate to media soft power. Effective soft power requires strategic intent, not word salad outputs.


No, *human relationships* can make humans do physical things. Language without social relational meaning is just mundane marketing copy.


Please explain its power to me. What is it powerfully affecting right now beyond hype and junk food media consumption?


Not everything America does is something that should be emulated. Great example of that is crypto. Please exercise some critical thinking instead of being a cheerleader.

Chat-GPT has trouble solving math problems.

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What you think is "reasoning" from GPT is what's referred to as simulacra in AI philosophy. We test reasoning by consistency of accuracy, not by coincidental accuracy. You really need to work on your literacy for this subject before you get comfortable passing judgments about which opinions have substance and which are hot air.


If you thought AI couldn't draw stick figures 2 years ago then you haven't been following this space for very long or very deeply.
I went through the history of his posts and all I can tell you is from the very beginning this fella @tacoburger has been doing just that spilling taco beans on this forum with his/her never ending spiel on why is China behind in this, why is China still using rocket tech that's toxic, why is China not emulating, not producing a Boston Dynamics level company, why is China not investing in GMO etc..This dude is just a pretender and in my opinion a loser trying to create some sort of panic or alarm that China is losing/laggards in many important technological forefronts. The person is a serious drama queen when he's just really being an alarmist troll.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
If I may say so, I think that ChatGPT is a very impressive piece of technology and is very useful but there is a chance that media has vastly exaggerated its capabilities. People are jumping the gun and calling it the next Industrial Revolution, which I think may very well be off the mark.

A lot of you were here in the forum back in the early 2010s when the forum really took off. Does anyone remember 3D printing and how hyped up that was? People were saying all sorts of crazy things like how traditional manufacturing is dead or that everyone will start printing guns and society will be at trouble. 3D printing is very impressive technologically, and it is very useful, especially when it comes to aerospace parts, but has it replaced traditional manufacturing? Are we all wearing 3D printed garments and driving 3D printed cars and living in 3D printed houses?

Then there came the hype with VR and augmented reality. That too was supposed to be the next Industrial Revolution, culminating in the fiasco known as META verse. How is that turning out now? Are people ditching tablets and TVs for VR headsets? Does everyone wear Google glasses?

I can’t attest for other professions but having working in software development for quite some time I can tell you right now that replacing developers with ChatGPT (I don’t care which version it is) is bogus. True, it could write stuff like pong games and implement complicated algorithms in record time, but software development is not just about coding. The job is about integrating requirements and finding faults and doing optimizations. A ChatGPT user who wants to create industry level software with it must know what he/she is doing in the first place in order to use it properly. Take a simple micro service for example since it is simple to explain. What kind of database do you need? What cloud service do you want to host your service on? What kind of encryption are you using? What’s the threshold for number of requests per minute should the service handle? What are the input parameters to the micro service and how should they be formatted? Are you passing them through headers, query parameters, or input body? If input body, do you want it to be data form or JSON formatted? Which version of SprintBoot are we using? Does the version of SpringBoot predate 2021? What libraries are we importing to perform sentiment analysis on the user input? And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

At least right now, it is a glorified version of StackOverflow, not a real developer.

In short, if you can get a complete novice to programming to type vague commands into ChatGPT and get a completely functional micro service up and running, I would be worried. Until then, it is merely a very successful tool that makes life easier for developers.
 

tacoburger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oh and it's not like LLM are the only A.I model that China missed the mark on. There's text to A.I, A.I voice generation, text to video, Aphlafold etc etc.
What's your background in terms of profession if you don't me asking?
Healthcare. Isn't that worse? I remember back in 2020, hearing about GTP-3 and all it can do, and thinking "Oh wow, this will be big" and all the promises that OpenA.I was making about GTP-4. PaLM was pretty impressive too. So why did it take until ChatGTP, for chinese A.I researchers to finally wake up and actually start racing? Since ChatGTP, there have been so much activity, not just in the Chinese A.I sector, but chinese companies in other fields asking A.I companies for A.I solutions. This activity should have been there since GTP-2 or one of it's copycats.

This is like the space race, but the Americans only became panicked after the soviets send Yuri Gagarin into space and dismissed Sputnik as an useless trinket that didn't do much more than bleep, which is true, but clearly Sputnik was just the first signs of something greater to come.
Weak minded person will always be the most alarmist of us all, and you're penchant for dramatic declarations showcase this pathetic sniveling weakness.
Go ahead and be complacent. If China's A.I sector actually reacted to GTP-2 or GTP-3 the same way they reacted to ChatGTP China wouldn't be in this position today.
China should have been a democracy so that they would have been super duper ahead of the curve against the U.S?
Or maybe they shouldn't have waited until America dropped a nuke(ChatGTP) on them before starting serious development of LLMs?
Where is the supporting data to support this claim?
Japanese is still more popular to learn than mandarin. And no kidding, when asked, people always give the reasoning of "I want to read more obscure manga/hentai or watch anime better"

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AI blended language outputs won't translate to media soft power. Effective soft power requires intent.
And this "intent" is used to churn out a thousand times more "CHINA BAD" new articles and youtube videos. It works.
Please explain its power to me.
1680142474167.png
No, *human relationships* can make humans do physical things. Language without social relational meaning is just mundane marketing copy.
Tell that to the largely popular A.I girlfriends apps that's already fucking with young lonely men. Or the thousands of "CHINA BAD" youtube videos that gain millions of views.
Weak minded person will always be the most alarmist of us all, and you're penchant for dramatic declarations showcase this pathetic sniveling weakness.
Better than pretending that everything is going to be okay and China has already won. Again, the results speak for themselves here. China is clearly not doing well in the A.I race, you got industry veterans admitting it, you can sit there and pretend everything is okay, or think of ways to solve it.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The first part of fixing a problem is acknowledging the that you have an issue.
The issue is that China had a much later start. Acknowledging the wrong issue like you are is no part of fixing anything.
And yes, I do feel a little smarter by thinking that GTP-3 was going to be a games changer, when chinese researchers were sleeping on it until ChatGTP slapped them in the face.
It takes very little to make stupid people feel smart. You think making a good guess makes you smart but the people who you are criticizing think that inventing the tech to defeat your rivals is what makes one smart. You're not even in their ball park.
One big issue. ChatGTP wasn't the first on the block. There was GTP-2 2018, GTP-3 2020, PaLM, LaMDA, flamingo, openAI codex, Megatron, Github copilot and other offshoots like text to image A.I. All released years before ChatGTP. But it wasn't until the immense mainstream success of ChatGTP that everyone in China began to take notice and actually started to hop on the LLM train. Why? Were they lazy? Did they think that LLM was a dead end? Did they not keep up with the advances in their own field? I find it supcisous that the first LLM to really go mainstream was the first one to catch the chinese A.I industry off guard.

A few companies like Huawei or Baidu were working on LLM, but they never released it to the public, or actually made use of it. And it's nothing compared to the dozens of companies currently working on ChatGTP clones in the last 5 months, or the interest in chinese companies asking for a ChatGTP clone for use in their business. Why did Baidu only sought to integrate ERNIE into their search engine after mircosoft announced that they would be integrating GTP-4 into Bing?
No no no. The best question is, if you're smart enough to criticize them, why haven't you invented something that puts China ahead of the Americans in a field that it isn't already? If you haven't a good answer to this, you just don't have the qualifications to talk down on anyone.
When A.I is concerned, a lag time of a few months might as well be a few years. Whoever gets AGI first leapfrogs a century ahead in a matter of months.
Uh, no, Mr. "Smart." A few months is not a few years is not a century. Wild exaggeration is a sign of those who are actually not so smart.
This is like being WWII, and not caring about who develop nukes first. Did Japan think that America was going to wait a few months to let them develop nukes before they got nuked?
No, this is actually not like WWII or nukes at all. This is like supercomputers and telecom, where we have the time to make a strategy, follow it through, and eventually overtake without freaking out like you.
Also, when development of A.I is based on data, being the first, locking in consumers and letting them generate all that sweet sweet data by using your A.I for you is only going to accelerate your lead.
That is a very small part of AI; there are swaths that don't rely on people playing with your program online.
Media isn't useless. It's soft power. People laugh at anime and hollywood until you realize that more people are learning Japanese than Mandarin purely for understanding anime and manga.
Soft power is fake and useless. The people who learn Japanese are losers in their culture and learn it to creep Japanese people out and pretend they live in cartoons. The people who learn Chinese do so for big business.
 

tacoburger

Junior Member
Registered Member
I went through the history of his posts and all I can tell you is from the very beginning this fella @tacoburger has been doing just that spilling taco beans on this forum with his/her never ending spiel on why is China behind in this, why is China still using rocket tech that's toxic, why is China not emulating, not producing a Boston Dynamics level company, why is China not investing in GMO etc..This dude is just a pretender and in my opinion a loser trying to create some sort of panic or alarm that China is losing/laggards in many important technological forefronts. The person is a serious drama queen when he's just really being an alarmist troll.
And yet people still can't give me a good reason. Again, this is simple logic here. Let me meme it for you, why I'm so worried.

GTP-2, GTP 3, PaLM, LaMDA, flamingo, openAI codex, Megatron, Github copilot: I sleep

ChatGTP: Real shit, entire A.I sector on fire within a month, dozens of ChatGTP clones coming right up, dozens of companies and startups created just to create LLMs, tens of thousands of business are looking to interagte LLMs into their products and business models

It's not even an issue of why China couldn't come up with their own LLM in the first place, it's that they couldn't even recognize the potential of LLM until it was so mainstream that it couldn't be ignored. This are supposed to be A.I researchers on the forefront. There's clearly something very wrong going in the industry if they could ignore PaLM or flamingo, two very impressive LLM that were on my radar when they came out even though I don't work in the A.I sector. PaLM was impressive in the way it could understand meta-reasoning behind jokes and memes, probably the closest to ChatGTP before ChatGTP came out.

I though that China was already making great progress on the LLM front since GTP-3 rocked the boat and with every development of google/deepmind/facebook's new LLM, but I just never heard about it. But it turns out that most of the major A.I players just didn't care?

It's not like they're doing well on other A.I fronts.

Sure LLM may not lead to AGI. But given their failure to even do recognize the potential of LLM, what hope do they have of actually innovating or even recognizing whatever revolutionary new A.I model that comes out of America before it's too late. Unless something changes, China is going to lose the A.I race for sure. And that's the most important technology race ever.

Sounds like a hater who wants to convince pro-Chinese to give up and embrace monkey see monkey do with the West as the model.
I would love it if China can actually can innovate instead of outright saying that they need to copy ChatGTP, as have many chinese A.I companies have.
The issue is that China had a much later start. Acknowledging the wrong issue like you are is no part of fixing anything.
And A.I was supposed to be the field where China and America were neck and neck. After all, the A.I winter stalled a lot of progress on this field. Deep learning was a pretty new development. It's a pretty even playing field I thought.

You think making a good guess makes you smart but the people who you are criticizing think that inventing the tech to defeat your rivals is what makes one smart. You're not even in their ball park.
I'm just saying how it is. I knew from 2020, that GTP-3 and it's successors were going to be a BIG deal. Chinese A.I sector didn't get the memo until ChatGTP in 2022. Excuse it however you want.
No no no. The best question is, if you're so smart, why haven't you invented something that puts China ahead of the Americans?
Probably because I don't have billions of dollars, an team of researchers and my own supercomputing center. The question is, why didn't those who did, start research back in 2020 when GTP-3 was making waves, instead of waiting until 2022 until ChatGTP exploded onto the scene?
Uh, no, Mr. "Smart." A few months is not a few years is not a century. Wild exaggeration is a sign of those who are no smart actually.
When dealing with AGI, a few months can catapult you a century ahead or behind. Nukes are the same.
No, this is actually not like WWII or nukes at all. This is like supercomputers and telecom, where we have the time to make a strategy, follow it through, and eventually overtake without freaking out like you.
Or someone gets AGI first, it upgrades itself over and over in a few days/weeks/months, becoming a ASI and proceeds to do whatever it wants? Not something you want your competitor to get first.
Soft power is fake and useless.
Soft power is very real. Just look at us, typing in English, giving more data for the whatever new AI OpenA.I is doing to dote out next.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
And this "intent" is used to churn out a thousand times more "CHINA BAD" new articles and youtube videos. It works.
More China BAD content isn’t going to change the persuasiveness of China BAD content. This space is already saturated. Quantity isn’t what makes this sort of content work, no more than running more ads makes people want to buy a product more than they already want or don’t want to.


Oh so it’s a glorified information terminal. I don’t see how that’s going to turn the US into a cyberpunk utopia or leave China in the dust of history.



Tell that to the largely popular A.I girlfriends apps that's already fucking with young lonely men. Or the thousands of "CHINA BAD" youtube videos that gain millions of views.
I mean, unless I’m missing something those guys don’t sound like they’re getting any closer to real action, except maybe with their right hand. That sort of AI mostly just sounds like a substitute for porn. If the future is sexbots how are you so sure that this kind of AI won’t just turn society towards unproductive degeneracy.
Better than pretending that everything is going to be okay and China has already won. Again, the results speak for themselves here. China is clearly not doing well in the A.I race, you got industry veterans admitting it, you can sit there and pretend everything is okay, or think of ways to solve it.
Lol no it isn’t. If you can’t distinguish between what’s useful innovation and what’s technological wanking you’re just playing the role of blind spectator. Uninformed panic doesn’t inspire urgency. It just inspires a lot a worthless noise.

Some “industry veterans” have things to say because they mostly do the talking not the work that happens in the background.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
And yet people still can't give me a good reason. Again, this is simple logic here. Let me meme it for you, why I'm so worried.

GTP-2, GTP 3, PaLM, LaMDA, flamingo, openAI codex, Megatron, Github copilot: I sleep

ChatGTP: Real shit, entire A.I sector on fire within a month, dozens of ChatGTP clones coming right up, dozens of companies and startups created just to create LLMs, tens of thousands of business are looking to interagte LLMs into their products and business models

It's not even an issue of why China couldn't come up with their own LLM in the first place, it's that they couldn't even recognize the potential of LLM until it was so mainstream that it couldn't be ignored. This are supposed to be A.I researchers on the forefront. There's clearly something very wrong going in the industry if they could ignore PaLM or flamingo, two very impressive LLM that were on my radar when they came out even though I don't work in the A.I sector. PaLM was impressive in the way it could understand meta-reasoning behind jokes and memes, probably the closest to ChatGTP before ChatGTP came out.

I though that China was already making great progress on the LLM front since GTP-3 rocked the boat and with every development of google/deepmind/facebook's new LLM, but I just never heard about it. But it turns out that most of the major A.I players just didn't care?

It's not like they're doing well on other A.I fronts.

Sure LLM may not lead to AGI. But given their failure to even do recognize the potential of LLM, what hope do they have of actually innovating or even recognizing whatever revolutionary new A.I model that comes out of America before it's too late. Unless something changes, China is going to lose the A.I race for sure. And that's the most important technology race ever.


I would love it if China can actually can innovate instead of outright saying that they need to copy ChatGTP, as have many chinese A.I companies have.

And A.I was supposed to be the field where China and America were neck and neck. After all, the A.I winter stalled a lot of progress on this field. Deep learning was a pretty new development. It's a pretty even playing field I thought.


I'm just saying how it is. I knew from 2020, that GTP-3 and it's successors were going to be a BIG deal. Chinese A.I sector didn't get the memo until ChatGTP in 2022. Excuse it however you want.

Probably because I don't have billions of dollars, an team of researchers and my own supercomputing center. The question is, why didn't those who did, start research back in 2020 when GTP-3 was making waves, instead of waiting until 2022 until ChatGTP exploded onto the scene?

When dealing with AGI, a few months can catapult you a century ahead or behind. Nukes are the same.

Or someone gets AGI first, it upgrades itself over and over in a few days/weeks/months, becoming a ASI and proceeds to do whatever it wants? Not something you want your competitor to get first.

Soft power is very real. Just look at us, typing in English, giving more data for the whatever new AI OpenA.I is doing to dote out next.
What are your thoughts on machine vision?

Guess you don't have any because it's not in the news.
 
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