News on China's scientific and technological development.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
mossen said:
Impressive, but sometimes the wind doesn't blow. Need a massive nuclear buildout since the backbone of any system is the baseload. Nuclear should go to 50% or more of total electricity output so that coal can be retired. I'm hopeful that Fusion might become viable in a few decades time given rapid advances, though fusion has long had delays.
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It looks like an overnight construction cost of $2000 per MW for nuclear is standard in China now.

You even see contracts being signed for 4 GW of nuclear plant for $7.5 Bn, which is even lower.
If revenue is 4.2c per KWh, with depreciation over 30 years, after operating costs, I get a financial return of 7.3% per year for this project.

That is decent enough, assuming 5% for cost of capital or the return required.
 
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SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
It looks like an overnight construction cost of $2000 per MW for nuclear is standard in China now.

You even see contracts being signed for 4 GW of nuclear plant for $7.5 Bn, which is even lower.
If revenue is 4.2c per KWh, with depreciation over 30 years, after operating costs, I get a financial return of 7.3% per year for this project.

That is decent enough, assuming 5% for cost of capital or the return required.
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The return can be higher if carbon pricing is factored in.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
mossen said:
Impressive, but sometimes the wind doesn't blow. Need a massive nuclear buildout since the backbone of any system is the baseload. Nuclear should go to 50% or more of total electricity output so that coal can be retired. I'm hopeful that Fusion might become viable in a few decades time given rapid advances, though fusion has long had delays.
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Wind turbines are usually built in areas with steady supply of wind all year round. The bigger problem is with the wind blowing too fast (over the operational envelope), which forces them to lock down the blades.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
gadgetcool5 said:
What concerns me is that the US has done pretty much everything it can to signal that it is going to ban suppliers of the C919 if it ever becomes successful, and that it might ban C919 suppliers just for the heck of it, yet there is no peep from China of seeking alternative backup suppliers. The latest reports from the government of aviation goals just mention increasing support for the C919 project but nothing about indigenization and preparing for further sanctions. If China is smart it should have a backup plan in case the US bans C919 suppliers.

Similar to how SMIC is still buying lithography machines from ASML and SMEE's sales did not increase in 2021 despite massive spending by SMIC to increase capacity. There are even news articles on how the US is on the brink of further sanctions on SMIC, yet I don't see more urgency by SMIC to better integrate SMEE's existing machines, like it's SSA600, into its ecosystem.

China's chance for indigenization is now, worse sanctions are coming down the road. They should be preparing backup plans full speed ahead, and that includes of course alternative suppliers for the C919, ARJ21 and CR929.
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where did you read that SMEE sales did not increase in 2021?

these bold statements should be sourced.
 
Deino

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
citycitycity said:
The United States is artful at inventing an idiosyncratic version of why *this particular* company has been sanctioned and is able to give out export licenses ever so slightly to create doubt as to whether it is serious to ultimately, always be able to create an asymmetric dependence. Heck, even Huawei wants to go back to American suppliers even after all the US did to it.

The R&D cycles for avionics and engines are so long that ultimately, the "backup plan" even when realized would take decades. The CJ-1000A has been hypothesized for years now and still, no progress at all.

That would take money, labor and time SMIC doesn't have (SMIC runs tight margins anyway). And given that the existence of the SMEE ArF immersion is up in the air (even Global Times deleted their SMEE ArF immersion article), trying to spend inordinate amounts of time on retooling low-margin lines is something private corporate companies will not do since money triumphs in business, even if it is harmful for national interest outcomes.

Looks like American capture of China's corporate elites is deep.
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Just take this as a strict warning! you are new here but your style of posting and even more the topics you are following are exactly the same to a well known troll, who was banned already several times. Therefore there is a very strong feeling that you are also the same ...

If these purely political posts only meant to provoke around and criticise the US system I will ban you right without any further warning!
 
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