New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

mossen said:

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The Germans are down but not out. I think they have a shot at avoiding the fate of the Japanese carmakers, but it's really late in the game now. They've made a few investments in recent weeks that could help turn this ship around. But I am doubtful if they will ever regain the crown again. I suspect not.

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I think people really need to re-frame the situation.

VW and other legacy car manufacturers are not "late". It's Chinese EVs and Tesla that are early. 90% of car manufacturers are legacy automakers who have transitioned too slowly, they are the rule not the exception.

I also think people are overestimating the future demise of Japanese automakers. In China, and some markets, sure, but there's plenty of markets where EV sales are slow (United States, just as an example.)

tphuang said:

Why does it matter what people on this forum think? The Chinese EV community at large that follow this stuff would know a lot more on Chinese EVs. People on this forum are the most nationalist you are likely to find who are anti-US/India.

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This is a really poor attitude. Especially for a mod. I quite enjoy your posts, but you are dismissive way in a way that's borderline rude way too often.

HighGround said:

This is a really poor attitude. Especially for a mod. I quite enjoy your posts, but you are dismissive way in a way that's borderline rude way too often.

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Just so that this doesn't drag on rest of this thread. If you have a general problem with how I moderate, feel free to PM me. If you disagree with my point on this thread, then please reply while stay on the topic of NEVs. If you start doing generalizations, then you are just going off topic. Please stay on this topic of NEVs

HighGround said:

I think people really need to re-frame the situation.

VW and other legacy car manufacturers are not "late". It's Chinese EVs and Tesla that are early. 90% of car manufacturers are legacy automakers who have transitioned too slowly, they are the rule not the exception.

I also think people are overestimating the future demise of Japanese automakers. In China, and some markets, sure, but there's plenty of markets where EV sales are slow (United States, just as an example.)

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Well, by that argument legacy horse carriage manufactures were not "late" to motor coach revolution, rather that Daimler-Benz, Ford and GM were early. It just so happens that by the time most horse carriage manufactures understood the magnitude of the transition, motor coach market was already divided and technological barriers already set up.

However, you are right regarding the overall speed of the EV transition. Since cars are long-term durable goods they tend to hang around for decades, so EV revolution will not be as fast as mobile internet/smartphone revolution. However, just like any other technological product, brand loyalty on cars is highly dependent on features, performance, and price. Thus, by the time the user upgrades his car from ICE to EV a decade or so down the line, the early birds with their more advanced vehicles will most likely win the day.

EDIT: it wouldn't even need a decade. The technological gap can already be heard from a mile away today:

GodRektsNoobs said:

Well, by that argument legacy horse carriage manufactures were not "late" to motor coach revolution, rather that Daimler-Benz, Ford and GM were early. It just so happens that by the time most horse carriage manufactures understood the magnitude of the transition, motor coach market was already divided and technological barriers already set up.

However, you are right regarding the overall speed of the EV transition. Since cars are long-term durable goods they tend to hang around for decades, so EV revolution will not be as fast as mobile internet/smartphone revolution. However, just like any other technological product, brand loyalty on cars is highly dependent on features, performance, and price. Thus, by the time the user upgrades his car from ICE to EV a decade or so down the line, he will probably choose the early movers as they most likely sell the most fleshed out features for value.

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A few other points to consider

- Charging networks are still in their infancy, gasoline cars will still have a role to play for road trips, leading to next point

- Role of PHEVs, Toyota believes PHEVs still gives them an opportunity to make a big dent in the NEV market. They are probably right. BYD and Li Auto sales are indicators. If a PHEV has 100 - 150 Km electric range, it will cover 95% of most day to day use cases. The problem with Hybrids has always been expense. Essentially you are shoving 2 powertrains into a car, so it's basically a double cost. As the EV market matures, the EV parts will become more cost effective.

- I also think it's too early to count a company as big as Toyota out. It's silly, a company of that size commands a lot of gravity. However, the Chinese competition has seized the opening provided by EVs and it is like Pandora's box.

- GM is early in design and product roadmapping, but their yields are shhhhh.... Just today the news that they will replace the Bolt with an "Ultium" (name of their battery pack) based version, but everyone knows their Ultium production is way, way behind. My dad wanted so bad to buy a Cadillac Lyriq AWD after getting spam for it, but the ETA given to him by the dealer was "probably not soon". Even now I have only ever seen one in my neighborhood. Yet I see older Bolt and Polestar 2 quite commonly (of course Tesla is a given).

GodRektsNoobs said:

Well, by that argument legacy horse carriage manufactures were not "late" to motor coach revolution, rather that Daimler-Benz, Ford and GM were early. It just so happens that by the time most horse carriage manufactures understood the magnitude of the transition, motor coach market was already divided and technological barriers already set up.

However, you are right regarding the overall speed of the EV transition. Since cars are long-term durable goods they tend to hang around for decades, so EV revolution will not be as fast as mobile internet/smartphone revolution. However, just like any other technological product, brand loyalty on cars is highly dependent on features, performance, and price. Thus, by the time the user upgrades his car from ICE to EV a decade or so down the line, the early birds with their more advanced vehicles will most likely win the day.

EDIT: it wouldn't even need a decade. The technological gap can already be heard from a mile away today:

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Toyota is truly the Ma Baoguo of NEVs.

BMW Group opened a new R&D facility in last week. It has R&D facilities in 17 countries. China is the only country outside Germany with full-process R&D capabilities. The facilities and processes in are as advanced as those at the carmaker's headquarters...

supersnoop said:

A few other points to consider

- Role of PHEVs, Toyota believes PHEVs still gives them an opportunity to make a big dent in the NEV market. They are probably right. BYD and Li Auto sales are indicators. If a PHEV has 100 - 150 Km electric range, it will cover 95% of most day to day use cases. The problem with Hybrids has always been expense. Essentially you are shoving 2 powertrains into a car, so it's basically a double cost. As the EV market matures, the EV parts will become more cost effective.

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Enhance-range EV don't have two powertrains. The gasoline engine onboard is used to generate electricity to charge the batteries and drive the electric motor. Enhance-range EV are very efficient because the gasoline engine can run at its peak efficiency.

vincent said:

Enhance-range EV don't have two powertrains. The gasoline engine onboard is used to generate electricity to charge the batteries and drive the electric motor. Enhance-range EV are very efficient because the gasoline engine can run at its peak efficiency.

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There are certain power bands for basically all EREV, PHEV, etc. where the gasoline engine does actually connect to the wheels and is used for propulsion. Usually part of the highway driving. This simplifies the transmission a lot, but ultimately it is 2 powertrains. Better than the conversion losses going from mechanical to electrical back to mechanical.

GM Volt did this (the original), BYD DM-series continues to do this as well. I'm not an expert in engine efficiency calculations (Carnot cycle? Rankine cycle? blah), but I assume those automotive engineers know.

Even if we don't consider it as a powertrain. It is still excess mechanical complexity vs. pure EV or pure gasoline.

supersnoop said:

There are certain power bands for basically all EREV, PHEV, etc. where the gasoline engine does actually connect to the wheels and is used for propulsion. Usually part of the highway driving. This simplifies the transmission a lot, but ultimately it is 2 powertrains. Better than the conversion losses going from mechanical to electrical back to mechanical.

GM Volt did this (the original), BYD DM-series continues to do this as well. I'm not an expert in engine efficiency calculations (Carnot cycle? Rankine cycle? blah), but I assume those automotive engineers know.

Even if we don't consider it as a powertrain. It is still excess mechanical complexity vs. pure EV or pure gasoline.

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Li Auto enhanced range EV‘s gas engine doesn’t drive the vehicle at all

Hydrogen is more viable for heavy commercial vehicles.

A very efficient way to recycle lithium:

New chips for NEV:

MCUs, also known as single-chip microcomputers, are chips that integrate the central processing unit, read-only memory, random-access memory, and various types of peripheral interfaces, particularly designed to control and perform specific tasks.

CCFC3008PT can be used in the electronics powertrain, chassis controller, and power battery controller and should help alleviate a shortage of mid-to-high-end MCUs in China’s new energy vehicle industry, C*Core Tech added.

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Blockbuster numbers of China's car exports in H1, NEVs more than one third: