New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
The point in question is CATL. Why don't you talk about it?
I think you can try to be more open minded about other's interpretation of events, especially as it pertains to Chinese society and politics. Not sure why you double downed on CATL, which is a great example that disproves your point that Chinese leaders will/should just let Chinese companies behave like western capitalists companies and chase the bottom line.

CATL, whose name is pretty meaningless in English is actually 宁德时代, literally meaning the age of Ningde (a small
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in Fujian). Guess who (re)started his political career as the party secretary of Ningde, pro tip: it starts with
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. The naming symbolism is as obvious as Huawei's. This top political leader later climbed through the ranks and eventually became party secretary of Fujian, establishing a powerful base there. I hope you are not naive enough to believe that Xi and his power base doesn't have any personal connections and interests in the Ningde/Fujian region.

As Temstar pointed out, Xi publicly warned Robin Zeng about the risks of CATL expansion, which obviously has a clear personal element, i.e., don't mess up the legacy of the town under Xi and his protégé's governance.
 
Last edited:
We told you countless times India would harass and eventually rob the BYD of the investments. There are too many similar cases in the recent times. US ironically is less likely so we will see how that one goes.

Now I am not sure if Xi think the same as us, but he is clearly concerned about something regarding the rapid expansion. We cannot read his mind but he certainly feel concerned enough to voice it personally.
it was India gov't that rejected the deal

They didn't avoid the bus deal. Indian govt caved at the end. BYD knows how to play ball

Who is nobody? On this forum? Because I can assure you there are plenty of people concerned about hurdles facing BYD in Europe if you listen to various Chinese EV podcast.

With India, you are just dealing with different types of risks. You have to figure out how to get money out faster and how to charge more for those subsystems that you will be supplying to your assembly plant

India is a 4million+ market. Europe is around 3 to 4x that


If you agree that CATL shouldn't be worried that Ford might become a competitor, then there is basically no risk other than spending some resources in helping Ford setup the plant, which presumably will be paying money to Chinese toolmakers for usage in factory.


I need to based my judgement on what Xi thinks? It's pretty obvious by now that Chinese govt has severely underestimated the rapid adoption of EVs and the fast evolution of Chinese battery & EV industry.

Now, let's think about it this way.

NIO spends a lot of money build its NIO houses & battery swap stations in Europe, but because European automakers are at home, NIO gets sued on ES6 and loses it and can't use that logo anymore. It's struggling to gain any traction, probably losing money heavily in its EU operation. Same with XPeng. If NIO and/or XPeng gives up in Europe, nobody on this forum will bat an eye on this attempt because Europeans didn't steal anything from them.

Now let's say BYD eventually does spend $1Billion to setup a CKD plant in India. It sells 100k/year and makes $5000 per car. In 2 year, it makes back it's investment either through direct profit or profits of the supply chain it controls that are exported to Indian factory. But if gets factory shutdown and force to sell in 3rd year, people will be outraged on this forum. But in the end, it still made money.

BYD just needs to be careful and establish derisking safeguard when dealing with US given how unhinge and devious the US administrations have become.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Xi's warning is as clear as someone could get from a Chinese politician. In fact, as far as I remember this is one of the very few times (maybe the first?, sorry not good memory) I have heard such a clear cut direct warning from him on a specific company.

If I was you, I wouldnt take this lightly. He has access to far more information than your average Joe or BYD's CEO. What do you think that Wang Yi talks about with his Indian counterpart every once in a while? Do you think that behind the doors there aren't frank discussions between China and India?

So if Xi urges caution, you better listen up because it means that the foreign affairs apparatus has warned him about it.
This is not an economic issue, its geopolitics/foreign affairs
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
BYD avoided the unfavorable deal proposed, and that is good.

I meant nobody on the forum at least. The point being about some people here question risk of foriegn market, chiefly US and India, and showed concern on this forum. That was the reason I mentioned that.
Why does it matter what people on this forum think? The Chinese EV community at large that follow this stuff would know a lot more on Chinese EVs. People on this forum are the most nationalist you are likely to find who are anti-US/India.
I think it is more fair to compare the revenue of the car market, due to EU buy higher end cars, in which EU should be around 18x the size.

You don't have to agree with him, and he is not infallible, but he as the president of China have some credibility to say the least. He has access lots of information regard geopolitical risks and Chinese government policies. He must have seen the growth of industry by now even if the government underestimated previously. Nevertheless, he still urges caution. It would be foolish to disregard his assessment even if he is not infallible.
lol, so you have no argument on the CATL deal except Xi said to be careful.
Assuming they made money unlike Foxccon of course. And assuming they did make money, would that money be better spent elsewhere?
What do you think they've been doing for 16 years in India? They've been selling thousands of buses and commercial vehicles in the past year in India. How can they not be making money. You can look up Olectra twitter account. There is a lot of bus sales there. Here is an example of 400 eTruck sales
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

There are risks to every large market and India is a growing market that you have to decide on the risks. In all these markets that BYD enters, it's investing enormous amount of money to build local sales network. All that money are wasted if BYD at some pt decides their cars are not getting enough orders.

Yet, people are only concerned when you have a plant in India & end up having to sell it for pennies to Indian company.

Of course, it's bad when you have to do that, but it's bad anytime you have to pull out of any market for commercial or political reasons.
Xi's warning is as clear as someone could get from a Chinese politician. In fact, as far as I remember this is one of the very few times (maybe the first?, sorry not good memory) I have heard such a clear cut direct warning from him on a specific company.

If I was you, I wouldnt take this lightly. He has access to far more information than your average Joe or BYD's CEO. What do you think that Wang Yi talks about with his Indian counterpart every once in a while? Do you think that behind the doors there aren't frank discussions between China and India?

So if Xi urges caution, you better listen up because it means that the foreign affairs apparatus has warned him about it.
This is not an economic issue, its geopolitics/foreign affairs
Yes, Chinese govt needs to be protecting the interests of its own companies.

But again, the warning is for CATL in America. It's not for BYD in India. It's not good to confuse 2 issues.

It's also important that when we scream about risks going to India, we also think about risks going to other markets. Not every overseas market are Thailand or Brazil

BYD just needs to be careful and establish derisking safeguard when dealing with US given how unhinge and devious the US administrations have become.
BYD is not entering US market with PVs. That's CATL. BYD has a successful commercial vehicle & ESS operation that it is wise to keep silent about.

The only PV market that I would caution BYD to no go into is US, because that will likely trigger wider sanctions and hurt its existing profitable operation in America
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
View attachment 116333

Well, Li outdid Tesla weekly? Iirc it's the first time ever. Congrats to them, that's quite an achievement.
Still far from threatening German 3, however.

Well, probably based on this news Li ADR shares are at a 52 week high
Of course stupid me, I put money into NIO and XPEV because I thought their technology was more interesting
Those shares prices are still swirling around the toilet
 
Top