New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

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AndrewS

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Gloire_bb said:
Sorta agree on Han - it actually looks better in life than on photos. But Seal is world-level design, it just 'takes eyes' from other byds when it's present.

The main problem here is that Nio exists - because from et7 onwards all their models are consistently among the worlds' best looking mass market cars, both from inside and outside.
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You see NIO models winning "best car" awards in various places, so it's not just the aesthetics, but the whole car package.

And I think BYD can handle the competition from NIO.
They provide BYD a benchmark to aim at, and BYD do have the resources to match NIO.

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But at this time, I think it still makes sense for NIO and BYD to avoid competing with each other, as:
1. it's easier to take market share from ICE vehicles
2. competing directly with each other will hurt both sides, and they're only just reaching or have reached profitability

If I have a look at premium car sales in China, I see the following sales figures for 2021

BMW - 833K
Mercedes - 782K
Audi - 696K
Lexus - 105K

That's over 2.4 million premium model cars per year, of which the vast majority are combustion engine cars. So there's a lot of opportunity here. EDIT. I see that the highest selling model is the 5-series with only 172K annual sales, so there's a lot of premium EV models to develop still.

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1. BMW's first dedicated EV platform is only due in 2025.

2. Mercedes' 1st-gen platform is only used for large cars in the niche EQ range. Their 2nd-gen platform isn't due till 2025

3. Audi look in a better position with multiple EV platforms already developed

4. Lexus look screwed as there is no EV platform in the pipeline

In comparison, both BYD and NIO have already launched their 2nd gen EV-only platforms
 
tphuang

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“老司机驾新车”

Q：BYD对于钠电的定位？

锂只要在20w以上，我们还是会做钠电的，定位在续航低一些的车型用，这块也是对锂的补充，不会成为主流的路线。

另外就是循环寿命做到5000次左右，我们也有准备推出储能钠电，另外就是二轮车市场的大圆柱也会做。

Q：中试的进度？

其实现在中试都刚开始安排，12月安排，还要测试，我们电池动力上要有A、B、C、D样，一般可以做A、B就可以，我们比较快。

A样手工样件，基本性能、电芯做出来测一下，测试几个包，做几个国标认证，装车pack的认证，做A样测试同步测试B样，投入量更大，因为有A样验证的初步结果，有些阻抗、初步结果出来，B样改善优化一下，放大量投入2w支左右，A样就2000支左右。

到了B样对应电池包数量就50w量左右，同时电芯pack层面测试，配方设计方案优化一些。A样B样基本是同步的，所以基本要2023年6月左右所有的结果才能有初步的结果，才可以决定23年第一款搭载车型

Q：下游应用？

海鸥a00级别的新车去用，上市会晚一些

LFP续航400公里，钠电300公里，可以等钠电一起做，本来二季度要上市，但是时间太赶了，也不排除有可能。只要前面a样跑了一百圈问题不大的话可以比较激进的推，但是可能如果测试不太理想，要等到3Q在上市。

但是节奏要求很快，希望2Q要上，只要前期做的数据结果都可以，前面有些结果出来有信心，能量密度可能很快会有结论，pack很快能匹配起来。但是跑了1000次左右，可以有底气可以同步。

但是量产交付会比较慢，要到3Q末才会交付。

Q：车的定价？钠电版本vs锂电版本？

目前的材料成本其实和锂电差不多，650元/kwh，系统要做到1.5，790元。其实比较贵，没有优势，但是到23年年底或者24年我们这边车装的快也没用，因为这个产业链还没有装好，我们目标是大批量装车的时候，一度电降低到500，只要640元/系统，比锂电的750元/系统相比还是便宜110。

海鸥6w-8w，应该就是钠电6w，锂电8w。

我们推的风险就是1）能量密度，上游材料突破不达预期，低能量密度和成本没有优势，性价比没有锂电高，明年上半年都达不到锂电的性价比，尤其是23年上半年可能锂电会降价，可能就更没有性价比；2）到23-25年如果有超预期的产能贡献，那成本降低到接近20w的时候，我们的优势也会不明显，所以对于钠电的态度也是要边走边看的，也是要看那点本身规模放量降本的速度，其实短期很难提升到，应该要25年左右，中期的时间，但是基于现在成熟的材料，把成本降低下来也是可以的，但是这个速度不一定能赶上这个速度。钠电降低到1.5可能更快，那么性价比还是可以的。可以超过铁锂，消费者定价也会买单，信心也更强，如果24-25年更要看碳酸锂降价的速度，如果还是在40w的高位，其实还是可以进一步推进降本，其实到26年之前锂电始终高位，钠电就有窗口期去玩，可能到时候钠电就算做到高能量密度，但是也只能在小众的车型，低速车a0级别应用，相比锂电还是便宜。
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Some Q&A on BYD with sodium ion battery. Given the news from SVOLT and Farasis today, it's good to bring out BYD's progress here also. I do consider CATL to be the leader here. Shouldn't be a surprise that ESS, two seater as well as lower end A00 models are the first applications for Sodium ion battery. Longer term, you can put SIB on most mass market cars if their energy density can reach 200 Wh/kg at pack level. That along with fast charging and greater cycle is a wining combination. They just need time for technology to become mature and to build supply chain and such.

It's kind of just stupid to see certain politicians treating Lithium like it's the new oil. It really isn't. The key is toward expertise in chemistry, building supply chain, ramping production and testing/deployment. But I guess that's too hard for politicians to understand. As long as lithium carbonate prices are above 20k RMB/kg, Sodium ion batteries will be worthwhile. And as time comes on and sodium ion battery supply chain becomes mature, they can probably be cheaper than LFP at even lower Lithium prices.
 
Blitzo

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Gloire_bb said:
Sorta agree on Han - it actually looks better in life than on photos. But Seal is world-level design, it just 'takes eyes' from other byds when it's present.

The main problem here is that Nio exists - because from et7 onwards all their models are consistently among the worlds' best looking mass market cars, both from inside and outside.
Click to expand...

I might be in the minority, but I am actually not a huge fan of the Nio design language.

The headlights and front-end "face" of Nio cars are much too off putting.
Give me a Han any day of the week.
 
X

xypher

Senior Member
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AndrewS said:
How do those 2 articles relate to BYD extending their lead?
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The last article has nothing to do with BYD. Maybe the investors finally found out that Tesla's stock price has been extremely overinflated (still is) but most likely it is connected to Musk's clown fiesta around Twitter since the stock market has long been decoupled from the objective metrics.
 
A

ansy1968

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NiuBiDaRen said:
How would you guys evaluate NIO's sustainability and future success?
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Bro, Apple car killer, IF ever the Vaporware Apple Car came to being in 2024 what niche will they occupy? ;) Nio had taken their mantle and it will be a hard sell except for those brainwash Apple fanboy....lol
 
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