New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

supercat said:

1 GWh can power 10,000-15,000 passenger EVs. So 30 GWh is enough for 300,000-450,000 EVs.

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For BMW, they will need larger battery packs. They have big cars that need to go faster. Let's say 80 to 120 KWh, so more like 250 to 375k. That maybe enough for them in America or it might not be. They have averaged a little over 300k a year here. If we add in Canada, maybe closer to 350k a year.

The current EV market in China reminds me a lot about China smartphone market circa ~2013. Back then, there were a huge number of start-ups and way too many players. Everyone was losing money hand-over-fist even if innovation was very rapid. Similar story here (except BYD and a few other stand-outs).

Once consolidation began, it didn't take long to clear the field until we got a few lucky winners (Xiaomi, BBK etc). I suspect the same applies here. The EV market is long overdue for a rationalisation.

mossen said:

The current EV market in China reminds me a lot about China smartphone market circa ~2013. Back then, there were a huge number of start-ups and way too many players. Everyone was losing money hand-over-fist even if innovation was very rapid. Similar story here (except BYD and a few other stand-outs).

Once consolidation began, it didn't take long to clear the field until we got a few lucky winners (Xiaomi, BBK etc). I suspect the same applies here. The EV market is long overdue for a rationalisation.

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One fundamental difference is SOE (state owned enterprises).

The next big difference is the local governments.

The consumer electronics market has been whole-country-wide since its inception, while the consumer auto market has been quasi-country-wide since 1980s.

Majority of the private car manufacturing companies will be consolidated by the market. But those SOEs in car manufacturing will strive for survival until a top-down gov-driven consolation happens, like what happened between SAIC and Nanjing with MG legacy assets.

Just for fun:
BYD
SAIC
GAIC
FAW
Geely

would be my top 5 domestic picks along with their respective JVs. Tesla, VW and BBA would be my top foreign brands. Before TW is liberated.

China registers 415 million motor vehicles, 500 million drivers​

China had approximately 415 million motor vehicles and more than 500 million motor-vehicle drivers at the end of November 2022, both ranking first in the world, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Public Security (MPS) Thursday.

Among the licensed motor-vehicle drivers, 463 million were car drivers, the official data showed.

In recent years, China's automobile ownership has increased by more than 20 million annually, with the total number reaching 318 million at the end of November, the MPS said.

Chinese licensed drivers have maintained an average annual increase of 25 million since 2014. Currently, one in two Chinese adults holds a driving license. The number of drivers under the age of 25 hit 54.48 million, accounting for 10.9 percent of the total.

The number of licensed drivers in rural China has grown fast in recent years, with an annual increase of more than 13 million. About 289 million rural residents obtained driving licenses, accounting for 57.8 percent of the total number across the country, the MPS said.

At the same time, the number of motor vehicles in rural areas hit 208 million, of which 140 million were automobiles, accounting for 50.2 percent and 44.1 percent of the country's total, respectively.

Tesla needs to find a way out of its weak sales in China either by cutting prices or exports.

China’s core advantage today is that it is perhaps the only country that can consistently manufacture two-tier products: premium products for the G7 economies and “good enough” products for the G77 markets. More specifically, it can do both tiers at scale, from smart phones to EVs.

escobar said:

China’s core advantage today is that it is perhaps the only country that can consistently manufacture two-tier products: premium products for the G7 economies and “good enough” products for the G77 markets. More specifically, it can do both tiers at scale, from smart phones to EVs.

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I wouldn’t call some of the Chinese cars introduced to the SEA markets as being ‘good enough’ Many of them are equal if not better than some of their counterparts at a lower price range. Just because they are cheap doesn’t mean they are ‘good enough’

It is strange. If Chinese auto industry expand this fast it would create a collapse of auto industry in western nations like Japan, Germany, maybe US. It is an actual national security issues yet somehow US don't care and only care about Huawei?

TK3600 said:

It is strange. If Chinese auto industry expand this fast it would create a collapse of auto industry in western nations like Japan, Germany, maybe US. It is an actual national security issues yet somehow US don't care and only care about Huawei?

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Slow on the uptake.

Maybe next year they will finally release what BYD is gonna become, and then start trying to sanction/tariff it etc.

TK3600 said:

It is strange. If Chinese auto industry expand this fast it would create a collapse of auto industry in western nations like Japan, Germany, maybe US. It is an actual national security issues yet somehow US don't care and only care about Huawei?

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China is absent from the US market and Americans have no knowledge of or interest in what is happening elsewhere. The American automotive market is enormous but also quite insular.