New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

AndrewS

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Both NIO and Xpeng nearly went bankrupt not so long ago, but got capital infusion from a couple of Chinese provinces if memory serves. If they were to fail, I don't think it says much about the Chinese auto sector. Building new car companies at scale is exceptionally hard. Before Tesla, the last mainstream carmaker was Ford. I'm not counting niche companies that only create a few supercars.

It is a very capital-intensive business. BYD built up their advantage in batteries before starting to make EVs. Huawei had other businesses before they went into EVs. NIO and Xpeng have no such fallback. Even Tesla nearly went bankrupt - twice! - before they became steadily profitable.

The odds are simply not in favour of car start-ups and China has many of them. Several will probably have to die at some point.

Yep. I reckon a minimum of 80% failure rate rate.

Look at what happened with the smartphone industry which used to have hundreds of Chinese manufacturers. Now we're down to a handful.

I reckon at least 80% of automakers won't make it.
 

GodRektsNoobs

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Maybe

But more likely one of the bigger carmakers will buy them
I think Xpeng's XNGP would be quite sought after by any traditional automaker in the scenario if they go under. Their operating system as well.


Seems GWM has landed in Europe. I hope they can succeed, because they are rapidly losing sales in the Chinese domestic market due to chip scandal and terrible marketing.
 

tphuang

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The big news from yesterday was the official unveiling of the yangwang high end brand.

on top of that, there is also launching of a highly specialized and personalized new brand
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It is getting confusing to me why they need so many brand.

IIRC, they are launching 1 new dynasty series model and 1 new ocean series model soon.

also, there is some kind of announcement for Brazil tomorrow. No idea what.
 

4Runner

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Auto Makers Shift to Lower-Cost Batteries for Electric Vehicles​


[Comments]
This is significant. WSJ published this piece for the US domestic audiences. It sounds grudgingly that Chinese battery vendors had the foresights in advancing LFP use cases in automobile. And it accepts grudgingly that US will have to reply on Chinese battery vendors to supply LFP batteries to the US EV makers. Now with IRA in the middle, how would those US EV makers square this circle?

I guess US will find necessary "exceptions" that allow the US EV makers to go on before they can find any alternative. Huh, decoupling ...... from China or BYD or GM or Ford ???
 

tphuang

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1800 D1 orders in Mexico. I think they got 1000 earlier this year from Vemo so this is a big jump.
Also XPeng is considering blade battery on their 600 km range of G9. I don't see XPeng lasting much longer so not sure if this is meaningful. However, BYD buying out XPeng in the future might make sense for their self driving technology.

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Auto Makers Shift to Lower-Cost Batteries for Electric Vehicles​


[Comments]
This is significant. WSJ published this piece for the US domestic audiences. It sounds grudgingly that Chinese battery vendors had the foresights in advancing LFP use cases in automobile. And it accepts grudgingly that US will have to reply on Chinese battery vendors to supply LFP batteries to the US EV makers. Now with IRA in the middle, how would those US EV makers square this circle?

I guess US will find necessary "exceptions" that allow the US EV makers to go on before they can find any alternative. Huh, decoupling ...... from China or BYD or GM or Ford ???
US administration is clueless. Now, they've moved onto securing supply chain by locking up lithium or finding cobalt/nickel mining assets. The technology is way beyond that now. This is not oil. It's up to private companies to develop new technology, supply chain and metal processing. We are going to move to sodium ion battery for cheaper cars and energy storage. you don't need to lock up lithium mining for that.
 

supercat

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NIO ET7 scores five stars in Euro NCAP and Green NCAP ratings​

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Guoxuan (Gotion High-tech's parent company) will start mass production of a 230Wh/kg LFP battery this year. Gotion High-tech will build a $2.3 billion battery plant in Michigan.

China's NEV battery production may more than double by 2024.

China's NEV charging pile doubled YoY.
 

tphuang

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A little more on BYD semiconductor direction.
As posted a while back, BYD has fabs in Ningbo, Changsha and Jinan
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Jinan is their major one with 3 phases. All except the 3rd phase has been planned with 8-inch wafers. The Changsha fab only started operations 2 months ago.
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The Jinan one started earlier this year and will have capacity of 30k wpm by the end. Not sure about phase 2 and 3 capacity yet.

Here is two article looking at their decision to give up on BYD semiconductor listing.
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What's interesting is how their revenue has jumped
2021年比亚迪半导体营业收入达到14.4亿元,在国内新能源乘用车电机驱动控制器用IGBT模块中,比亚迪半导体过去两年的市场占有率达到19%,仅次于英飞凌
今年第一季度,比亚迪半导体可实现营收11.15亿至11.85亿元,与上年同期相比变动幅度为111.72%-125.01%。其预计该季度可实现归母净利润6100万至8000万元,与上年同期相比变动幅度为1.03%-32.50%
为了扩大晶圆产能,在IPO材料收审期间,比亚迪投资实施了济南功率半导体产能建设项目,这一项目目前已成功投产,产能爬坡情况良好。而在济南项目基础上,进一步增加大额投资,预计对比亚迪半导体未来资产和业务结构产生较大影响,因此决定终止IPO。
so it seems like they are really expanding quickly. the revenue has grown really fast in first half of the this year. and they really need to invest to expand their production since they are buying a lot from Silan and other chip makers.

They are committed to building their semiconductor base in Jinan and have now registered a firm to do technology development.
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The other interesting part is their investment into Chengdu. Back a couple of months ago, BYD met with Sichuan party chief to discuss semiconductor production and then they registered a new subsidiary in Chengdu for 100 million RMB. It looks like they are taking over the former fab location of Tsinghua Unigroup (紫光集团) who had a dram fab out there. Given that 1.59 billion RMB has been transferred here for the ownership of this place, it seems like BYD is taking over a pretty large fab and need to invest a lot more money to ramp up production here. It's not clear to me if this represents BYD intention in getting into non-auto chip sectors (or at least areas outside of MCU and IGBT)
 
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