Both NIO and Xpeng nearly went bankrupt not so long ago, but got capital infusion from a couple of Chinese provinces if memory serves. If they were to fail, I don't think it says much about the Chinese auto sector. Building new car companies at scale is exceptionally hard. Before Tesla, the last mainstream carmaker was Ford. I'm not counting niche companies that only create a few supercars.
It is a very capital-intensive business. BYD built up their advantage in batteries before starting to make EVs. Huawei had other businesses before they went into EVs. NIO and Xpeng have no such fallback. Even Tesla nearly went bankrupt - twice! - before they became steadily profitable.
The odds are simply not in favour of car start-ups and China has many of them. Several will probably have to die at some point.
Yep. I reckon a minimum of 80% failure rate rate.
Look at what happened with the smartphone industry which used to have hundreds of Chinese manufacturers. Now we're down to a handful.
I reckon at least 80% of automakers won't make it.