from NIO Q1 earnings call. Expecting to sell 12k in June. The margins are down big time due to higher battery prices. They are hoping to raise production on the current plant to 20k per month by end of this year + Neo phase 2 plant (entering production in Q3) will hopefully hit 10k. They are talking about a mass market brand in the 200k to 300k range, but that won't be ready until H2 2024. To me, NIO is making progress way too slowly. When we look at the leaders board for May, there are so many automakers at 10k, but NIO just isn't up there.
Looks like BYD only announced its battery deliveries for Tesla after it was able to meet all of Tesla's thickness tolerance requirements.
I'm listening to a podcast today and they were talking about the future of NEV. Similar to what BYD has said, China is moving into the next phase of the automotive transition. That is the transition to autonomous vehicles. The Chinese market is right now so far ahead of European and US market in terms of market expectations for luxury vehicles. Now, everyone can make competitive cars that look nice and cost 200 to 300k RMB. The next question is how you can win the smart car race. We see Baidu getting into NEV and going straight to smart car in its JV with Geely. When people look at Jidu, they just think it's a Baidu product. Similarly, Huawei, Xiaomi and possibly Didi are getting into the market with same design philosophy. Any of these tech companies can buy the latest battery technology from CATL or BYD and work with an existing automaker to get efficient motor and ramp up production. A large part of winning the future of NEV world is the smart/autonomous features. As such, a company like BYD will not end up cooperating with Baidu and Huawei. It will seek to crush them in this area. If you cannot win the smart car race, you will just become an electric accessory company that manufactures cars for tech companies. That's kind of where Geely is at already. If NIO cannot make an adjustment, it will fade away.
If you compare that to American and Europe. The top sellers are VW ID.4 or various Tesla models or even Hyundai Ioniq 5. These are not autonomous vehicles. I turn on the autonomous feature on my Tesla and it just gives up after 20 minutes and I can't even use it again for the rest of the trip. And it can't get any better because Tesla doesn't use Lidar or higher pixel camera or more advanced chips.
When Chinese automakers finish their development and really get into American or European market, they are going to shock consumers with the finishing, the range and the smart driving features on their cars. It's going to blow people away.