New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think Tesla will add factories in China outside Shanghai, it's inefficient as they can always get more land in Shanghai. Nonetheless, if they were to expand, it would more likely be Guangzhou compared to Jilin and Beijing, as Shanghai and Guangzhou were the final two locations to choose between for Tesla before.
Elon once big-mouthed 20mil/yr production as Tesla's ultimate goal. At least, he needs to get to 10mil ASAP if there is ever a chance of justifying TSLA levels. Then looking at VW, Toyota or GM. Tesla will have to get at least 2mil/yr out of China ASAP. That would probably be not enough for the China market alone in a few years. If Tesla follows VW trails, Tesla would have to get 4mil/yr out of China eventually, in order to remain in top 3 auto makers in China when EV outsells ICE on yearly basis. Elon is going to kiss Xi's rear for years to come.
 

supercat

Major
Voyah Dreamer goes on sale today in China.
sX6ZDot.jpg


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Quite a few MPVs are coming to the Chinese market:
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Voyah Dreamer goes on sale today in China.
sX6ZDot.jpg


q678L7f.jpg


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Quite a few MPVs are coming to the Chinese market:
I see perforated leather seats. If there is embedded A/C, that would be upscale or even premium. EV and minivan are a perfect union in heaven. If there is a 5G link or a Starlink, it would replace ICE minivans faster than sedans. Battery swap at gas stations and rest areas. Man! I want one!
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Elon once big-mouthed 20mil/yr production as Tesla's ultimate goal. At least, he needs to get to 10mil ASAP if there is ever a chance of justifying TSLA levels. Then looking at VW, Toyota or GM. Tesla will have to get at least 2mil/yr out of China ASAP. That would probably be not enough for the China market alone in a few years. If Tesla follows VW trails, Tesla would have to get 4mil/yr out of China eventually, in order to remain in top 3 auto makers in China when EV outsells ICE on yearly basis. Elon is going to kiss Xi's rear for years to come.

Tesla probably will get to 10 million by 2030 at the latest
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think Tesla will add factories in China outside Shanghai, it's inefficient as they can always get more land in Shanghai. Nonetheless, if they were to expand, it would more likely be Guangzhou compared to Jilin and Beijing, as Shanghai and Guangzhou were the final two locations to choose between for Tesla before.

The issue is that the 2 Tesla factories in Shanghai will be producing in excess of 1 million vehicles per year.
That is far too much supply for the region and also represents a large concentration of risk if anything happens.

So Tesla would be better off with the 3rd factory located in Guangzhou, which would save on transport costs to Southern China and also spread out risk.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Talent and supply chain availability
All the talent will not save Tesla Berlin and what ever battery plants in Germany when input cost will be the highest in the world.
i think the subsidy is for vehicles under 65,000 euro. which can easily crossed in one year at current inflation rate.
before Covid vehicle production was on avg 450K a month. now it is reduced to 250K a month April 2022. before Covid UK car production was on avg over 200K a month. now March 2022 figures are 76k. French figures are now 1/5 of what was decade ago. barely 100K sales a month with highest trade deficits showing complete lack of domestic auto production.
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Red Moon

Junior Member
Apple has been looking to get into car industry for a while and has picked either Foxconn or Luxshare as its car producer. This seems a little strange since neither company are known in this area.
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Looks to me Apple has went to its existing suppliers after finding out that it could not get BYD/CATL to follow its orders. Anyhow, I'm posting this because Chinese social media has speculation that there is a large Chinese NEV company that's very involved in this project. We will see which company that is in the coming days.

The other thing is a report that BYD blade factory is having some issues delivering batteries for an external customer (speculated to be Tesla) due to the extremely high requirement in thickness tolerance (0.03 mm required vs 0.1 mm on normal blade battery). I found this to be quite interesting. I think this is a great learning experience For BYD. As BYD's battery subsidiary keep pushing forward with more external customers, they will have to deal with higher requirements that will probably also bring in higher revenues/cost. It seems like once they've done the work to meet Tesla's requirements, they can pretty much meet anyone's requirement whether that would be VW or Ford or Apple or someone else.

BYD also signed agreement to build a huge factory in Zhengzhou that apparently can product 1 million car a year as well as 30 Gwh of blade battery. The first stage will start production in Mar 30th 2023 and have production capacity of 400k car. The second phase will start production on June 30th 2023 with production capacity of 600k car. If you wonder why BYD's margins isn't higher, they are going through such a huge ramp up right now that requires a lot of new hiring costs and capital costs in new plants which are not going to show up in immediate profits, but will help them capture market share for the future. BYD to me is operating like Amazon right now. Forever expanding and getting into new spaces. A lot of ambitious goals for this company.

New BYD product so far announced in 2022 includes
2022 version Han DMi/DMp
Seal
2022 Tang DMp/EV
Frigate 07
Denza D9 MPV
Denza SUV

Frigate 07 spec is medium to large SUV using with DMi/DMp variant, 200 km range on battery alone, focuses in on the 200 to 300k RMB market. It is a product designed for the worldwide market based on Song platform. Its production base is in Xi'an.

Supposedly, all the models this year are aiming in the 200k+ and 300k+ RMB market. Next year, they will have model in the 400k+ and 500k+ market. I'd be really curious what they come up with for the luxury market, since that will be their first crack in the competitive but also high margin segment. The Seal already looks pretty amazing. I wonder what adding another 150 to 200k would bring to customers.

Apparently, Shanghai local officials really bent over backward to get Tesla production going again. Sounds like they got a good working relationship with Tesla. Tesla has already announced expansion at Shanghai recently to reach 2 million in production level. It's likely they will continue to add factories in China outside of Shanghai. Obvious locations are Jilin and around Beijing area, which are where a lot of the other foreign JV/automakers are based in. I don't think a foreign automaker like Tesla is wiling to take a chance in areas with less automotive industrial base.
Not too long ago (within the last 12 months) Geely reached some agreement with Foxconn, towards developing contract manufacturing in the NEV sector.
 

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
All the talent will not save Tesla Berlin and what ever battery plants in Germany when input cost will be the highest in the world.
i think the subsidy is for vehicles under 65,000 euro. which can easily crossed in one year at current inflation rate.
before Covid vehicle production was on avg 450K a month. now it is reduced to 250K a month April 2022. before Covid UK car production was on avg over 200K a month. now March 2022 figures are 76k. French figures are now 1/5 of what was decade ago. barely 100K sales a month with highest trade deficits showing complete lack of domestic auto production.
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Shit didn't realize the de-industrialization is this bad. What would happen when EU Russia energy commerce fully broken?
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
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The great thing about European auto de-industrialization is that most of these countries (aside from Germany) will have no domestic automaker to protect. And if Chinese brand continue to build factories in Poland and Hungry, they will be able to sell them to European countries without facing the type of local market protection you would see in US or Japan.

A little more on just the sheer incredibly growth coming at BYD
BYDAutoProduction2022.jpg
Here is someone's estimated ramp up to BYD production this year broken down by announced factory capacities. As we previously heard, they probably have a huge backlog of over 400k that's probably ever growing with all the new product launches. And boy, do they need to keep selling cars to deal with the additional capacity coming online or what. So April, they were estimated to be at around 105k. May to September are estimated to be 128k, 148k, 170k, 196k and 215k. All contingent on how much COVID slows things down further. Looks like Hefei and Jinan are coming online in the second half of this year. If this is correct, they are going to probably get to 250k per month by the end of this year. It's definitely not normal to see this level of growth. In dec 2019, they were at around 10k. Dec 2020 was around 25k. Dec 2021 was around 90k. So, possible 25 to 30 time growth in 3 years. Absolutely crazy. Mind boggling to consider how hard it is to ramp up this quickly and train all the workers for this much work. A lot of the legacy automakers have boasted about how they will reach certain level by 2025 or 2030. BYD is actually doing all of this and without any boasting.
 

tphuang

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Here are the announced plants for car production. No year given on when they might reach this, but I assume it would be over the next 2 years.
BYDAutoPlanned.jpg
So basically around 4 million cars a year and this doesn't include the 600k for Zhengzhou that I just mentioned today and other possible announcement coming up or possibly oversea production in places like Thailand or Poland. Based on this and last post, they might get to 3 million a year production rate by the end of this year and possibly 5 million a year production rate by the end of 2023. Again, it is a fair question on whether or not the market can support this level of growth. I would guess a big part of this is the new BYD Dolphin and Sea Gull which will be very competitive in the low end of the market. But if there is one company that can build 20 million NEVs a year by 2030, I would bet on BYD ahead of Tesla.

The planned battery expansion is even more insane.
BYDBatteryPlanned.jpg
You read this correctly. 617 GWh from already announced plant locations, which still does not include any oversea plants that they will likely have to build. It seems to me they will exceed CATL's stated 2025 goal of 670 GWh. Out of the 617 GWh announced, only 150 GWh of that is in production and a good number of those have probably just started production. Keep in mind that these are max production capability. The actual production and installation depends on the number of their own car and customer cars that can be sold. Their battery installation in April was 6.24 GWh, which was about 3 times as much as April 2021 and 7 times as much as April 2020. They were at 75 GWh annualized production rate in April. Let's say by Dec 2023, they do reach vehicle production rate of 250k BEV and 150k PHEV. Let's say on average a BEV needs 60 kwh of battery and PHEV need 18 kwh of battery, then they'd need 18 GWh of battery for that month, or over 200 GWh annualized production rate. They are probably going to have quite a bit of excessive capacity left for customer demand still.
 
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