New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

tphuang

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sndef888 said:
I believe the BYD factory was built before the trade war. Any new investment into the US, especially high profile sectors like cars is going to need very serious risk analysis
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In the same Trump started trade war, they also tried to ban TikTok and WeChat. In both cases, they took it to the courts and got the orders revoked.

The same order was placed on Xiaomi and that got challenged and revoked by the court system too. The fact that BYD has already operated in US for this long and supplied so many contracts in America makes it nearly impossible for any further US administration to designate it as a security risk.
 
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Chish

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tphuang said:
Yet, byd already has a factory in Lancaster California that utilizes union labour.
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BYD is having it easy going in US because it is a majority American owned company dressed up as Chinese. As gelgoog wrote "If BYD hadn't major US investors behind it, and been creating jobs in some key US states, I think BYD would have been sanctioned already."
 
4Runner

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So I was told that Huawei Aito M5 sold about 4000 in March and around 5000 in April. Then I was checking US hot shots Rivian and Lucid. Rivian delivered 2553 in Q1. Lucid's whole target of 2022 is guided down to 12000 - 14000.

Huawei Aito M5 is a HarmonyOS powered smart car. And Huawei repeatedly said it is not intending to be an auto maker. Instead, it is aiming for technology enabler.

From the angle of market cap, here is your top 25:
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I think the stories of Rivian and Lucid peddled by WST are canaries in a wharf. At least they have to beat Huawei Aito. Otherwise this US EV bubble would be somewhat worse than the first internet bubble.
 
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AndrewS

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If I look at BYD sales, their Han Factory is listed as 400 cars per day (146,000 per year) with 1000 workers.

And from the factory videos, it looks like they are still using a traditional assembly line and stamped metal bodywork.

In comparison, we've seen Tesla and Ford implement AGVs which each carry a car body along a virtual assembly line.
This has advantages in:
1. less stress for the workers (who don't have to deal with a moving assembly line)
2. not blocking the entire production line if there is a problem, as the offending car can easily be diverted
3. being easier to expand with another production line.

Single piece aluminium castings also appear to be the way forward in replacing stamped metal.
They should get lower costs and higher quality at the end.

Given the expected sales volumes, how BYD already has a number of auto production sites and how full-electric vehicles are so much simpler to build, I think BYD could go with factories with a much higher production capacity.
 
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yungho

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4Runner said:

Warren Buffett-Backed BYD's Flagship Han EV Sedan Drives Into Brazil: What You Need to Know​

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The reason it catches my eye is VW Santana (桑塔纳). VW essentially ported its Brazil version of Santana to Shanghai when Shanghai VW was formed. Life comes full cycle to me on this story. From Shanghai VW Santana to Shanghai Tesla Model 3, that is history. If anyone in the west still has any doubts on China's renaissance, they just need to read, read and read that piece of history.
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I constantly think about how visionary it was for Buffet to invest in BYD as early as he did. With one move, he captured one of the leaders in EV and battery tech.
 
4Runner

4Runner

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yungho said:
I constantly think about how visionary it was for Buffet to invest in BYD as early as he did. With one move, he captured one of the leaders in EV and battery tech.
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This is an interesting story. It was Li Lu, a former June 4th student leader and the founder of Himalaya Capital, who introduced BYD to Charlie Munger. Charlie is an investor of the Himalaya Capital and think of Li Lu highly as an investor. So people often refers to BYD as a Warren Buffet backed company. But the real story is that Li Lu introduced BYD to Charlie Munger, who convinced Warren Buffet that Wang Chuan Fu, the BYD founder, is the man. The story also said that Warren wanted 20% stake, but Wang Chuan Fu only agreed to sell 10%. Certainly the connection to Charlie greatly helped BYD establish its US subsidiary for the E bus business.
 
FairAndUnbiased

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tphuang said:
Absolutely, letting Tesla in is one of the best decisions china made in a long time. It elevated nev to a different level and helped all the local ev producers since they are now considered to be premium. It also elevated catl as the top battery producer in the world. As long as Chinese battery makers continue to invest in engineering and develop new technology, they will dominate this very crucial new tech field. Not only ev, but home and renewable energy storage is a huge part of our future. Having low cost battery solution and manufacturing allows china control all the renewable solutions.

In Asia, I see Chinese automakers put a lot of Japanese and Korean automakers out of business asean countries start to buy Chinese nev rather than Japanese and Korean ice cars. In us, I think at least one if not more of the big 3 will go under. In Europe, all the legacy automakers will be in trouble. It's just a matter of how many will get bailed out by their home country.

I see byd really be able to pick and choose who it cooperates with. All these legacy players will want their technology and byd can choose the one that gives it the best market access.
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the failure of Japanese and especially Korean car companies to transition to NEV is a huge disadvantage for them.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tphuang said:
Yet, byd already has a factory in Lancaster California that utilizes union labour. Unless there is a war between us and china, there will be no seizure of Chinese assets in america, since china will just be able to seize American assets in china. Don't make the mistake of thinking china is this weakling that can only be the short end of an exchange.

Chinese ev and battery makers will need factoriea in north america if they want to export here or install on cars sold here. I would think Tesla, ford, gm and possible new players like apple, Google or Uber will all want access to lfp batteries. It's a question where the plants will go. I think Canada and Mexico are both possibilities also. Both are also large auto markets not beholden to domestic automakers.
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battery manufacturing is as strategic as oil refining. just like without oil refineries, crude oil can only be burned in primitive furnaces instead of high performance jet and rocket engines, without a battery plant lithium is just some rock in the ground.

that is why CATL refused Apple's request to build a battery plant in the US.
 
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