New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

Keep in mind senator Peter is representing Michigan. A Chinese ev invasion would basically kill Michigan and Ohio. It's not a surprise that the America first slogan worked the best in those two states that got effectively deindustrialized with NAFTA and china trade normalization. The reality is that the big 3 likely to become big 1. The only question is whether it will be done by just Tesla and other us ev company or also by Chinese automakers. There is very real possibility that us will simply ban Chinese automakers to protect its own automakers.

That's why I think it's important for Chinese battery makers integrate itself with legacy automakers. And for byd to get itself to work with American companies that wish to design but not manufacture ev.

You already see the current US government dissing Tesla in favor of GM as they claim electric cars to be the next big thing.
Because of the GM auto workers union. Those unions still carry some weight within Democratic Party structures.
Chinese EV makers would be treated even worse. BYD has mostly been under the radar by mostly selling electric buses. But even there I have seen some political movements aiming at stifling them. If BYD hadn't major US investors behind it, and been creating jobs in some key US states, I think BYD would have been sanctioned already.
You will see a similar dynamic happen in Germany, as the auto and mechanical workers union (IG Metall) is one of the biggest political forces there, so it will be easier to do like Tesla did initially and focus on the Scandinavian market and work from there. The budget car companies can try to start out in the periphery in Eastern and Southern Europe where the Euro car lobby isn't as strong.

Warren Buffett-Backed BYD's Flagship Han EV Sedan Drives Into Brazil: What You Need to Know​

The reason it catches my eye is VW Santana (桑塔纳). VW essentially ported its Brazil version of Santana to Shanghai when Shanghai VW was formed. Life comes full cycle to me on this story. From Shanghai VW Santana to Shanghai Tesla Model 3, that is history. If anyone in the west still has any doubts on China's renaissance, they just need to read, read and read that piece of history.

tphuang said:

Keep in mind senator Peter is representing Michigan. A Chinese ev invasion would basically kill Michigan and Ohio. It's not a surprise that the America first slogan worked the best in those two states that got effectively deindustrialized with NAFTA and china trade normalization. The reality is that the big 3 likely to become big 1. The only question is whether it will be done by just Tesla and other us ev company or also by Chinese automakers. There is very real possibility that us will simply ban Chinese automakers to protect its own automakers.

That's why I think it's important for Chinese battery makers integrate itself with legacy automakers. And for byd to get itself to work with American companies that wish to design but not manufacture ev.

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The issue is battery supply, as there is a huge shortage of lithium

Plus I don't see other automakers getting too close to BYD, simply because BYD is a competitor.
CATL is a more acceptable battery partner for other auto companies that don't or aren't able to design and make their own batteries.

Even with BYD announcing 82 GWh of automotive battery supply coming online within the next 12 months, I still don't think that is enough to satisfy the demand for BYD cars.

tphuang said:

Keep in mind senator Peter is representing Michigan. A Chinese ev invasion would basically kill Michigan and Ohio. It's not a surprise that the America first slogan worked the best in those two states that got effectively deindustrialized with NAFTA and china trade normalization. The reality is that the big 3 likely to become big 1. The only question is whether it will be done by just Tesla and other us ev company or also by Chinese automakers. There is very real possibility that us will simply ban Chinese automakers to protect its own automakers.

That's why I think it's important for Chinese battery makers integrate itself with legacy automakers. And for byd to get itself to work with American companies that wish to design but not manufacture ev.

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Its not a bad idea for chinese EVs like BYD or NIO to build smaller factories (200,000 units a year) just to serve the N.A. market, with design and IP back home. Factory labour is affordable in southern US and if it werent for these factories, chinese auto makers wouldnt be able to sell significant units in NA.

Its similar to the japanese, had honda and toyota never opened thier own factories, it is likely they would be exporting less cars to the US then now. By opening factories in NA, they were able to take away market share from legacy US automakers, therefore weakening them.

What will happen to my favorite V8 engine though in the age of EVs?

j17wang said:

Its not a bad idea for chinese EVs like BYD or NIO to build smaller factories (200,000 units a year) just to serve the N.A. market, with design and IP back home. Factory labour is affordable in southern US and if it werent for these factories, chinese auto makers wouldnt be able to sell significant units in NA.

Its similar to the japanese, had honda and toyota never opened thier own factories, it is likely they would be exporting less cars to the US then now. By opening factories in NA, they were able to take away market share from legacy US automakers, therefore weakening them.

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Not going to happen in the current political climate. The US government has shown they are an untrustworthy entity who will seize foreign assets using excuses

sndef888 said:

Not going to happen in the current political climate. The US government has shown they are an untrustworthy entity who will seize foreign assets using excuses

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Yet, byd already has a factory in Lancaster California that utilizes union labour. Unless there is a war between us and china, there will be no seizure of Chinese assets in america, since china will just be able to seize American assets in china. Don't make the mistake of thinking china is this weakling that can only be the short end of an exchange.

Chinese ev and battery makers will need factoriea in north america if they want to export here or install on cars sold here. I would think Tesla, ford, gm and possible new players like apple, Google or Uber will all want access to lfp batteries. It's a question where the plants will go. I think Canada and Mexico are both possibilities also. Both are also large auto markets not beholden to domestic automakers.

tphuang said:

Yet, byd already has a factory in Lancaster California that utilizes union labour. Unless there is a war between us and china, there will be no seizure of Chinese assets in america, since china will just be able to seize American assets in china. Don't make the mistake of thinking china is this weakling that can only be the short end of an exchange.

Chinese ev and battery makers will need factoriea in north america if they want to export here or install on cars sold here. I would think Tesla, ford, gm and possible new players like apple, Google or Uber will all want access to lfp batteries. It's a question where the plants will go. I think Canada and Mexico are both possibilities also. Both are also large auto markets not beholden to domestic automakers.

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Mexico would be a better option. It's in NAFTA so it has free access to the US, but geopolitically, Mexico is a lot friendlier to China.

tphuang said:

Yet, byd already has a factory in Lancaster California that utilizes union labour. Unless there is a war between us and china, there will be no seizure of Chinese assets in america, since china will just be able to seize American assets in china. Don't make the mistake of thinking china is this weakling that can only be the short end of an exchange.

Chinese ev and battery makers will need factoriea in north america if they want to export here or install on cars sold here. I would think Tesla, ford, gm and possible new players like apple, Google or Uber will all want access to lfp batteries. It's a question where the plants will go. I think Canada and Mexico are both possibilities also. Both are also large auto markets not beholden to domestic automakers.

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I believe the BYD factory was built before the trade war. Any new investment into the US, especially high profile sectors like cars is going to need very serious risk analysis